Space Weather Guide

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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Summary For September 3-9 Category G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms occurred on 04-06 September due to effects from multiple CMEs. Three category R1 (minor) radio blackouts occurred on 06,08, and 09 September due to flare activity from Regions 1560 and 1564. A category S1 (minor) solar radiation storm occurred on 03 and 04 September as a continuation of an event carried over from the previous period. Outlook For September 10-16 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 10 2323 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
********** CORRECTED COPY **********
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1564 (S12W69) produced an M1 flare at 09/2236Z. Regions 1564 and
1567 (N16E14) produced occasional C-class flares. A filament
eruption was observed in SDO 304 imagery at approximately 1000Z from
the southwest quadrant. An associated CME was observed over the
south pole and had an estimated plane of sky speed of 420 km/s.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective at this time, pending
further analysis. Newly numbered Region 1569 (S11E65) rotated onto
the disk as an A-type Hax spot group, although additional trailer
spots appeared to be rotating into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the next three days
(11-13 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
at about 1300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels
during the next three days (11-13 September).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 111
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/005-007/007-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment	GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor	ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data

Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.