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KBD to tOSU. Ouch. November 18, 2012 2 Comments

A friend sent me a text when offensive lineman Ethan Pocic committed to LSU. “Pocic to LSU. His (freaking) brother plays here! When are we going to start keeping these kids at home?”

Um, never? Until Illinois Football has 6-8 years of fighting-for-division-title success, top-50 football players such as Ethan Pocic will never, ever stay home.  Would you?  Saturday nights on national TV or Saturday mornings at 11:00 on BTN overflow?  Until you build it, they won’t come.

But I feel completely different re: basketball.  And, specifically, I feel 1000% different about downstate basketball players.  If there’s a non-Chicago top-50 basketball player, he MUST play at Illinois (in my mind).  Illinois Football will forever watch those kids head other places.  Illinois Basketball must keep them home.

We didn’t.

Keita Bates-Diop from Normal University High, #20 on Rivals’ 2014 rankings, #27 on Scout, #27 on ESPN, picked Ohio State today.  That. Hurts.  I can stomach Chicago kids going elsewhere – everybody recruits Chicago.  But a downstate top-30 kid?  We HAVE to find a way to secure that verbal.

Am I being too dramatic?  Probably – always am.  But look at it this way.  Take the 2001 team.  Now, take Frank Williams (downstate, ranked in the 20′s nationally) off that team.  Still feel good about us reaching the Elite Eight?  Or how about 2003.  What if Brian Cook (ranked around 20, from Lincoln) had picked Ohio State? Take away his 20.0 ppg, and that team is probably too young to contend.  Even last year’s team was led by a downstate top-20 kid in Meyers Leonard.  And now he’s in the NBA.

My point: I don’t expect four and five star kids to join Illini football – we’re just not competitive.  But I do expect them to choose Illinois in basketball.  Some of the Chicago kids, but all of the downstate kids.  We have to get them.  And we didn’t today.

And if any fans know about missing out on in-state talent, it’s Illini basketball fans the last seven years.  Sherron Collins?  Helped Kansas to a national title.  Jon Scheyer?  Helped Duke to a national title.  Evan Turner, he of “Illinois is my leader”? National Player of the Year at Ohio State.  We corrected that later in the Weber years, keeping DJ and Brandon and Meyers and Jereme home, but with players like Sam Thompson heading to Ohio State and now KBD, the players that made us so great 10 years ago are moving to Ohio.

Do I expect to get an Anthony Davis or a Jabari Parker?  Not really.  Players from Illinois that climb to #1 nationally don’t ever pick Illinois (I think Marcus Liberty was the only one in history).  But I expect to compete for the Evan Turners and the Sam Thompsons and the Keita Bates-Diops.  And they all picked Ohio State.

Which, I guess, leads me to another “can you blame them?” situation.  Thad Matta has built a monster at Ohio State.  For the majority of my 25-30 years of obsessive Illini watching, Illinois was a superior basketball program to Ohio State.  But in the last 6-7 years, they’ve jumped over us and accelerated so far ahead that they can’t even see us in their rear-view.  So to a high school junior right now, they really don’t remember a time when Illinois was a dominant basketball program.  Let’s do some quick math… Keita Bates-Diop was likely born in 1996, which means he would have been eight or nine when we were in the Final Four in 2005.  A 16 year-old who has only lived in Illinois for six years doesn’t see us like we see us.  Illinois Basketball isn’t Illinois Basketball to him.

So yes, this one hurts. We only have one scholarship to give in 2014, and in my mind, it was KBD’s and KBD’s alone.  He would have been the perfect fit for the roster John Groce has recruited – an athletic wing who would fit perfectly with the 2013 class.  With him, our 2014/15 season looked really promising.  Without him, well, it’s going to depend on who we get.  Groce has recruited a solid supporting cast.  Now he needs to find a star.  And I think KBD was that star.  That’s pretty depressing.

But…

It’s certainly not the end of the world.  John Groce has all of next summer to take this one scholarship and find a star.  In getting Austin Colbert from New Jersey and getting close with Demetrius Jackson, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, and Tyler Ennis, Groce has shown a willingness go of out-of-state to find the roster he needs.  It’s a long way until signing day, and this staff will have options.

And as I’ve said in this space before, November 2014 is when we’ll know what we need to know about the trajectory of this program under John Groce.  We’ll have six scholarships available on signing day, a solid in-state crop of players, and two full seasons for John Groce to sell his system.  Around the time of the Big Ten/ACC challenge in early December 2014 (Maryland vs. NC State in the B1G/ACC challenge!), we’ll be able to see which way the program is pointing.  That class and 2+ years of results will tell us everything.

After this recent signing class (and three wins to start the season, including an “are we allowed to do that?” double digit comeback), things are certainly pointing up for John Groce.  Kids like Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill will be a big part of the rebuilding of this program.  And it’s very possible that Groce will land a different top-30 kid in the 2014 class, and KBD’s decision to play for Ohio State really means nothing.  And with this article talking about Groce building a relationship with Simeon High School, there’s a chance our 2015 recruiting class could be really special.  If Simeon’s coach saying this doesn’t get you excited…

“When I took over as coach, I had listened to (former coach Bob Hambric),” Smith said. “He said, ‘If you think about sending a kid somewhere, you should think about Illinois, so we could be able to win a national championship, and our kids can be at home winning. At the end of the day, when they’re done playing basketball, they could be at home and possibly get a good job from the alumni.

“It’s great for me. I wouldn’t rather see it any other way. I’d rather have our better kids staying at home like other state schools and give ourselves a chance to win a national championship.”

…I’m not sure what will.

But this loss still stings.  I just feel like we should own downstate, and we didn’t.  And after getting close with Tyler Ennis, Demetrius Jackson, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes but eventually losing, and after missing on a top-30 kid only 50 miles away, we’re still missing that big-time verbal – the Dee Brown, the Sergio/Marcus – that announces our ascent back to the top.

You know, until 2015, when Charles Matthews becomes the top Illini recruit since Deon.

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Author: Robert
Filed Under Category: Basketball Recruiting, Illini Basketball
Article
Comments: 2 Comments

Checking The Score November 17, 2012 6 Comments

It’s been a long time since those 4 seconds of terror. And now twice in one day.

I didn’t stay up to “watch” the basketball game last night. I kept refreshing and refreshing to get 7-10 seconds of video, and then I gave up when we were trailing something like 25-17 in the first half. Radio wasn’t good enough, had to be up at 5:00, no video, bedtime for Robert.

So when I got up at 5:00, I got to revisit my old friend Four Seconds Of Terror. Actually, that’s not a good name. How about It’s Really Unbelievable How Many Thoughts I Can Have While Waiting For The Score To Come Up On My Phone. Clunkier name, but accurate.

My alarm went off, I immediately grabbed my phone, and I chose the Sportacular app as my go-to to get the score. I have the Illini set up as a favorite team (duh), so it’s one click to open the app, and then one click the score. All in all, maybe six seconds. And in those six seconds, here were my thoughts:

“We lost – I know we lost. We were so flat in the first half, and Hawaii was killing us on the boards, and you know what? It’s OK that we lost. I’m good with it. But man oh man what if we won? If we won and came back from that double digit first half deficit, that means this team has some spunk! We might actually capitalize on these seniors! But I need to temper that, because as soon as this score hits my eyes, it’s going to say a loss, and then I have to hope for a .500 Hawaii trip. But what if we MY GOD WE WON. IN OVERTIME!”

I then, of course, hurriedly checked the play by play to see how the overtime ended. And then, after seeing that DJ hit a three at the buzzer, I immediately searched the entire internet (including several Geocities sites) looking for video of said last second shot. At 5:00 in the morning, I don’t think it was available.

The next few minutes were great, going through all the possibilities for this team if Tracy Abrams continues this out-of-nowhere offensive start and if BP3 becomes the leader this team wants to follow. That’s the best part of checking the score of a game where you don’t know the outcome. Outright panic while waiting for the screen to refresh, and then either over-the-top high or deepest-depth low. This morning was a high.

This evening was a low. An expected low, but still a low. The reason I couldn’t go to the game today was an event at my son’s school at 5:00 pm. I watched the start of the second half on my phone on the way there, and then I made a deal with myself. Watching the game at the school: off limits. Twitter and gametracker… that’s… OK? As the event started a little after five, I got to celebrate our TD to make it 13-10.

But then I felt dumb. Was this game really THAT important that I had to keep constantly checking the score? Thoughts like that hit me like a wave. “Am I really That Guy who has to check the score every five minutes? Especially for a 2-9 football team playing a meaningless game?” I emphatically shoved my phone in my pocket and vowed to not check it again. And I didn’t. Seriously enjoyed the Thing at my son’s school, too.

Around 6:45, after we left, I reached for my second score check of the game. I was less nervous for this one. I wasn’t sure how we had scored our first TD, but we hadn’t scored a TD in the six quarters before that one, so I was expecting Purdue’s 13 points to hold up.

But I was still nervous. And my heart was still racing. Once I hit refresh, there did exist the possibility that the score about to reveal itself on the phone would have a higher number behind our name than it did Purdue’s name. And that had me excited. Especially since my last Four Seconds Of Terror had gone so well (with my last update in that game having showed a 10+ point deficit.)

After a season like ours, there’s no more a peaceful moment than the four seconds before the phone refreshes. We haven’t lost (yet). The possibilities are endless. Basketball won at Hawaii on a three-pointer with 0.1 on the clock – WHAT IF FOOTBALL DID THE SAME? What if Taylor Zalewski hit another 50+ yard field goal as time expired for the win? We were only trailing by 3 at last check, so there’s a chance we

Purdue 20, Illinois 17

Back to reality. For a brief second, you grieve the last few moments, where everything was OK and we didn’t just lose our 13th consecutive Big Ten game. Letting my mind wander in those few seconds was actually… fun. The possibilities for Illini football were endless, if for only a moment. This score might show a win! Nope.

I looked up the play-by-play of our scoring drives, but beyond that, I know nothing about the second half of this game. And with no film available, I never know anything about the Hawaii basketball game. That’s usually frustrating, but today, it’s OK. A shot in the arm when I wake up, and then a different way to process an Illini loss. All in all, an enjoyable way to follow the Illini for a day.

But it’s just a fleeting thing. On Monday night/Tuesday morning, I’ll be pacing back and forth while watching the Illini/USC game. And for the rest of the season, more of the same. Except for the Missouri game. I never watch the Missouri game. My yearly holiday gift to myself is the avoidance of all things Braggin’ Rights. So I’ll be doing something else that night.

But then, about 30 minutes after the game was supposed to end (you have to account for the possibility of overtime), I’ll reach into my pocket, and pull up the scores, and my heart will race…..

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Author: Robert
Filed Under Category: Illini Basketball, Illini Football
Article
Comments: 6 Comments

SOC – Purdue November 16, 2012 6 Comments

It’s been one of those days. Only a few hours sleep. Coworker sick for the second day in a row, so I had to help get one of his projects out the door, meaning I’ll have to work on my project over the weekend. And something kicked my allergies into high gear, so I’m typing this through itchy eyes and wheezing lungs. The Zyrtec should knock that out in a couple minutes, but the Zyrtec will also knock me out in a couple minutes. And I have a basketball game to watch tonight.

*makes violin motion*

So the consciousness I’m streaming tonight is of the negative variety. Hey! What say we talk about Illini Football!

Oh, did I mention I won’t be at the game tomorrow? Actually, I think I did mention that. There’s an event at my son’s school at 5:00. The ONE TIME I need a game to be at 11:00, we get a 2:30 start.

My son’s school is a parochial school. The event is in the chapel. I have BTN2go on my phone. Plenty of cell service in there (I’ve checked). If the game is close, I might act out one of those cell phone commercials with a YESSSS at a quiet moment.

OK, let’s be real. I just typed “if the game is close” when talking about our game tomorrow. We just lost to Indiana and Minnesota at home, and here I am all if-the-game-is-close-ing the Purdue game. Purdue can go to a bowl game if they beat us and they beat Indiana. They’re motivated. We, apparently, are not. So even though I want to believe we’re due for a “turnovers are fun” game, it’s just not going to happen tomorrow.

So I’m resigned to “things I’d like to see”:

1) Donovonn Young beast mode. Just keep feeding and feeding and feeding. See what happens if we stick to the run and then don’t abandon the run and then try sticking to the run. Purdue is 85th in rushing defense. Wear them down.

2) Gamble on defense. How ’bout the entire secondary blitzes? What about rushing one and dropping 10? Ok, maybe not those extremes, but please try something different. Try anything.

3) GO FOR IT ON FOURTH AND SHORT. A bowl is gone. The season is lost. I’d totally be find with not punting once tomorrow.

Man, this Zyrtec is really starting to hit. Sooooo…. sleepy….

Might as well wrap this up. The basketball game is starting, the feed is already frozen, I have to get up at 5:00, I’m starting to get a headache, the house is too cold, the orange juice I just drank was starting to go bad, Illini football has lost 12 Big Ten games in a row, and my beard looks terrible today. Today… was not a good day.

Purdue 23, Illinois 7

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Author: Robert
Filed Under Category: Illini Football
Article Tags: Stream of Consciousness
Comments: 6 Comments

Check The Tape – Minnesota 5 Comments

More behind the scenes discussion on the inner-workings of ALE Inc!

I produce these screencaps using BTN2go. I used to watch game tape on the DVR – now I just re-watch the games online. Sometimes, BTN2go is slow. My theory is that once basketball season starts, and a bunch of IU basketball fans are going there to watch the Indiana/Bryant replay, then bandwidth is compromised. Or something. The tubes are clogged. I don’t know. Which means I get a screen that locks up or only plays at low quality.

So I tried to watch the tape Monday night after the St. Francis basketball game but I couldn’t even get on. Tried again Tuesday but the video kept crashing and I’d have to start over. Wednesday night I wrote about the signing class, and then driving home yesterday, I had an idea. Instead of watching the entire tape and pausing it at things that stick out, maybe I should just do this Check The Tape randomly. Pick some random part of the game, screencap whatever pops up at that time, and then discuss whatever is happening on the screen at that moment. Sort of a Check The Tape blind nil.

Some of these pics were when the “tape” was streaming at high quality. Some at “medium” and “low” (as you will see). But this is the best I can do for Check The Tape this week. Ten random points during the game. Here’s the first one.
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I was excited that this was the first spot I randomly picked on the tape. An actual formation! I though in doing this I might just get a bunch of stillframes of Jerry Kill on the sideline.

In that pic, you see our alignment on the very important third and goal play. Notice this is our twin tackles formation where we flip Simon Cvijanovic over to the same side as Hugh Thornton. See also: this is us telling every Minnesota coach and player that we’re running left. And they stopped us. And we had to kick a field goal. For our only points of the game. This is depressing.

OK, picture #2:
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Minnesota punting. What I liked about this play: Tim Beckman calling a timeout so they’d have to kick into the wind. What I didn’t like about this play: a few of our blockers whiffing on the initial block, giving the Minnesota coverage team plenty of guys running free. Hint: you don’t want coverage team guys running free.

This next one is a doozy.
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I guess this was was “use your head” gesture to someone on the field. But really, it’s just Tim Beckman pointing at his head. It’s almost… art.
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Not much to evaluate here. Just Minnesota’s freshman quarterback, Minnesota’s offensive line – all freshman and sophomores, and our fourth-year defensive tackle who, last year, anchored the #7 defense in the land. Minnesota came into our stadium, with a freshman/sophomore offensive line, averaging 159 yards rushing per game, and put up 240 rushing yards against our experienced defense? RIP, “Illinois’ line struggles are due to youth” excuse. If Minnesota can piece together a young line – MINNESOTA – then we MUST find a combination that works. For these last two games and for next year.

Apparently there was a lot to talk about with that picture. Man, I really need to stop this tape at some game action.
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But not this time. All we get here is Nate walking on the field. Let’s see… what can we evaluate. Wait – the helmet stickers. Has anyone else been wondering why we don’t have any players with sticker-riddled helmets? When the stickers showed up for the Arizona State game, I was thinking they’d start to overtake the helmet of some of our top players. But I really haven’t seen an overtaken helmet yet. Nate’s helmet here has nearly the same number of white stickers and blue stickers. WON’T SOMEONE EXPLAIN THE STICKERS?

This is riveting stuff, isn’t it? Helmet stickers and Beckman pointing at his head. This was a great idea.
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OK – now we’re talkin’. Actual game tape. And I smell irony: the spot where I randomly stopped the tape for a screenshot just so happens to be a shot of our pocket collapsing and our quarterback about to be bent in half.

I’m not sure I need to show this again this season. If we can’t build more pocket time, nearly every QB in college football would struggle to get the ball off. Except for Johnny Football. Johnny Football would have thrown a double touchdown pass from that collapsed pocket.
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OK, I cheated on this one. When the picture came up, it was somewhere else on the field. But after I got my screencap of that I let it play, and this statistic immediately popped up. Besides being 119th nationally in tackles-for-loss-against, is there a more stunning statistic than this one? In Paul Petrino’s system, Nate had 38 passes over 25 yards. In this system, he has two.

And yes, I was one of those “good riddance, Paul” people. Ummm… come back, Paul? And bring your brother?

(not really)

(ok, maybe)
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YES! Time to break down some band film.

Cymbal #3 – what are you DOING? Everyone else is all “I’ll play my cymbals down here” and you’re all “I WILL CYMBAL HOWEVER I WANT FOR I AM CYMBALTIUS THE GREEK GOD OF CLANGING METAL”

If Cymbal #3 doesn’t improve in this last home game, no question he gets Creaned and we replace him with a hotshot freshman next fall.
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Back to life. Back to reality.

The worst team in the Big Ten. It hurts so much I have to say it again. We’re the worst team in the Big Ten. Most populous state in the Big Ten footprint… and the worst football team. Worse than Indiana. Worse than Northwestern.

The pill gets more and more bitter every year.
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And to add insult to injury, the final screencap is right after Nate’s inexplicable fumble. Ryan Lankford is about to tackle the fumble recovererer. Jon Davis is about to get lit up by Troy Stoudermire. I mean lit up and sent into next week.

Hmmm… that feels… familiar.

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Author: Robert
Filed Under Category: Illini Football
Article Tags: Check The Tape
Comments: 5 Comments

Signing Day Thoughts November 14, 2012 9 Comments

I do most of my writing in this space between 9:00 pm and 1:00 am. (Hurray! Another “how the sausage is made” post!) My wife and kids go to sleep around 9:00, and then it’s Blog Time. Many times I wait until the next morning to review what I’ve written before publishing it. Sometimes I edit. Sometimes I trash it. Nearly every time I’m embarrassed by something I wrote that, at the time, I thought was funny.

Because my window during the week is 3-4 late-night hours, and because most Illini news happens while the sun is shining, I always struggle with writing about things that feel like yesterday’s news. Like tonight, for example. I want to write about this signing class, but if you’re like me, you already read 7 articles about this class today. You know all of their middle names. You have their stats memorized. You know the name of the condition Malcolm Hill was hospitalized for this summer. What could I tell you that you don’t already know?

The only way to rid myself of this frustration, of course, is to write about things as they happen during the day. But I also like keeping my job and feeding my children. So 9:00 to 1:00 each night is all I can give right now. Some day, when ALE reaches Total Illini Internet Domination, maybe you’ll get seven posts per day. But for now, it’s Late Night With Robert.

Three random thoughts on the 2013 Illini Basketball signing class:

ALE Recruiting Website Team Ranking Consensus

I shall do as the RSCI does in determining just where this class ranks nationally. Here’s the numbers:

Rivals: 10th
Scout: 18th
ESPN: 23rd
CBS Sports: 16th

10 + 18 + 23 + 16 = 67
67 / 4 = 16.75
16.75 rounded up = 17

Through the wonders of math, John Groce brought in the 17th best recruiting class in the country this year. With 7 months to work with and his lead recruiting assistant leaving after only two months, that’s ridiculously impressive.

Will it bring us back to the Dee/Deron/Augie days? No (although he got close to that with Demetrius Jackson and Xavier Rathan-Mayes). But for a first class, it’s really, really good.

Illini recruiting classes with three consensus top-100 players since the Recruiting Services Consensus Index was put together in 1998.

2002: Dee Brown, Deron Williams, James Augustine, Aaron Spears
2010: Jereme Richmond, Meyers Leonard, Crandall Head
2011: Mike Shaw, Tracy Abrams, Myke Henry, Nnanna Egwu
2013: Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill, Austin Colbert

The next step for John Groce: pulling in top-50 RSCI players. Weber’s 2011 class and Groce’s 2013 class were very solid, but they lack the top-end talents like Marcus Griffin, Frank Williams, and Brian Cook. This is a great start, but Groce really needs a top-25 kid to add to the mix with our one 2014 scholarship. OHAI, KEITA BATES-DIOP, #20 PLAYER IN 2014 AND ONLY 50 MILES AWAY FROM CAMPUS.

One more thing. On paper, this recruiting class is better than Bill Self’s first class at Illinois. And it’s better than Bruce Weber’s first class at Illinois. And Bruce Weber’s second class at Illinois. And Bruce Weber’s third class at Illinois. And Bruce Weber’s fourth class at Illinois. And Bruce Weber’s fifth class at Illinois.

Restarting Five

That’s a working title. But as John Groce RESTARTS our program, he chose to fill out his first class with an entire team. Jaylon Tate is a pure point guard, Kendrick Nunn a shooting guard with the emphasis on shooting, Malcolm Hill a wing guard with the emphasis on wing, Austin Colbert an up-and-down-the-floor four, and Maverick Morgan a space eater in the middle.

How does that fit with next year’s roster? Well, I see the starters being Tracy Abrams, Rayvonte Rice, Joseph Bertrand, Myke Henry, and Nnanna Egwu. So Colbert and Morgan will come in and immediately compete with Mike Shaw and Ibby Djimde for backup frontcourt minutes. And I think Kendrick Nunn is probably the guy that fits best with that backcourt, as none of those three starters are known as shooters. I think Nunn and Malcolm Hill will be able to find minutes if they can score. And with only one point guard on the roster in Abrams, Jaylon Tate has a chance to play right away as well.

So I don’t see any redshirts in this Restarting Five. Which means there’s a chance that by the time they’re all seniors, they’ll be our starting five.

But In 2015…

At some point, John Groce is going to need to get our class balance back on track. The current roster consists of four seniors, one (redshirt) junior, five sophomores, and one (redshirt) freshmen (plus walkon Mike LaTulip). So after bringing in five in this class, we’ll have one senior, six juniors (with Rice is added in), one sophomore, and these five freshmen. If that doesn’t change, we’ll just keep getting sick on this roller coaster. Class of one in 2014. Then six in 2015. Then one again in 2016.

For the most part, this problem will take care of itself. There will be attrition (there’s always attrition), and we’ll stack those scholarships in the empty classes. We won’t be on the roller coaster forever.

But this class imbalance reveals one other thing. And since I like to exaggerate, here goes:

The 2015 Illini recruiting class is the most important basketball recruiting class since the 1994 post-probation recruiting class. This year was a late start (and Groce still did an outstanding job). Year number 2 is usually when a coach brings in his statement class, but we only have one available scholarship for the 2014 class. So 2015 it is. Bold prediction just because ILLINI BASKETBALL IS FUN AGAIN:

Top-5 class nationally in 2015, headlined by top-10, best-Illini-recruit-since-Deon-Thomas Charles Matthews. Mark it down. In ink.

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Author: Robert
Filed Under Category: Basketball Recruiting, Illini Basketball
Article Tags: Signing Day
Comments: 9 Comments
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