I feel the need to clarify some things about our friend the Turnover Fairy. I’ve talked about her for several years now, so on Twitter, it’s become a thing. Nearly every time our defense gets a turnover, someone tweets “Turnover Fairy” to me. I do like that.

But not every turnover is gifted by the Turnover Fairy. Just most. Let me explain.

The Turnover Fairy gets her hand in most every fumble recovery. Once the ball is out, recovering that ball is mostly luck. It’s an oblong ball that bounces funny, so while teaching your defensive players to chase every play just in case a ball pops out can help your fumble recovery rate increase a little bit, it’s still mostly a 50/50 thing. Sometimes the ball pops out and Team A recovers – sometimes Team B recovers. Over the course of a season, it mostly balances out.

Unless the Turnover Fairy gets involved, waving her magic wand and making sure not a single fumble bounces your way. 50/50? HA! She scoffs at your idea of justice.

Last year she famously chose Michigan (I say “famously” because the college blogosphere was alive in the offseason with debates about Michigan’s fumbles in 2011). Michigan fumbled 19 times on the season last year and only lost 6 of those fumbles. And on defense, Michigan forced 25 fumbles and recovered 20 of them. Stunning statistics, really. 33 of the 44 fumbles in Michigan games bounced their way. It’s a 50/50 deal, and they hit 75/25.

Care to see the flipside of that? This year, Illinois’ defense has forced 26 fumbles, one more than Michigan forced last year. How many have we recovered? 10.

This year, Illinois’ offense has coughed up the ball 21 times. And they’ve lost 15 of those 21 fumbles. 31 of the 47 fumbles in Illini games have gone against us. Not as crazy as Michigan’s 75% above, but 34% is no joke. And it reveals that the Turnover Fairy hates us.

Please note that while it’s hard to quantify, there is some skill in recovering fumbles. The better teams are usually better at it – swarming defenses seem to always fall on the ball. But still, those “skill” areas can move the needle a few percentage points. Michigan didn’t get to 75% because they were awesome, nor did Illinois get to 34% because we’re awful. Really, it’s not that. It’s simply that when the ball hits the ground, the defense has a better chance of recovery (usually many more players around the ball). So when you take a teams percentage of fumbles lost and percentage of fumbles gained, it usually averages out around 50%.

Here’s what I mean. Remember the play that broke the Louisiana Tech game wide open? Justin Green is blocking on a punt return, the ball hits his leg, and Louisiana Tech recovers in the endzone for a touchdown?

Well we had a similar play last week. Not near the goal line, but the ball hit a Purdue player in the leg. Right there it’s anyone’s ball. If it bounces one way, it’s ours – if it bounces the other way, it’s there’s. Completely up to the oblong ball at that point.

Guess what happened.

Yep. The ball bounced directly to a Purdue player. Because of course it did. Two “ball hit the leg of someone on the punt team” plays this season, neither went our way.

OK, time to disclaim, because I know many of you are already fully down the Misinterpretation Highway and ready to claim that I’m blaming turnover luck on a 2-9 season. Of course that’s not what I’m doing. (“THEN WHY EVEN BRING IT UP BLOG BOY?”) Because it’s a mystery. The “make your own luck” mystery. Why are we so bad at it? As any realistic Michigan fan (both of them) and they’ll tell you that nobody gets to 75% without an enormous amount of luck. And this year they’re back to normal – 15 of the 29 fumbles in Michigan games have gone their way. Right around 50%. As it is with the majority of teams. So why are we so bad at it? “Turnover Fairy hates us” is the only answer I have.

And it’s not just fumbles. The majority of interceptions are not the work of the turnover fairy. They’re bad passes and great defensive plays. But she does have a hand in some of them – the deflected pass. Once that pass is up in the air, it’s up to her where it deflects. Sometimes it’s straight into the turf. Sometimes it’s right to a safety or a cornerback. Sometimes it’s to an offensive lineman who falls over the goal line on a two point conversion. Sometimes it’s directly into the air and right back to the receiver in stride in the second overtime at Michigan to force a third overtime where we lost.

And sometimes it’s this.

That ball could go anywhere. We have five guys who could catch it (two not in this screenshot), Purdue has 2. Guess what happens.

As you see in this shot, there’s really only one spot where that could have deflected and the Purdue player have a shot at it. Because of course it did.

But the Turnover Fairy wasn’t done. THE VERY NEXT PLAY.

Just think of the possibilities here. The only place this deflected pass could fall would be directly behind him. He’d have to only get a tiny piece of the ball and have it not glance to the left or to the right for this one to fall incomplete. Because Ashante Williams is right there.

Oh hey look – it deflected to the one spot where it could fall harmlessly.

Would these plays have made a difference in the game? Probably, but maybe not. In a three point game, turnovers like that (especially the muffed punt) can really be the difference.

Would these plays and others this season, leading to our 2-9 record, have made a difference? No. Just look at our offensive numbers and see that without the ability to consistently move the ball, this team was going nowhere.

But why does the Turnover Fairy have to add insult to injury? Why do the 50/50 balls become 34/66 in our hands? You can’t tell me it’s just “bad football players don’t recover fumbles”. There are lots of bad football teams that get every bounce (Minnesota 2008) and good football teams that get none (Oklahoma a few years ago).

Anyone remember the Rose Bowl? The forced fumble caught in the air. The fumble the bounced directly to Joe McKnight. No, we weren’t winning that game. But why the insults, Turnover Fairy?

A winning football program at Illinois is hard enough. The Turnover Fairy turning her back on us just makes it that much harder.

These Players Needed That

Tyler Griffey needed those two dagger threes. He was great in Maui – all six games this season, really – but he still needed a moment. It’s his senior year, and the first three years certainly didn’t go as he had planned. Now, in his final go around, it couldn’t be going better. Those two back-to-back dagger three pointers were The Moment in this game. From a scary 7 point lead to a solid 13 point lead in what seemed like 15 seconds. Attaboy, Tyler.

DJ Richardson needed this Maui win. He was Big Ten Freshman of the Year three years ago, and then sophomore struggles and more junior struggles. By the middle part of last year, he appeared to be so broken that most of us thought he’d never return. Tonight? He’s back. 14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and two beautiful baseline drives at key moments in the game that told the world “yes, I’m more than just a three point shooter”.

Yes, “the world”. It’s the Wednesday night before Thanksgiving, and millions of people are out and about. Most of them at bars. With flatscreen TV’s. Showing ESPN. From Charlotte to Spokane, bros are leaning over to their bros at the bar and saying “hey man, Illinois looks pretty good.”

Man did we need that.

This Fanbase Needed That

If you hang around other Illini fans on the internet – in the comments here, on a message board, on Twitter, etc. – you know that we’re not a very happy bunch of late. Quite bitter, actually. We just endured the worst six year stretch of Illini basketball since the 1970′s, and this fall, Illini football fell off it’s third cliff in 15 years.

We fight with each other, we try to one-up each other with declarations of players and coaches being busts – we’re just generally very sour. So this run through Maui couldn’t have come at a better time. No, that doesn’t do it justice – this run through Maui was a glass of water in a 104 degree day at the Grand Canyon climbing the 16 miles up the trail from the bottom to the top after your water jug went dry. Every ounce of this fanbase needed that.

I just checked a few postgame threads on Illini message boards – it’s after midnight and nobody is sleeping. Lots and lots of virtual high fives right now. Yeah, there are a few “it was just USC, Chaminade, and Butler” folks, but they’re shouted down with the 57th “ILLINI BASKETBALL IS FUN AGAIN” declaration. Man did we need this.

John Groce Needed That

When we went looking for a coach in March, many of you – myself included – would have much rather had the guy on the other bench tonight. Some still do. And nearly everyone wanted Shaka Smart. John Groce arrived under nearly the exact circumstances as Tim Beckman: probably the third choice, maybe the fourth or fifth, unknown coach from the MAC.

Things have started just a tiny bit differently for Groce. But even before this weekend, there were still lots of questions about Groce. He brought in a great recruiting class in his first go-around, headlined by Kendrick Nunn, but it could have been even more outstanding. He finished second for Tyler Ennis. He finished second for Demetrius Jackson. He finished second for Xavier Rathan-Mayes. And just a few days ago he lost 2014 recruit Keita Bates-Diop to his old boss Thad Matta. If we’re going to climb back to the very top, we’re going to have to win some of those.

So in this fan environment, and with a stinging local recruiting loss just this week, John Groce needed a solid run through Hawaii. That’s just what he got. A destruction of USC (who beat Texas and then hung with Marquette today before losing), a beatdown of Chaminade, and then a decisive, steady, any-punch-you-can-do-I-can-do-better win over a tough Butler team that just beat UNC and Marquette.

And don’t think recruits aren’t noticing. Oh, hi there, top-5-player-in-2014 Cliff Alexander on Twitter tonight:

i think its the new coaching staff thats why Illinois playing like this

John Groce needs that.

I Needed That

Do you know what it does to my heart to see this when I go to ESPN.com?

It reminds me of those days where I’d stay up to watch SportsCenter after every single Illini basketball win. Even if we weren’t ranked, I wanted to revel in the 23 seconds of highlights in case they showed them. I lived for the 1:30 am SportsCenter with Craig Kilborn and Karl Ravech back then – once they showed me the Illini highlights (many times from a game I had just attended), I could sleep. Seeing our highlights on SportsCenter made me feel like we were relevant in the world of college athletics. Back in the mid-90′s, we were fighting to regain relevance again. Then we climbed to the mountain top. Then we tumbled all the way down.

And now it feels like we’re officially on our way back. Yes, this is a crazy difficult Big Ten – three teams in the Top 5. We won’t be “back” until we’re one of those top-5 teams again. And as John Groce said in the postgame radio interview, we still have a long way to go. We have to keep improving every game if we’re going to compete in this deep conference.

But I’m beyond satisfied with what I’ve seen so far. We never once trailed in Maui. If I recall correctly, we jumped out to a 10 point lead before we reached 25 points in all three games. Brad Stevens made some nice defensive adjustments, so Groce punched back. We needed to get into the lane, so Abrams and Paul took the ball to the hoop. Butler cut it to 6, and we counterpunched. And then Brandon Paul iso to close it out. Beautiful.

I got texts from friends tonight saying things like “this is so much fun!” – it’s been a long time since that happened. My step-dad and I were texting back and forth tonight, things like “love the coaching” and “playing as a team” – it’s been quite a while since we could do that. My mom will say something like “how about those Illini!” when I arrive at her house tomorrow for Turkey Day – I haven’t heard that phrase in years.

Yeah, we all needed this. We all needed a chance to sit around the Thanksgiving table and, when moms do their mommiest thing ever and ask everyone to say what they’re thankful for, get to say “Illini basketball” again. We’re officially on our way back, and it couldn’t feel better.

I-L-L

With Maryland moving to the Big Ten, the fantastically awesome Washington DC sports blog Mister Irrelevant went looking for a Big Ten fan to describe Big Ten fans to them. A “Hater’s Guide To The Big Ten”. Somehow they settled on me.

Whenever my words go elsewhere, I work really hard on it. I don’t know why – they’re all going up on the same internet. But I really wanted to get this one right. And whenever I really want to get one right, and I feel like I do, I become a proud parent of those words. I want that post pinned to the refrigerator.

But this wasn’t my concept – it was their idea and I just wrote it – so I can’t really repost the same words here. Besides, they have a pretty fantastic site over there. I want any and all ALE readers to give them a click.

You know what? I’ll just tease some of it here and then give you the link to do the rest. That way I get to pin this to the fridge AND you’ll still click over there to read all of it. Here’s the intro and the first few teams. A Hater’s Guide To The Big Ten.

Being an Illinois fan is a bit, I don’t know – schizophrenic. We can reach unspeakable highs and unbelievable lows, all in a short span of time. In football that means two BCS bowls in the last twelve years… and also five seasons with a 1-7 or 0-8 conference finish. In those same 12 years, Illini Basketball went 74-22 in conference the first six years, including a title game appearance in 2005… and then 50-56 the last six years.

So as an Illinois fan, I feel uniquely qualified to write this. We’ve received invites to the Christmas party at Ohio State’s house (Nebraska got crazy drunk), but we also found ourselves stuck at an office party with Minnesota, wearing a short sleeve shirt and a tie, talking to Purdue about the fiscal cliff.

Having gotten to know each fanbase up close and personal for the last decade or so, I present to you The Hater’s Guide To The Big Ten For Terps Fans. Insider knowledge with just the right amount of Illini insecurity.

Nebraska
I start with Nebraska because they’re the latest entrant, having joined the B1G only two years ago. Wait, sorry, you’ll have to learn that. We don’t type “Big Ten” or “Big 10″. Once the logo changed with Nebraska’s addition, we just say “B1G” now, or “Bee One Gee”. OK, we don’t actually say “Bee One Gee”. I just wanted to see if you’d bite so I can snicker in the corner when you say “Bee One Gee” to Penn State at Ohio State’s Christmas party.

The only thing you need to hate about Nebraska fans is how well they travel. This is not an exaggeration – at the first Marlyand/Nebraska football game at Byrd Stadium, there will be 20,000 Nebraska fans there. Nobody knows where they come from. They’re like the 17-year locusts.

TV/Movie Character that best describes a Nebraska Fan: Hans Gruber, Die Hard. You hate him, but you kind of have a soft spot for him. And you struggle to understand what he’s saying when he’s angry.

Michigan
I have a friend who got divorced 17 months after he met his ex-wife. Met, engaged, married, divorced, all within the gestation period of a sperm whale. I remember him telling me how he couldn’t believe how much he fought with someone he didn’t even know 15 months prior.

That’s how you’ll feel about Michigan. You’ll barely get into the introductory period before you hate them. But deep down, in places you never talk to your friends about, you know you hate them because they’re better than you.

TV/Movie Character: Derek from Step Brothers. A word of advice. Never, ever ask a Michigan fan “are bonito fish big?”

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…but I don’t care. No chance I could go to sleep right now. I feel like I just watched a rebirth.

OK, disclaimers. It was just USC. They’re supposed to be much improved this year, but they might be awful again. We might look back on this game in three months and see that we beat an awful team.

And yes, we’ll need more inside. Of our bigs, Myke Henry has an outside game, Tyler Griffey’s offense is that of a two guard, and Nnanna would rather take the 15 footer than post someone up. Only McLovin has a back-to-the-basket, get-the-tough-rebound game. So everything written about this team between now and March will have a “but when the shots aren’t falling…” disclaimer attached. We’ll have to shoot well to win.

But with that out of the way, FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN. Watching this game was so much fun. As I said on Twitter, the only time I can remember being dumbfounded by a first half of Illini basketball was the Gonzaga game in the Wooden Classic in late 2004. For me, that was my “wow, this team is pretty incredible” moment. We had a hint in the Cincy tournament game, and we saw it in action against the #1 team in the land against Wake Forest, but that Gonzaga first half was something else.

This USC first half was something else. No, we’re not going to make 11 shots in a row again this season. But it wasn’t just the shots. It was the defense. And the passing. And the hustle. And the determination. And the smiles on their faces. And the togetherness. And the relentlessness. (And the 57 points.)

I jumped up off my couch three times before deciding to stand. When I wanted to tweet something, I’d literally run over to the laptop (phone takes my eyes off the screen too long) and then run back to the TV screen eight feet away. When Brandon Paul dunked that reverse alley-oop, I did this fist punching modern dance thing that had the dog thinking it was the morning. They were having fun out there. I was having fun in here.

And I think that was the best part of tonight. As I’ve said many times here, I believe DJ was the one player most hurt by the “don’t shoot that” coaching style of Bruce Weber. With the helicopter parent hovering, he struggled to find a groove. To see him as smiling and high-fiving and fist bumping and clapping on defense as he got into his stance – man, that was so great to see.

Tyler Griffey, too. The freedom to shoot and to drive and to be aggressive – he has to be loving life. He’s now 7-14 from three on the season. Love the pick and pop.

And Tracy Abrams? Who expected this from Abrams? Who expected 15.3 points per game and 5 assists per game this early in his career? I’ve been worried about a first year surge and then, after these seniors graduate, a second year slump for John Groce. But if Abrams can keep playing like this, maybe next year he can combine with JoeBert, Rayvonte Rice, and the freshmen to compose a similar, aggressive backcourt.

Most of all, I’m just excited that we’re aggressive. I’m excited about the brand of basketball that we play. When a top-5 recruit like Cliff Alexander tweets “Illinois looking good tonight”, you can’t help but think that John Groce has this thing pointed in the right direction.

And now, a Division II opponent that just played out of their minds to beat Texas. After we take care of business there, a spot in the finals on ESPN Wednesday night, most likely against North Carolina. Remember when you’d come home from college for Thanksgiving, and that Wednesday night was the big night to see everyone you hadn’t seen all fall? And how it still happens today, with people back in their hometowns for Thanksgiving, meeting up with old friends at the local watering hole?

The game that’s always on in the background that night? The final of the Maui Invitational. I remember just such a scenario in late 2000 when we played Arizona and Sean Harrington nearly shot us back into the game. Wednesday night, “hey, I haven’t seen you in forever”, Maui final in the background.

Well, this Wednesday night, that game will likely be Illinois vs. North Carolina. As it should be.

A friend sent me a text when offensive lineman Ethan Pocic committed to LSU. “Pocic to LSU. His (freaking) brother plays here! When are we going to start keeping these kids at home?”

Um, never? Until Illinois Football has 6-8 years of fighting-for-division-title success, top-50 football players such as Ethan Pocic will never, ever stay home.  Would you?  Saturday nights on national TV or Saturday mornings at 11:00 on BTN overflow?  Until you build it, they won’t come.

But I feel completely different re: basketball.  And, specifically, I feel 1000% different about downstate basketball players.  If there’s a non-Chicago top-50 basketball player, he MUST play at Illinois (in my mind).  Illinois Football will forever watch those kids head other places.  Illinois Basketball must keep them home.

We didn’t.

Keita Bates-Diop from Normal University High, #20 on Rivals’ 2014 rankings, #27 on Scout, #27 on ESPN, picked Ohio State today.  That. Hurts.  I can stomach Chicago kids going elsewhere – everybody recruits Chicago.  But a downstate top-30 kid?  We HAVE to find a way to secure that verbal.

Am I being too dramatic?  Probably – always am.  But look at it this way.  Take the 2001 team.  Now, take Frank Williams (downstate, ranked in the 20′s nationally) off that team.  Still feel good about us reaching the Elite Eight?  Or how about 2003.  What if Brian Cook (ranked around 20, from Lincoln) had picked Ohio State? Take away his 20.0 ppg, and that team is probably too young to contend.  Even last year’s team was led by a downstate top-20 kid in Meyers Leonard.  And now he’s in the NBA.

My point: I don’t expect four and five star kids to join Illini football – we’re just not competitive.  But I do expect them to choose Illinois in basketball.  Some of the Chicago kids, but all of the downstate kids.  We have to get them.  And we didn’t today.

And if any fans know about missing out on in-state talent, it’s Illini basketball fans the last seven years.  Sherron Collins?  Helped Kansas to a national title.  Jon Scheyer?  Helped Duke to a national title.  Evan Turner, he of “Illinois is my leader”? National Player of the Year at Ohio State.  We corrected that later in the Weber years, keeping DJ and Brandon and Meyers and Jereme home, but with players like Sam Thompson heading to Ohio State and now KBD, the players that made us so great 10 years ago are moving to Ohio.

Do I expect to get an Anthony Davis or a Jabari Parker?  Not really.  Players from Illinois that climb to #1 nationally don’t ever pick Illinois (I think Marcus Liberty was the only one in history).  But I expect to compete for the Evan Turners and the Sam Thompsons and the Keita Bates-Diops.  And they all picked Ohio State.

Which, I guess, leads me to another “can you blame them?” situation.  Thad Matta has built a monster at Ohio State.  For the majority of my 25-30 years of obsessive Illini watching, Illinois was a superior basketball program to Ohio State.  But in the last 6-7 years, they’ve jumped over us and accelerated so far ahead that they can’t even see us in their rear-view.  So to a high school junior right now, they really don’t remember a time when Illinois was a dominant basketball program.  Let’s do some quick math… Keita Bates-Diop was likely born in 1996, which means he would have been eight or nine when we were in the Final Four in 2005.  A 16 year-old who has only lived in Illinois for six years doesn’t see us like we see us.  Illinois Basketball isn’t Illinois Basketball to him.

So yes, this one hurts. We only have one scholarship to give in 2014, and in my mind, it was KBD’s and KBD’s alone.  He would have been the perfect fit for the roster John Groce has recruited – an athletic wing who would fit perfectly with the 2013 class.  With him, our 2014/15 season looked really promising.  Without him, well, it’s going to depend on who we get.  Groce has recruited a solid supporting cast.  Now he needs to find a star.  And I think KBD was that star.  That’s pretty depressing.

But…

It’s certainly not the end of the world.  John Groce has all of next summer to take this one scholarship and find a star.  In getting Austin Colbert from New Jersey and getting close with Demetrius Jackson, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, and Tyler Ennis, Groce has shown a willingness go of out-of-state to find the roster he needs.  It’s a long way until signing day, and this staff will have options.

And as I’ve said in this space before, November 2014 is when we’ll know what we need to know about the trajectory of this program under John Groce.  We’ll have six scholarships available on signing day, a solid in-state crop of players, and two full seasons for John Groce to sell his system.  Around the time of the Big Ten/ACC challenge in early December 2014 (Maryland vs. NC State in the B1G/ACC challenge!), we’ll be able to see which way the program is pointing.  That class and 2+ years of results will tell us everything.

After this recent signing class (and three wins to start the season, including an “are we allowed to do that?” double digit comeback), things are certainly pointing up for John Groce.  Kids like Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill will be a big part of the rebuilding of this program.  And it’s very possible that Groce will land a different top-30 kid in the 2014 class, and KBD’s decision to play for Ohio State really means nothing.  And with this article talking about Groce building a relationship with Simeon High School, there’s a chance our 2015 recruiting class could be really special.  If Simeon’s coach saying this doesn’t get you excited…

“When I took over as coach, I had listened to (former coach Bob Hambric),” Smith said. “He said, ‘If you think about sending a kid somewhere, you should think about Illinois, so we could be able to win a national championship, and our kids can be at home winning. At the end of the day, when they’re done playing basketball, they could be at home and possibly get a good job from the alumni.

“It’s great for me. I wouldn’t rather see it any other way. I’d rather have our better kids staying at home like other state schools and give ourselves a chance to win a national championship.”

…I’m not sure what will.

But this loss still stings.  I just feel like we should own downstate, and we didn’t.  And after getting close with Tyler Ennis, Demetrius Jackson, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes but eventually losing, and after missing on a top-30 kid only 50 miles away, we’re still missing that big-time verbal – the Dee Brown, the Sergio/Marcus – that announces our ascent back to the top.

You know, until 2015, when Charles Matthews becomes the top Illini recruit since Deon.

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