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Official Estimates of the TaepoDong-2 By Philip Maxon
Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates provided the latest estimated range and timeline of the North Korean ICBM, the TaepoDong-2. According to Gates, the DPRK is within five years of being able to strike the continental United States, combined with its expanding nuclear program, the country is becoming a direct threat to the United States. His announcement caught the press off guard, but for policy wonks, it was just the latest in a long line of estimates from the U.S. intelligence community and officials that vary widely but rely on many assumptions that need further examination.
The U.S. official range of the TaepoDong-2 (TD-2) depends on the agency and the person providing the answer. For example, the latest publication of the Air Forces National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, released in April 2009, estimated the range of the TD-2 as 3,400+ miles (5,471 km) just short of the technical ICBM range (5,500 km) In comparison, the February 2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report (BMDR) issued by the Department of Defense noted that the range for the TD-2 could also be 10,000-15,000 km depending on the number of stages (10,000 km for two stages and probably 15,000 km for three stages) Why the wide differences in range estimates? Part of the answer is due to the secretive nature of the North Korean program. Part is due to the fact that there is only a limited amount of open source data available in general. (38North)
38north.org/2011/01/estimates-of-taepodong-2/
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