First Principles

In defending the President against his responsibility for his scandals, liberals undermine their governing philosophy.  We should support these efforts!

It’s been incredibly interesting to watch supporters of the President try to defend his actions – or lack thereof – in his various swirling scandals these days.  First there was a lot of silence – it took awhile for the damage control talking points to get worked out.  It takes special skill to defend the indefensible, after all.  Some are denying anything is wrong at all, that the IRS was just doing its job, that no one was lying about Benghazi, and that monitoring the AP reporters’ phone calls was vital to national security.  The RGJ’s Corey Farley absurdly argued today that the IRS targeting and harassment is no big deal, because Nixon, McCarthy, and Ted Kennedy (all folks modern Republicans hold in the highest regard, of course) did it, too.  All of these excuses have the same drawback, though – they require the excuse maker to be either stupid or a liar.  But now they seem to have settled on the ultimate defense.

The President didn’t do anything wrong, you see – he’s just incompetent!

[Read more →]

Here we go into the final stretch – let’s see which mascot will wear this year’s Badass Crown!

Sweet Sixteen

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (5) Oklahoma State Cowboys

There are times when not giving a crap any more can be what you need for a final badass push.  But not when it comes to being consumed by the flaming torch of avian-borne freedom [Read more →]

We’re underway, and the creme is starting to rise to the top of the chaffe, or something.  Let’s find out just how badass these mascots can be in the third round!

Midwest

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (9) Missouri Tigers

[Read more →]

Woo Hoo!  It’s Madness Time on the hard court once again, ladies and gentlemen!  It’s a time I’ve always looked forward to, even as a casual sports fan most of the year, for reasons that totally had nothing to do with finals being over.  And indeed, as our politics have gotten stupider, the need for escape becomes that much greater.  Here at First Principles, I’ve always tried to offer a perspective that you won’t get anywhere else, and that commitment to Uniquiosity™ isn’t limited just to politics.   Anyone can watch games, crunch statistics, know which players match up well against who.  You can look at seeds, win-loss records, RPI, distance from home, etc., and everyone does.  But no one – no one! – seems to account for what might be the most important stat of all:  The Relative Badassity of the Team Mascot, as defined by Myself.

Click on this picture for hilarious real mascot fights.

“Badassity” is a function of many things – “Who Would Win In a Fight” is a major determiner, but that alone isn’t always enough.  Mascots lose points for lack of originality (I’m talking to you, 8 Million Wildcat Teams).  History of the team nickname matters, as well as how it’s used today.  Logo design can be key – what do do when you have multiple Bulldogs?  Acknowledging Badassity doesn’t necessarily constitute endorsement – the Forces of Darkness tend to do well in this bracket.  And I try to look to the past when in doubt in close contests, following the rule of stare decisis when possible.  You can check out 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012 just for reference (2010 was purged from the record books after an NCAA rules violations investigation that I’m contractually prohibited from discussing).  And of course, the results are totally and completely guaranteed*!

*If you believe this, please join my pool.

So, defend your own school’s mascot if you can, and let’s get on with the Dance!

The First Four – Play-In Round

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (16) North Carolina A&T Aggies

This first matchup is an odd combination of overused mascots tossed together in a stew of medium grade Badassity, but with some real hidden potential in each.  Aggies, of course, refers to [Read more →]

This is probably the longest I’ve gone without blogging since I started doing it back in 2005.  There are a lot of reasons for that, but it’s time to come back, unlock the doors, blow off some dust, and open this shop back up.  I’ve been working on a series of posts about what Republicans and conservatives can do to change our fortunes – and the country – for the better, so stay tuned for that.  But as long time fans know, my favorite blogging of the year comes from my own, unique, and of course flawless take on the NCAA tournament.  With the Selection Sunday show now in the books, and the field set, I can no longer sit back and remain silent…

So the mascots are calling me back, along with a lot of readers who have asked me what’s going on and demanding more (thanks, you guys!).  In the meantime, enjoy some hoops predictions in the next few days!

Obama wins.  Republicans lose everywhere they could have lost in the Senate.  No wave.  No repudiation.  No change.  No mandate either way, and yet everyone will claim one.

Let me say this at the outset – I hope like hell that I’m wrong about what we’re in store for in the next four years.  I hope my friends who voted for and still support the president are wiser than me.  I hope that Obamacare bends the cost curve down and that it provides good health to Americans in an economically sustainable way.  I hope the economy comes screaming back to life, with the GDP growing at 5%+ every quarter for the duration.  I hope unemployment plummets.  I hope that Obama will make a serious effort to balance the budget.  I hope a Democrat wins in a landslide in 2016 because things are going so well.  I hope Iran will be prevented from getting a nuke because the Islamists are enchanted with him as a global healer.  I hope Obama stops considering me his “enemy.”

No tongue-in-cheek – I hope this will be so with all of my being, even as I know it won’t be so.

[Read more →]

One day away.  I’m feeling good about this election, and even better that it’s almost over.  But nothing is certain, and it ain’t over ’til it’s over – GO VOTE!!!!!

I think Romney wins tomorrow, and the “why” boils down to this:  Romney isn’t simultaneously demolishing Obama among independent voters and losing the race.  Those two things are just not compatible.  And while the polls have been all over the map, there has been one tremendous consistency – Romney wins big with independent voters.  Even in polls where it’s showing things tied, like in this CNN poll, Romney is winning Indies by 22 points.  22!  And the poll, like many others, assume Democrats will have an even greater electoral advantage than they had in 2008.  No thinking person thinks the electorate will look like this tomorrow.  Couple that with Obama failing to breach 50% pretty much anywhere, along with the tendency of late deciders to break hard for a challenger, and I feel like my cautious optimism is pretty well justified.

The other reason, beyond all others for me, is that Obama is acting like a losing candidate, and Romney is acting like a winning one.  Good polling is very, very expensive, which is one of the reasons there are so many bad ones out there.  Major campaigns are one of the few entities who can afford the better ones.  Obama wouldn’t be talking about getting “revenge” if he thought he was winning – indeed, that word suggests he’salready lost.

But still – VOTE!  A win is good.  A mandate is better.

~~~

But what about Nevada?

For my non-Nevadan readers, this is (l to r) Senator Dean Heller, some guy who blew in from the parking lot, Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Congressman Mark Amodei, Governor Brian Sandoval, and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki.

Today I had the honor and opportunity to lead the Pledge of Allegiance at a campaign stop by Condoleezza Rice here in Reno.  Scheduled to speak before her were my Governor, my Lt. Governor, my Senator, and my Congressman, and we were all in a back room waiting for the former Secretary of State to come.  Four of the most powerful men in Nevada were relaxed, happy, and having fun with each other.  They were warm, respectful, and gracious to harried staffers, volunteers, and almost-3 year-olds who could have slept more last night.

[Read more →]

Final Thoughts:  I thought this went well, and Romney did what he needed to do.  Some of the activists are wondering why Romney didn’t hit Benghazi harder, but it’s clear that was a calculated decision.  (I probably would have hit Libya harder, but I wonder if they have some focus group data that suggested that wasn’t resonating.)  Again, the audience here are the late undecideds who aren’t happy with Obama (or they wouldn’t be undecided), but want to make sure Romney isn’t some crazy, loose canon warmonger.  He did that, and did it very well.  He looked reasonable, strong without being overly brash, well informed, and competent.  Obama did nothing to reverse the momentum here, and said a few things that I think will really hurt him.  (He does know our largest Navy base is in swing state Virginia, right?)

As a successful business guy, Romney is necessarily very good at FIRST asking the question, “What does it mean to win?”  Pundits and activists want to count blows and “points” and other such nonsense.  Undecided voters want a gut feel that the guy they’re voting for is going to take care of business so they can quit paying attention to politics for awhile.

Obama was playing for the pundits (and even they are conceding that Romney “passed the Commander-in-Chief Test”), Romney for the voters.  If the polls after the last debates are any indication – and I think they will be – the momentum remains with Romney.

My cautious optimism is growing…

Read the full recap here!  [Read more →]

Bottom Line:  I thought Romney bested the President in the first half hour, but the President finished pretty strong.  Since it was boring in the middle, I think that benefits Romney.

Crowley was much better than I thought, but not as good as she could have been.  And she was incredibly misleading about Obama calling the Benghazi incident a terrorist attack, as was Obama, of course.  Again – moderators can’t be trusted to be “fact checkers” any more than the candidates.  But still, Romney missed a huge opportunity on that, and missed an opportunity to really put the President on the spot.  I’m glad there is a final debate focusing on foreign policy.  And I’m equally glad that exchange will now dominate the reaction press until the next debate.

There were three exchanges when Romney was essentially trying to cross examine the President, and the President squirmed.  He needs to do more of that.

If folks were still undecided going in to this debate, I doubt this will change their minds – they will wait until the third.  I think Obama stopped some bleeding, but gained no new ground.  My Facebook feed tells me it was a draw – lots of enthusiasm from my friends on both sides.  And I have to think the President’s sunny picture of the economy will sit in jarring contrast to what people are seeing in their lives.

As always, the Ultimate Poll will tell!

Click here to read the full live blog…  [Read more →]

The Bottom Line:  Before this debate, I thought Biden was a likeable buffoon.  Now I think he’s a very unlikeable buffoon.

Not a clear domination like the last debate.  Indeed – it left me damned frustrated for the lack of substance.  This is what happens when you have a too-present moderator who won’t do her one actual job, which is to be the umbrella for both sides when it’s their turn to speak.  Horrible.  Just horrible. And by the way, hate, hate, hate this sitting.  I agree with Peggy Noonan – stand up at podiums, people.

Ryan was unflappable, but I actually wish he would have flapped a bit more in response to Biden’s constant interrupting and grinning.  How great would it have been if he would have said, “Mr. Vice President, I don’t find 4 dead Americans funny – why are you laughing?”  And, “Mr. Vice President, I understand you don’t want the American people to hear the truth behind these numbers, but they deserve to hear them, and they can’t when you keep speaking over me and jumping in.  Be still for just 2 minutes!”  Biden exemplifies the incompetence of our political class.

The talking heads are aghast right now about the interruptions and rudeness.  I wonder what effect that imagery will have, especially coupled with the calm demeanor of Ryan.  For anyone with a well-tuned BS detector, interrupting like that spikes the BS Meter off the charts.  I’ve been losing faith, however, in the calibration of the American electorate’s BS detectors…

There is plenty here for both sides to claim victory on, but I don’t know.  I think both sides credibly got their messages out, and the question is how they will resonate with the undecideds, who are a mercurial bunch.  As always, when I live blog, I hear more than I see, and I thought Ryan had more memorable quips and takeaways, even a few with numbers (run the govt for 98 days and all that).

I didn’t watch it on CNN, but I understand from people who did that the undecided voter reaction was incredibly positive for Ryan, particularly with women.  If that’s true, the takeaway from this will be whether Biden energizing his base at the expense of turning off the undecideds came at too high a price for Obama.  Update on this:  The CNN snap poll:

Winner: Ryan 48%, Biden 44%
More likeable: Ryan 53%, Biden 43%
More in touch with problems of people like you: Ryan 51%, Biden 44%

CNBC Snap Poll:

Paul Ryan: 56%, Joe Biden: 36%, Neither: 8%

As I understand it, these snap polls are pre-selected, self-described undecided voters.  If that’s indeed the case, then this was a BIG win, since “winning” in this case is defined as what moves the most voters to our side.  If these numbers are accurate, the momentum Romney built last week was solidified, and that’s a good thing.

Click here for the whole live blog!  [Read more →]