Election Day reminder: Early exit polls are meaningless
posted at 12:41 pm on November 4, 2014 by Ed Morrissey
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Thanks to a decade-plus effort to extend opportunities to vote, we now have plenty of early voting data on which to chew. We don’t have results from early voting, as the ballots have not yet been tabulated at all, but in several states we do know the breakdown in party affiliation for the ballots that were requested, and were returned. Some of that data suggests certain outcomes, and some less so, but the early vote data generally works best when compared to earlier cycles for indications of turnout rather than ideas of who’s leading in the races.
Exit polling is even more problematic, and we’re likely to get a lot of confusion from them as news organizations comment on early releases. This came to a head in 2004 when early reports from exit polling suggested that John Kerry had moved ahead of George W. Bush on Election Day, only to have Bush win the popular vote and the Electoral College. That caused allegations of voter fraud — maybe the last time Democrats admitted to the possibility — and a lame attempt to block Ohio from filing its Electoral College returns.
That entire exercise ignored the fact that exit polling doesn’t do a good job of predicting outcomes; it exists to explain them. Exit polling data gets collected all day long to find the eventual turnout model for elections, especially in demographics such as age, gender, ethnicity, affiliation, etc. That data only becomes valid when it is fully compiled. Partial data sets for exit polling do not provide predictive outcomes because the turnout models can change significantly during the day, perhaps especially because of early voting. That is exactly what happened in 2004, when media outlets used non-predictive data in predictive ways, and while the data sets were still being compiled.
That isn’t to say that completed exit polls are meaningless. The networks will use the data in part to plug into their election models in order to call races — but that takes place while the results of actual voting are being published, after the polls have closed. We’re not likely to see much of that data, though, except perhaps in a few states where Senate and gubernatorial races are particularly close. Even then, though, the problem of early voting then begins to have an impact. Exit polling takes place by having data collectors stand outside of the precincts and conducting in-person surveys. That will give us a look at the results of Election Day voting, but in some states, half or more of the total vote will have been conducted well before Election Day, and a substantial chunk of that by mail. That may mean that even the complete data sets won’t actually be all that reliable, unless and until follow-up surveys get conducted among early voters after the election.
In the end, though, the completed exit polling only gives us a short-lived sneak peek at potential results. Within a couple of hours in most states, we’ll get the actual results anyway. The best course is to be patient, but in any case, don’t put any value in exit polling until those data sets are complete.
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For the losers
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2014 at 12:45 PM
Has anyone ever done an analysis of voting time-of-day versus political affiliation? Now that might be some useful information.
Bat Chain Puller on November 4, 2014 at 12:46 PM
If the Rs win the senate my schadenfreude at the leftist thugs and their destructive agenda will be unadulterated, for one night.
If the Rs don’t win the senate I’ll laugh at Karl Rove and the DIABLOs with unadulterated schadenfreude.
Thus, it s/b a grand night either way.
Then there will be tomorrow, America.
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2014 at 12:47 PM
Ed, how about a thread just for commenters that have voted today regarding impressions of turnout, etc?
I know it’s meaningless anecdotal information, but interesting none the less.
I’m not the only one that is dying to get results and hoping for the best, this would be some prime filler. Just a thought
JusDreamin on November 4, 2014 at 12:47 PM
I have no doubt our media will attempt to call the
Governor’s race here in PA as early as possible today..
even before many of us who WORK go to vote after we get home…
It’s called Voter Suppression….something the media relishes doing.
ToddPA on November 4, 2014 at 12:47 PM
Well, I’m going to go out on a limb here and congratulate Abbott on his victory in Texas.
Happy Nomad on November 4, 2014 at 12:48 PM
Only when they lose.
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2014 at 12:48 PM
At 5 pm ET, we will post open threads on races that each of us are monitoring. Those will be the best forums for those observations.
Ed Morrissey on November 4, 2014 at 12:49 PM
LOL, the brave Nomad.
JusDreamin on November 4, 2014 at 12:49 PM
Personally, I think exit polls are stupid altogether. There are people who vote closer towards the last minute — due to obligations such as work or schooling — and can be persuaded not to bother if the exit polls are skewed a certain way. In close races, it can make a difference.
Well said.
Aizen on November 4, 2014 at 12:50 PM
Yes, one more target for schadenfreude – the media, most of it. Hopefully most of you will suffocate in obama’s azz. It ain’t Beluga caviar, you utter irresponsible and derelict fools. YOU no longer deserve to work/live free. So many died for your 1st Amendment right, but you NO longer deserve it.
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2014 at 12:50 PM
Sounds good, thanks Ed.
JusDreamin on November 4, 2014 at 12:50 PM
By their very nature liberals brag about their votes and conservatives don’t.
John the Libertarian on November 4, 2014 at 12:50 PM
Ed,
I envy not your determined counsel of patience in the age of instant gratification.
Good luck sir.
Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 4, 2014 at 12:51 PM
I like then cut of your jib. ;)
ShadowsPawn on November 4, 2014 at 12:52 PM
Election Day reminder: Ed Morrissey poll analyses are meaningless.
themuppet on November 4, 2014 at 12:52 PM
I’m not sure how anyone would consider exit polls, media reports, or party stump speeches as died in the wool facts. This day and age I even wonder if my dog is telling me the truth about why he wants to go in the yard.
Limerick on November 4, 2014 at 12:53 PM
Welcome aboard and thank you. In time you’ll feel the wrath too :)
Just kidding. I’m a huggable teddy bear.
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2014 at 12:54 PM
Hah, I’ve actually been here for quite a while, fought a few epic battles with Gumbeyandpokeme back in the day.
ShadowsPawn on November 4, 2014 at 12:57 PM
Newly registered and this is my first comment ever on this site:
I’m not coming back to this site until all the freaking Charlie Crist ads are gone! I don’t need to see his face at all, let alone 5 times on this page. See ya tomorrow!
HongKongPhooey on November 4, 2014 at 1:00 PM
Coordinated effort.
I like it. Good show, old man.
Until then, I’m for Spam, a healthy and relaxing cigarette, bunk time behind the barricade, and soft, whimsical anecdotes of my hard-headed woman and her nevertheless fantastic gams.
Axe on November 4, 2014 at 1:01 PM
Anecdotal, but I live in a rural, largely Republican part of Maryland Usually when I go to vote there are three of four people in line Today the lines at the polling place were out the door. I waited in line for an hour. When I left the line was even longer. No senate impact from Maryland, but I think my experience may be indicative of Republican enthsiasm.
Trafalgar on November 4, 2014 at 1:02 PM
Dirty Harry Reid (the little weasel) exits his post of Sen Majority Ldr
THAT is the exit we want to see
Senator Philip Bluster on November 4, 2014 at 1:03 PM
One of the most egregious examples of faulty interpretation of exit polling was Florida in 2000. Counties east of the Apalachicola river in the northern part of the state are on Central time while the rest of the state is on Eastern.
The media called the state for Gore before the polls have even closed in relatively populous and conservative areas such as Pensacola, Destin, Ft. Walton and Panama City.
The media had to pull back their call and when the data from those Central time counties came in, it was too close and the Hanging Chad crisis was on.
Conservative Mischief on November 4, 2014 at 1:04 PM
Not going to count on anything until I see actual vote totals.
Don’t want to chance the let down I had in 2012.
Barred on November 4, 2014 at 1:04 PM
Biden Blows Greg Orman’s Cover: He ‘Will Be With Us’
Shocker. Not.
Resist We Much on November 4, 2014 at 1:05 PM