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Playing for Keeps: Jason Heyward

November 9, 2014 | 2015 Fantasy Baseball, fantasy baseball keepers | 42 Comments

by: Mike

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Atlanta outfielder Jason Heyward is getting some love for his defense this awards season, winning his second Gold Glove award in three years. But his 2014 campaign was a tad disappointing for the more offensively-minded fantasy baseballer. Keeper league owners hoped Heyward would bounce back to his 2012 breakout form (27 homers and 21 steals) after an injury-riddled 2013 season. Instead they were dealt a bad hand in the power department. While Heyward’s 21 steals provided similar value, 11 homers was a far cry from the power numbers he put up as a 22-year-old. The Braves’ right fielder ended up as the 37th ranked outfielder according to the 2014 Razzball player rater (150th overall). One of the glaring weaknesses this season was his inability to hit lefties. Heyward hit just .169 with two homers against southpaws. That was good for a measly 39 wRC+. Compare that to his 2012 season in which he hit .224 with seven dingers against lefties. Nothing incredible, but it was a more palatable 73 wRC+. All this may lead some impatient fantasy owners to give up on Heyward too early – tempting them to throw him back into the draft in some shallower keeper formats. I think that would be a mistake.

For starters, Heyward is still just 25 years old – an age at which most players are just starting to realize their full power potential. What he did at 22 was remarkable and made him a hot commodity in fantasy. Then 2013 happened. That 2013 season couldn’t have been worse for Heyward from a health perspective. Shoulder soreness, hamstring issues, an appendectomy, and a broken jaw all led to him accumulating only 440 plate appearances. But 25-homer power is still lurking in that bat, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it emerge in the next year or two. You have to wonder if any of the 2013 problems carried over into last year, considering he dealt with all of that at an age when most guys are getting another year of fine tuning at the minor league level. Heyward’s average fly ball distance went from 290 and 287 feet in 2012-13 to just 267 feet in 2014. His HR/FB% dipped all the way to 6.5% – almost a 10% drop from his 2012 breakout and 7% less than in 2013. At 25, Heyward’s a little young to be losing distance. Even small rebounds there could lead to better home run totals and make this past year’s 6.5% look like an outlier.

Heyward improved in several areas as well. His strikeout percentage declined for the third year in a row while his contact percentage increased another tick. His average and on-base percentage did bounce back, and we already mentioned the steals. Heyward was able to match his steals total from two years ago and that provided a nice boost to his fantasy value. At 25, Heyward isn’t going to fall of a cliff in that department either. I think expecting 15-20 stolen bases again in 2015 is reasonable. If a power rebound occurs, we’re looking at a 20/15 or possibly even 20/20 player. Steamer seems confident in a bounce back – projecting him for a return to the .170/.180 mark in isolated power with 21 homers in 645 plate appearances. Now another year removed from that 2013 season and still just entering his prime years, Heyward is a player I’m still targeting in keeper and dynasty formats, especially if I can land him at a discount from a frustrated owner.

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42 Responses (Jump straight to the comment form)

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    Tigres says:
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    Mike, do you see the Braves getting a leadoff hitter and moving Heyward back to middle of lthe lineup?

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      Mike says:
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      At some point yes. Second base and centerfield need to be addressed, and a leadoff type could come from one of those positions. A player like Jose Peraza might be able to help them in that department from within their own organization. There is also a better-than-zero chance Heyward gets traded in 2015 if the Braves feel they won’t be able to sign him (both he and Justin Upton will be FA in 2016).

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    jay says:
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    So…I lost Taveras as a keeper for 2015. Now I need a backup.

    Would you keep Betances in hopes he becomes the next closer?
    Would you keep Harrison and all his versatility?

    12 team keeper league
    I will already be keeping Kimbrel and Chapman if that helps. We are adding holds that will be worth .5 pts so even if he doesn’t close he could be valuable. I am solid at 3b but do not have a keeper SS and Harrison could fill in there. I don’t see Harrison being quite as good next year but I would take .280 10-12hrs and 15sb as a shinier Martin Prado type at short.
    Any thoughts would help. Thanks.

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      jay says:
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      Also…we do not have a mi/ci spot in our lineup. Just 3 util slots

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      Mike says:
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      I’d keep Harrison and see what Betances brings back in a trade this offseason. You might be able to upgrade the bat and you seem pretty set with two quality relievers already.

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    gareth says:
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    Heyward is frustrating.

    He’s on of those Angel/Devil guys you come across when doing a fantasy draft.

    The Devil on your one shoulder is saying stuff like “too inconsistent!” “Injury prone” and “miscast as a leadoff hitter.”
    The Angel on your shoulder is saying “so much potential! ” “He’s gonna break out this year” and “his power will return! ”

    Other angel/devil players that teased potential at various points and will provoke the debate in 2015 drafts are Hosmer, Lawrie, Middlebrooks, Brown, Gyorko, Kipnis, Segura to name but a few.

    So are you going to listen to the Devil – “this guy sucks!” Or the Angel “this guys about to live up to his potential” in regards to these players in 2015?

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      Mike says:
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      I hear ya. Long term I’d still be in on a lot of those guys (maybe not so much Brown). Looking at just 2015 I like Segura and Kipnis the best of that group.