Colts Jags Breakdown

Written by Nate Dunlevy | 31 December 2011

Andrew Aziz of Everythng Colts breaks down tomorrow's game

What the Colts Need to Do to Win

On offense, the Colts need to go pass heavy. Dan Orlovsky is gaining more confidence as the weeks go on. He had a great 2nd half last game, and let's hope that carries over to this game. To beat this Jacksonville pass defense, you going to have to be aggressive. You can't be too conservative, which means that don't go for the 5 yard pass each time. The Colts should take a lot of shots down the field as Rashean Mathis is out for the year, and Dwight Lowery is probably not going to play. The Colts have great deep threats in Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne and even Jacob Tamme can be useful down the field. They have to take shots, but they have to choose them wisely. They can't just constantly take shots down the field. They have to run the ball and throw some short passes; this will set up the long ball perfectly as they will play short, not deep. This need to take at least 5 shots down the field, or throw 5 25+ yard passes. Now, when running the ball, they should tend to run it out of shotgun or have a fullback in front of the running back. They let Donald Brown or Joe Addai run against these linebackers without full back help, the Jaguars have 3 very good linebackers in Smith, Posluszny and Session (former Colt). They need a lead blocker. In a shotgun situation, the draw itself should make the linebackers scatter and leave only 1 linebacker in the box. Don't make the playcalling obvious. Also, short passes on first down should be good, so it makes 2nd and 3rd down easier to convert, and if you get pretty good yardage, you can afford a deep shot, and like I said, the Colts need to take deep shots vs the Jags.

On defense, they need to shut down MJD. If they can stop MJD, I'd be surprised if the Jags can put up more than 10 points. This means that Pat Angerer, Ernie Sims and Kavell Conner need to be active. If MJD runs to the outside they need to use their quickness to get to him. If it helps, putting Antoine Bethea in the box isn't a bad idea. That would be a big bonus to stopping the run. The defensive line must be active also when stopping the run, and that means that Fili Moala must make stops. Don't expect anything from Freeney and Mathis as they are pure pass rushers, not run stoppers. Moala and Johnson must be active and get an initial hit on MJD; that should slow him down enough so that Angerer and the LBs can finish the tackle. They just need to stop him. Now in the passing game, Eugene Monroe has a bad ankle which means that Dwight Freeney has a good chance at getting to Gabbert, and he must do that. Once Blaine Gabbert sees pressure he gets nervous and either runs away, throws the ball away, or if he throws the ball into coverage, sometimes creating turnovers. They need to pressure him constantly, so that the passing game never develops and gets stronger as the game goes on. Also, double teaming Marcedes Lewis would be good, especially in the redzone as he's a great target for Gabbert. They should also blitz a lot as it's worked in the past couple of weeks and Gabbert hates pressure.

What the Jaguars Need to Do to Win

On offense, MJD needs to have a big game. The Colts are probably preparing for a run heavy offense, so having a balanced gameplan should be good. They should make Gabbert throw the ball on quick passes to Mike Thomas. He's a good possession receiver, so having him do slants, outs and ins should be good. Put the ball in his hands. He needs to be smart with the ball, but he should take a couple of shots down the field if he wants. That's Jason Hill's specialty. If he throws picks, then the Colts will win the game. When MJD is running, he must have Greg Jones in front of him as he's a premier fullback and a great lead blocker. WIth tackling machines in Angerer, Conner and Bethea, having a lead blocker is ideal.

On defense, they have to put pressure on Dan Orlovsky. That means more blitzes, especially on the left side where Anthony Castonzo plays, and run around him. Castonzo has terrible footwork which means that they must rush around him, not run into him and bullrush him as he will just stop you. He's as strong as a bull, but his footwork is terrible. Get Clint Session to rush blitz on the left side. They have to pressure him or he'll just pick apart this regressing pass defense. Stopping Donald Brown/Joseph Addai is a must too, so that they rely on Orlovsky. Although Orlovsky can win games by himself, it makes it a much more winnable game if they have to rely on just him. Creating turnovers is a must.

Breakout Performers / Key Matchup

For the Colts, it's Dan Orlovsky. He must have a mistake free football game or the Jags will probably win. He needs to pick his shots and make smart decisions. No bad throws.

For the Jaguars, it's MJD. A bad game from him and the offense will never get going and the Colts will easily win.

The key matchup is the Colts LBs vs MJD. The winner of the matchup will probably win the match.

What I Think Will Happen

I think that the Colts will come out and start with the ball. They will drive down the field but only get 3 points. The first quarter will be overshadowed by great defense.... or just terrible offenses. The score at the end of the first will be 3-0 Colts. The Colts will get the ball in the 2nd quarter and score a touchdown. It will be a 14 yard pass to Pierre Garcon. The halftime score will be 10-0 for the Colts. In the 3rd quarter, The Jags will get the ball and they will get stopped. After a couple of bad drives, the Colts will take the ball and score off a 2 yard Joe Addai touchdown. The score will be 17-3 going into the 4th quarter. The Jags will quickly score a touchdown and make the score 17-10 with 11 minutes left. The Colts will go 3 and out and the Jags will get the ball with 9:30 left. They will drive down the field and score a touchdown off a MJD touchdown. The score will be 17-17 with 4 minutes left. The Colts will have another bad drive and the Jags will have the ball with 2 minutes left. Blaine Gabbert will have a big pass to Marcedes Lewis and that will get them down to the 45 yard line (of the Colts) with 37 seconds left. Maurice Jones Drew will have a big run which will get them to the 32 yard line with 20 seconds left. They will get to the 30 yard line and Scobee will kick a 47 yard game winner. The Colts will get the first overall pick after Scobee kills the Colts again.

Prediction

Jaguars 20 vs Colts 17

Last Time they Played

2011 NFL Season -- Week 10

Jaguars 17 vs Colts 3