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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Defenders effect on Save %   1 day, 12 hours ago · View

    Lidstrom was on the ice for 1851 zone start adjusted 5v5 shots against over the past 4 seasons. Based on his on-ice save percentage improvement he and the players he was on the ice for saved 34.6 goals against or 8.65 per year. I wouldn’t consider that insignificant. Also remember that this is relative to [...]

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Defenders effect on Save %   1 day, 15 hours ago · View

    Chance > is the chance that the player could post his on-ice save (or better) percentage by luck alone. I calculate this by using the save percentage of the goalies he is playing in front of and the number of goals and shots he gives up and plugging it into a standard binomial distribution. So, [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Defenders effect on Save %   1 day, 16 hours ago · View

    It has been shown on numerous occasions that players can influence their own teams on-ice shooting percentage be that through their talents or their style of play.  An example is the PDO vs Luck article I posted the other day.  In that article there is a table that clearly shows that shooting percentage varies across players and that [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Defenders effect on Save %   1 day, 16 hours ago · View

    It has been shown on numerous occasions that players can influence their own teams on-ice shooting percentage be that through their talents or their style of play.  An example is the PDO vs Luck article I posted the other day.  In that article there is a table that clearly shows that shooting percentage varies across players and

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Thoughts on PDO and Luck   4 days, 11 hours ago · View

    I understand where you are coming from David. It is always questionable drawing conclusions about individual players from team stats, which is what makes hockey so much more difficult to analyze statistically than baseball. This is why I like to look at whether a particular player makes his teammates better (and opponents worse) when they [...]

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Thoughts on PDO and Luck   4 days, 12 hours ago · View

    Actually, I think this is the first time I have brought up the Red Wings in about 2 years. “Travis Moen or Scott Gomez would likely have a closer to average team shooting percentage when they are playing on the ice if they were to play a more offensive role.” ‘Average’ is still a long [...]

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Thoughts on PDO and Luck   4 days, 17 hours ago · View

    Again, Detroit coaches stress puck control. Should we credit Detroit players for playing on a team that stresses puck control? I understand perfectly what you are saying. I just think it is complete and utter nonsense. Would Travis Moen’s (or even Scott Gomez’s) on-ice shooting percentage jump from bottom of the league to top of [...]

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Thoughts on PDO and Luck   5 days, 3 hours ago · View

    Your problem is that you are trying to explain why something happens as a reason to ignore that it does happen. By that I mean you are suggesting that we should ignore that players have elevated on-ice shooting percentages because they only got elevated on-ice shooting percentages because they tried to get elevated on-ice shooting [...]

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Thoughts on PDO and Luck   5 days, 13 hours ago · View

    I have had a number of discussions with people who insist that variation in shooting percentage is largely due to randomness and luck. Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins vehemently denied the ability of 10 chosen NHLers to be able to sustain elevated on-ice shooting percentages and insisted they would regress to the mean. The [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Thoughts on PDO and Luck   5 days, 16 hours ago · View

    One of my beefs in the analysis and evaluation of hockey players is the notion that PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage) can be used as a proxy for luck.  A perfect example of how PDO is used as a proxy for luck is this article by Neil Greenberg about the Washington Capitals .

    For example, [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Thoughts on PDO and Luck   5 days, 16 hours ago · View

    One of my beefs in the analysis and evaluation of hockey players is the notion that PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage) can be used as a proxy for luck.  A perfect example of how PDO is used as a proxy for luck is this article by Neil Greenberg about the Washington Capitals.

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Zone Start Effects on Stats   1 week, 2 days ago · View

    Over the past week or so I have talked about a simple and straight forward method for taking into account variations in zone starts .  The method is to simply ignore the 10 seconds following an offensive or defensive face off.  By adjusting for zone starts in this manner we can see a fairly significant impact on [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Zone Start Effects on Stats   1 week, 2 days ago · View

    Over the past week or so I have talked about a simple and straight forward method for taking into account variations in zone starts.  The method is to simply ignore the 10 seconds following an offensive or defensive face off.  By adjusting for zone starts in this manner we can see a fairly significant impact

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Stats.hockeyanalysis.com updated   1 week, 3 days ago · View

    Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12. I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff .  I have included [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Stats.hockeyanalysis.com updated   1 week, 3 days ago · View

    Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12. I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff.  I

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri   1 week, 5 days ago · View

    Yes, you came up with a wonderful reason why Gomez’s line takes more shots. Now please explain why his line can’t score on those shots.

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri   1 week, 6 days ago · View

    I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets  and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided that [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri   1 week, 6 days ago · View

    I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided

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    davidjohnson commented on the blog post Evaluating the Leafs Defensemen   2 weeks ago · View

    Clearly Chicago, a true Cup contender, thinks it was a good signing and thinks he was worth trading for. Your argument that because Calgary traded him means he must be a bad signing is just silly. The Flames are realizing they can’t make a serious run this season and as a result too the opportunity [...]

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    davidjohnson wrote a new blog post: Evaluating the Leafs Defensemen   2 weeks, 1 day ago · View

    With the re-signing of John-Michael Liles the Leafs now have an abundance of defensemen signed under control for a number of years, many with big dollar contracts too.  We all have our varying opinions on the relative values of each of these defensemen but I thought it would be an appropriate time to take a [...]

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