The result of the Russian presidential election brought two months of euphoria to a shuddering halt. The expectation that Putin would return with a weaker mandate was crushed by his unexpectedly high 63% of support. And even allowing for massive fraud – a lot of it well documented – Putin emerged from this election stronger than many predicted. Most of even his staunchest critics concede that he probably obtained more than 50% of the vote even without the rigging. But while Putin is jubilant, the Russian opposition is more demoralised and disorientated than at any time since December. Between euphoria and depression, it is important to understand where Russia – its government and society – stands after this election. The weakness of the strong  Putin is both weaker and stronger. ...

Ten years ago, European immigration policy was run almost exclusively by interior ministers - shy nocturnal creatures who viewed mobility as something deeply threatening. If immigrants weren’t bogus asylum-seekers, they were almost certainly welfare-shoppers or, at the very least, irregular. In the last few years, however, the EU’s economic, foreign and development ministries have encouraged their colleagues to think again: the immigrant masses may be huddled, it seems, but many of them are distinctly white-collared too. This realisation that the skilled and wealthy also migrate has allowed the EU to begin recalibrating its relations with third countries, particularly in eastern Europe – Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine - and now in North Africa too – Tunisia and Morocco. Travel an...

So many laurels have been laid at Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s door that he risks having an ‘Obama’ done to him – being awarded the EU’s equivalent of the Nobel Peace Prize simply for existing. Well, say some, the effects of mere existence cannot be over-estimated when it comes to the Italian (technocrat) leader. According to one account of last week’s Spring European Summit where EU leaders dealt with economy policy the quality of discussion was “quite good”. (Considering that discussion is something that never previously featured in the March council, which was rather about EU leaders reading worthy pre-prepared statements of no-intent at each other – this is high praise indeed). The debate was partly due to the fact that it was just a plain old summit with no crisis ...

Germany has long been a champion of financial transparency in Europe, having pushed hard for the EU Savings Tax Directive, a co-operative arrangement since 2005 where participating jurisdictions routinely exchange information about the income and holdings of each other’s citizens, so that they may be taxed properly. Germany has also strongly supported current moves to strengthen the directive, which is currently full of loopholes. The transparency project has faced major political difficulties. A group of tax haven countries, led by Switzerland and supported inside the EU by the tax havens of Austria and Luxembourg, have been involved in a political chess game, to sabotage the progress of the powerful Amendments to the EU Savings Tax Directive (EUSTD) through the European legislative pr...

Slovakia is heading towards an early parliamentary election – to be held on 10 March - after its centre-right ruling coalition failed to reach a consensus on the eurozone bail-out funds. Shortly after the government’s fall last October, it seemed that the EU affairs would finally dominate the pre-election campaign in the country of five million. What had never happened even before the vote of Slovak MEPs was about to come true: Slovaks would passionately discuss the pros and cons of the future EU’s fiscal treaty; they would see billboards with EU flags and quote economists on what is crucial for euro’s recovery. As realists suspect, none of this has been the case. This time, however, not only for all the obvious reasons – the fiscal treaty is dull and hard to explain, the Slovak flag...

The Danish Presidency launched a 12-person culture ‘taskforce’ in Copenhagen this week. Among an impressive bunch of luminaries are former European Commissioner Margot Wallstrom, and Neil MacGregor, Director of the British Museum. The culture big-wigs have been given a pretty stiff challenge. Danish Culture Minister Uffe Elbaek says that he wants the Culture Team to seek examples of art stimulating “new ideas in terms of identity, community and economic growth”, and to draft a manifesto on the role of the cultural sector in the economic crisis that will be presented in June at the end of the Danish EU Presidency. In an op-ed in the Guardian by Elbaek and Culture Commissioner Androulla Vasilliou said “Art is not only a pleasurable icing on the cake; it is also a way of thinking and a ...

All authoritarian regimes are based on a mix of coercion and inspiration, fear and promise, trickstery and grand narrative. But to be successful, authoritarian leaders need to stand for something. The more convincing their ideational offer, the less coercion they have to use and the cheaper and more lasting the system is likely to be. Thus, the autocrats of this world routinely use various ideologies – from Islamism to communism and from monarchism to anti-colonialism - as their ideological foundations. But the moment they exhaust their ideational drive, their countdown starts. This is the situation Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, finds himself in. What Putin stood for? Over the years Putin became associated with a set of ideas he stood for and campaigned on. These ideas were con...

As a Belarusian joke goes: There are tours to Belarus organised for the Russians to see what they will have after the presidential elections on 4 March. Putin will be elected, but of course situation in Russia is and will be different. Even the demonstrations show how different we are. In Russia rallies are tolerated. And there are so many creative and witty posters. People mock at the regime and its corrupt nature: "Don’t shake the boat, our rat is sick", "Veggies are good for the regime", "Putin cheats at maths", "Passive intellectuals are here today as well", "They killed elections! You, bastards!" etc, etc. And I thought: why have I never written anything funny when joining a rally? It’s been 17 years, it’s bitter not witty. There’s nothing funny about any new scanda...

How can EU leaders be persuaded to engage in proper political discussion? The problem is particularly acute for the traditional March European Council, tasked with dealing with economic policy. Work leading to this summit starts with the publication by the European Commission of the key policy recommendations (Annual Growth Survey) for the member states. These then make their way through different ministerials – employment, financial, competition - all of which have their say. The EU leaders at the March summit “endorse”  certain broad stroke  “priorities”  such as promoting “growth" or tackling “unemployment”. They reader thinks 'déjà vu' and 'blindingly obvious' in equal measure. The loose conclusions are not due to the issues themselves. They are important. The problem is getti...

One year after the revolutions in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt it is clear that the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to become the driving force in Middle Eastern politics. Many people in the West are convinced this is the worst possible outcome of the Arab spring – which some commentators have already nicknamed the “Arab winter”. Living in Cairo I follow the Tunisian and Egyptian elections during the day. At night I watch debates and results from the GOP primaries. And frankly, I wonder: is the rhetoric of the MB all that different from the one I can witness in the primaries? On their website the Muslim Brotherhood call themselves “a group established to promote development, progress and advancement based on Islamic references”. They remain very much unclear on what these Islamic references ex...