CASCaDE: Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem
CASCaDE II updates
(2010-present)
- September 21, 2011: A synthesis paper presenting results from CASCaDE I titled "Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change" is out! Link to online publication.
- July 22, 2011: Our hydrodynamic modeling postdoc position is now closed to further applications. Thanks to all who applied.
- May 26, 2011: Our hydrodynamic modeling postdoc position is
currently being advertised through USAJOBS,
and we will have a print ad running in EOS throughout June. Click HERE for more information.
- March 28, 2011: CASCaDE II has
officially been approved for full funding through the Delta Science Program by the Delta
Stewardship Council! CASCaDE II also receives funding from the USGS Priority Ecosystem Science San Francisco Bay Project.
- December 15, 2010: Mick van
der Wegen presentation: Progress
Report on new Delft Bay-Delta hydrodynamic model for use in CASCaDE II.
Zip file download HERE (contains PowerPoint file and associated
model animations)
Executive Summary of CASCaDE II Proposal
(full proposal HERE)
This proposal builds upon an
existing model-based effort to develop
a holistic view of the Bay-Delta-River-Watershed system. CASCaDE I
developed a set of linked models to assess Delta ecosystem response to
climate change. In CASCaDE II, we propose to refine and extend
those modeling capabilities to assess Delta ecosystem response to
changes in climate and physical configuration. With a new
state-of-the-art hydrodynamic and sediment model at its core, CASCaDE
II will link models of climate, hydrology, hydrodynamics, sediment,
geomorphology, phytoplankton, bivalves, contaminants, marsh accretion,
and fish.
Our goals are to apply these linked
models to 1) better understand
Delta ecosystem function, 2) assess possible futures of the Delta under
scenarios of climate and structural change, and 3) provide
science-based information to support the DSC in its co-equal goals of
water supply and ecosystem protection. The tools developed will provide
an objective basis for anticipating and diagnosing Delta ecosystem
responses to planned and unplanned changes. Experiments using the
linked models are designed to address questions such as: How will
climate change, together with new conveyance structures or increased
flooded island habitat, alter water flow and drinking water quality?
With projected changes in residence time, turbidity, temperature, and
salinity, how will primary productivity, invasive bivalves, marsh
processes, contaminant dynamics, and fish populations respond?
CASCaDE I description and
products (2006-2010)
(see also "Data by Task" to the left)
This is the CASCaDE Project web site. This project was funded by the CALFED Science Program.
The CASCaDE project comprises an approach for determining how multiple drivers of environmental change would interact to change ecosystems targeted for restoration by CALFED. CASCaDE is aimed not at predicting the future, but at building an understanding of how the ecosystem might respond to a few plausible scenarios of change.
Design of this study is built from hypotheses that: (1) California's hydrology will change during the 21st century in response to global warming; (2) ecosystem structure and function will respond to changes in California's water supply, population, land use, sea level, constructed habitats and storage-conveyance facilities, and potential levee failures; (3) sufficient information is available to project plausible scenarios of change in each of these forcings; (2) climatic, hydrologic, hydrodynamic, water-quality, geomorphic and ecosystem processes are linked in the Bay-Delta-River-Watershed system, and thus models to project future conditions there must also be linked; and (5) strategic planning by CBDA will benefit from mechanistic, ecosystem-scale projections of future forcings and responses, posed as plausible scenarios of system change.
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