Smart Defense and the Future of NATO

Public Program with Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, Harvard Kennedy School; former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; and former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO

Private Dinner with Remarks by General Stéphane Abrial, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Allied Command Transformation (ACT), NATO

Introduction:

• Dr. Rachel Bronson, Vice President, Studies, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Welcome

• Marshall M. Bouton, President, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Economic Realities: The Scope and Depth of Austerity

Economic turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic is leading to a serious reconsideration of spending priorities, including defense spending. How states respond today will have a profound impact on tomorrow's capabilities. How are global economic conditions impacting national security decision-making processes and domestic budgetary considerations? What does slow or stagnant growth mean for member states’ defense spending, investment, and financial contributions to NATO? What does it mean for the Alliance’s ability to carry out current operations? What are the implications for future missions and capabilities?

Speakers:

• Rt Hon James Arbuthnot, MP, Chairman, UK Defence Select Committee
• Adrian P. Kendry, Senior Defence Economist and Head, Defence and Security Economics Directorate, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Chair:

• Ambassador J.D. Bindenagel, Vice President for Community, Government, and International Affairs, DePaul University, and former U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy in Berlin

Paper Writer:

• Dr. Josef Braml, Co-Editor, "DGAP-Jahrbuch" (Yearbook), German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

NATO's Political Ambitions in a Changing Strategic Context

Have U.S. and other allied interests diverged? Do European and Canadian allies have their own vision for NATO's future? How can NATO devise a strategy in line with its ambitions, and where should it place its focus in light of America's pivot toward Asia? What types of stresses might future political ambitions place on NATO's consensus decision-making?

Speakers:

• Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp, Director, Research Division, NATO Defense College
• Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council, and former special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European Affairs, U.S. National Security Council
• Dr. Bogusław W. Winid, Under-Secretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland

Chair:

• Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Director, The German Marshall Fund of the United States - France

Paper Writer:

• Dr. Henning Riecke, Head, Transatlantic Relations Program, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

Lunch and Keynote Address by Ambassador Ivo Daalder, United States Permanent Representative to NATO

Introduction:

• Ambassador Fay Hartog Levin, Senior Advisor, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and former U.S. Ambassador to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Afghanistan: Learning the Right Lessons and Turning to Transition

How effective has NATO been in commanding complex military operations? ISAF has taken a large share of responsibility in Afghanistan: what lessons can be learned from balancing interests of contributing nations with different levels of training, different command structures, rotating commands, sharing of air resources, and divided command? Can military effectiveness be improved given NATO's basic political structure? What are the mid- and long-term obstacles confronting transition in 2014 and the enduring partnership with Afghanistan? What implications will these challenges have on Afghanistan's economic future?

Speakers:

• Dr. Mark R. Jacobson, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, and former Deputy NATO Senior Civilian Representative (SCR) and Director of International Affairs, NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Headquarters in Kabul
• Lieutenant-General Marc Lessard (Ret.), Mentor/Senior Directing Staff, Canadian Forces College, and former Commander, Canadian Expeditionary Force Command (CEFCOM)
• Ahmed Rashid, Journalist and Author of Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan

Chair:

• Professor Michael Clarke, Director General, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Paper Writers:

• Beata Górka-Winter, Programme Coordinator on International Security, The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
• Dr. Elinor Sloan, Associate Professor of International Relations, Carleton University, Ottawa

Implementing Smart Defense

What are the basic requirements for operationalizing the "smart defense" agenda? Can concepts, such as the Mission Focus Groups, be helpful? What mechanisms exist, or should be built, to inform and consult on pending national decisions that could affect Alliance capabilities? How can the NATO summit in Chicago promote a more capable alliance vis-à-vis smart defense?

Speakers:

• Dr. Hans Binnendijk, Vice President for Research and Applied Learning, National Defense University (NDU), and Director and Roosevelt Chair, Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS)
• Sir Brian Burridge, Vice President, Strategic Marketing, Finmeccanica UK Ltd.

Paper Writer and Chair:

• Dr. Camille Grand, Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS)

NATO-Russia Relations: Achieving Meaningful Dialogue?

What are the concrete achievements of the U.S.-Russia "reset," and what is the outlook for a step change in NATO-Russia relations? Is genuine partnership possible if Russia does not see security as indivisible? Is there scope for technical and industrial cooperation short of missile defense cooperation? Can there be more cooperation on Afghanistan, transnational threats, and issues pertaining to the global commons? What are the implications of bilateral arrangements with Russia (such as in Germany) for the alliance?

Speakers:

• Steve Andreasen, National Security Consultant, Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), and former Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control, U.S. National Security Council
• Ambassador Rastislav Káčer, President, Slovak Atlantic Commission, and former Ambassador of Slovakia to the United States
• Dr. Dmitri Trenin, Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Chair:

Dr. Kennette Benedict, Executive Director and Publisher, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Paper Writers:

• Dr. Isabelle Francois, Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Security Studies, National Defense University (NDU)
• Dr. Dmitri Trenin, Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Strategic Partnerships: New Partners for New Challenges

How can NATO streamline its command structure to better integrate partners into future operations? Is there capacity for more training, capabilities, and/or support for democratic civilian-military cooperation in times of economic stress? What is Turkey's vision for the region, and where can it exercise leverage? Should partners in the Asia Pacific, like Australia, be more directly engaged?

Speakers:

• His Excellency Kim Beazley, AC, Ambassador of the Commonwealth of Australia to the United States
• Franklin Kramer, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, U.S. Department of Defense
• Ambassador Ümit Pamir, former Permanent Representative of Turkey to NATO, and Member of the High Advisory Board, Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) at Istanbul Kültür University

Chair:

• General Vincenzo Camporini (Ret.), Vice President, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), and former Chief of Defence General Staff, Italian Armed Forces

Paper Writers:

• Dr. Jonathan Eyal, Senior Fellow and Director, International Studies, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
• Lieutenant General Şadi Ergüvenç (Ret.), former Military Representative of Turkey, NATO Military Committee, and Member of the High Advisory Board, Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) at Istanbul Kültür University

Lunch and Keynote Address by Dr. Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO

Introduction:

• Dr. Fran Burwell, Vice President and Director, Transatlantic Relations Program, Atlantic Council of the United States

The Transatlantic Bargain After Gates

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ speech in June 2011 repeated in public what many have privately acknowledged: NATO, the lynchpin of European security and transatlantic relations, faces “the real possibility [of] a dim, if not dismal future.” What will this mean for NATO? Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has made it clear that the United States will pivot from its traditional Westward focus and look to “lock in a substantially increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region.” Although Secretary Clinton has made clear that Europe is a partner of “first resort,” where does NATO fit into a broader U.S. security strategy? Is the United States beginning to see NATO as a European security framework rather than a transatlantic one? What does the future hold for NATO and for America’s leadership role within the Alliance?

Speakers:

• His Excellency Martin Erdmann, Permanent Representative of the Federal Republic of Germany to NATO
• His Excellency Philippe Errera, Permanent Representative of France to NATO
• Barry Pavel, Director-Designate, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council

Chair:

• Dr. Rachel Bronson, Vice President, Studies, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Paper writers:

• Barry Pavel, Director-Designate, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council; and Jeff Lightfoot, Deputy Director, Program on International Security, Atlantic Council

Concluding Remarks:

• Dr. Rachel Bronson, Vice President, Studies, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs