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The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.   MORE »

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Featured Bet

Duration 10 years 02008-02017

“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”

PREDICTOR
Warren Buffett

CHALLENGER
Protege Partners, LLC

STAKES $1,000,000

will go to Girls Incorporated of Omaha if Buffett wins,
or Friends of Absolute Return for Kids, Inc if Protege Partners, LLC wins.

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Featured Prediction

Duration 57 years 02003-02060

“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”

PREDICTOR
Kevin Kelly

CHALLENGER
Challenge Kelly to a bet!

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