Earthquake Prediction
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| Any use of this site assumes acceptance of the DISCLAIMER at the bottom of this page |
| Please note that I have signficant concerns that the 'prediction' component of the site has NOT
been functioning properly since early January (2005). At some times there have been more quakes
predicted than would be expected, yet at other times predictions are disappearing. I have little
confidence this is actually correct! Therefore, please take any predictions with a VERY LARGE pinch
of salt until we have the chance to check things out. |
| This site presents an experimental global forecast of large earthquakes. The method used to generate this is known as the M8 algorithm. |
| Earthquake prediction is not easy. While we know that most large earthquakes occur along narrow zones which mark the edges of the crustal plates, due to the movement of these plates relative to one another, determining where a quake is likely to take place within these zones is essentially a search for an almost random event. Statistical techniques and numerical algorthms, as are attempted here, are always going to be very inaccurate. Better results may be obtained by carefully measuring stresses in the earth's crust, but the networks of instruments required are expensive and these methods too are fraught with disappointment. |
| The following list represents a current earthquake forecast. The list gives the dates between which an earthquake is more likely to occur together with its potential location. The forecast attempts to predict earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 7.5 on the Richter Scale. Areas within 427 km of the given location are considered to be within the region of increased probability. |
| From | | Until | | Latitude | | Longitude | | Flinn-Engdahl Region | | July 2006 | | July 2011 | | 5.24 | | 92.92 | | OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA | | January 2007 | | January 2012 | | 2.54 | | 94.90 | | OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | 0.01 | | 97.35 | | NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | -7.14 | | 104.59 | | SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | -8.01 | | 108.09 | | JAVA, INDONESIA | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | 45.74 | | 152.06 | | EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | 48.33 | | 155.82 | | KURIL ISLANDS | | January 2007 | | January 2012 | | -27.29 | | -175.36 | | KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION | | July 2007 | | July 2012 | | -25.90 | | -70.86 | | NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE | | January 2007 | | January 2012 | | -24.25 | | -70.33 | | NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE | | January 2007 | | January 2012 | | -23.63 | | -70.65 | | NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE | |
Click HERE to view the areas of increased probability displayed on a global map.
The areas of increased probability will be displayed as red areas within green bands of possible earthquake
occurence. It is then possible to zoom into specfic areas and display these alongside different contextual
data layers.
DISCLAIMER:
The contents of these pages and maps represent the application of a statistical technique to forecast an essentially random event, the results of which must be regarded as INACCURATE. This site is purely for EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY and should in NO WAY be considered to be a serious prediction of seismic risk. This is an experiment. The authors of the site, its algorithms and data ACCEPT NO LIABILITY UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES FOR ANY USE OF ANY INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THIS SITE.
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