Tuesday, November 06, 2012
2012 Election Predictions
Obama: 303 EV - 51.2% of Popular Vote
Romney: 235 EV - 48.4% of Popular Vote
Obama Swing States:
Colorado
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania (not really a swing state)
Virgina
Wisconsin
Romney Swing States:
Florida
North Carolina
No real big surprises.
Senate
Democrats: 54
Republican: 46
Democrats increase majority by 1
Toss Up Senate Races:
Arizona - Flake (R) - Hold (But will be close)
Connecticut - Murphy (D) - Hold
Florida - Nelson (D) - Hold
Indiana - Donnelly (D) - Pick up
Mass. - Warren (D) - Pick up
Missouri - McCaskill (D) - Hold
Mont. - Tester (D) - Hold
Nevada - Heller (R) - Hold
N. Dakota - Berg (R) - Pick Up
Ohio - Brown (D) - Hold
Penn. - Casey (D) - Hold (But may be a nail biter)
Virgina - Kaine (D) - Hold
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) - Hold
House
Democrats pick up 5 seats, but I have no idea where.
posted by Jay at 10:52 AM |
Monday, May 02, 2011
The Celebrations Tonight
posted by Jay at 1:42 AM |
Sunday, May 01, 2011
Bin Laden Dead
posted by Jay at 11:02 PM |
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Political Discourse Today
But we can’t expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question somebody’s views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism… Now, we’ve seen this kind of politics in the past. It’s been practiced by both fringes of the ideological spectrum, by the left and the right, since our nation’s birth. But it’s starting to creep into the center of our discourse. And the problem with it is not the hurt feelings or the bruised egos of the public officials who are criticized. Remember, they signed up for it. … The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning -- since, after all, why should we listen to a ‘fascist,’ or a ‘socialist,’ or a ‘right-wing nut,’ or a left-wing nut’?
posted by Jay at 11:15 AM |
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Congratulations Speaker Boehner
I am ever hopeful that the greatest country in the history of the world will continue to move forward as a beacon of hope and inspiration.
posted by Jay at 10:29 AM |
I Guess This is One Way to Have Palin Look Like More Moderate
ABC News has learned that Bachmann, R-Minn., also is seriously weighing whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.
A source close to the three-term congresswoman said Bachmann will travel to Iowa this month for multiple meetings to seek advice from political forces there and party elders close to the caucus process before coming to a final decision regarding a potential presidential run. Bachmann, a native of Waterloo, Iowa, also is set to deliver a keynote speech at an Iowans for Tax Relief PAC fundraiser Jan. 21 in Des Moines, Iowa.I had thought she would be running for the Senate seat in 12, but apparently she has her sights set higher.
posted by Jay at 9:07 AM |
Friday, November 26, 2010
True Thanks
posted by Jay at 11:25 AM |
Friday, November 12, 2010
Serenity Now, Serenity Now
Said Shimkus: "The Earth will end only when God declares it's time to be over. Man will not destroy this Earth. This Earth will not be destroyed by a Flood. I do believe that God's word is infallible, unchanging, perfect."
(H/T - Political Wire)
posted by Jay at 8:51 AM |
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Election Night Live Blogging
OK, getting late. The key number is 52. If Dems have 52 Senators, its OK. Washington will then be really funny to watch. (and I have officially given up on Palm Beach County voting.)
12:35 - FL Gov's race comes down to Palm Beach County, OY
Please, Please, Please - I want Palin v. Obama in 12. I'll even give her cash.
12:32 - Losses in PA, IL & Wisc cause the stomach acid in the WH tonight
12:31 - Fox says Reid wins.
12:12 - Looks like Reid might win more comfortably than most Dems tonight.
12:11 - Really, Arizona, Jan Brewer?
12:05 - hey CNN, Obama has done transformational. Look at what he has done. (and does Mary Matlin have a migraine?)
11:57 - CNN says Dems hold Senate, defeat history.
11:51 - GOP winning for CT gov, but votes still outstanding in Stamford, Bridgeport and Hartford.
11:47 - Does Boehner crying really help?
11:45 - Penn. Sen and OH Gov appear to be going to the GOP. False illusions from earlier.
11:32 - Alot of the missing votes in Fla appear to be from Palm Beach. Sink has hope.
11:19 - May seem obvious, but key to the House in 2012 for Dems will be recruiting. Find good candidates! Lots of seats that are winnable.
11:10 - CNN just announced no votes in Nevada, but still won't make call. (Why wait?)
11:04 - Hard to say who has less insightful statement - Spitzer v. Parker
10:53 - Apparently Scott has gotten the call in FL. I shiver. He becomes the most unpopular Governor in America before he is even inaugurated.
10:50 - I literally expect nothing to happen over the next 2 years. Advantage Obama.
10:44 - Shrugging about House. Had assumed we would lose, numbers don't matter, given the Parlimenatry nature of House (especially for GOP).
10:36 - Wisconsin will be a dark spot.
10:33 - BTW was in Hickenlooper's bar in Denver last week. Good Beer.
10:30 - Colorado may be another bright spot for Dems. (Few and far between)
10:25 - words that should strike fear in all voter - "problems with the vote in Palm Beach County."
(calling Theressa LaPorre)
10:14 - Looks like Amendments 5&6 in Florida will pass. Good news for gerrymandering-foes!
10:08 - Expect gridlock. House will be uncontrollable with lots of tea-partiers. (White House secretly giddy, if they can keep Senate.)
9:49 - Looks like Mass is back in the Dem camp. Patrick wins and keep 10 of 10 seats. Scott brown was a fluke.
9:43 - Also some weird results out of South Carolina. Gov's race is too close to call, Alvin Greene got 30+% and Joe "You Lie" Wilson is losing. Weird when S.C. may be a Democratic bright spot.
9:40 - Getting pessimistic about Sink's chance in Florida. But still no results from Hillsborough County and need more from Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward. Still some hope.
9:32 - Listening to Rubio victory speech. I may be alone, but I have never impressed with Marco Rubio. But I do expect to see him on a GOP ticket within the next 12 years. (BTW - line of note in the speech "no matter what title I may achieve.")
9:17 - Florida results are maddeningly slow this year.
9:10 - Nate Silver projects 90% of House takeover, but only 2% Senate takeover. This defies history that when the House flips, so does the Senate.
9:06 - Races in Wisc, Penn., Illinois, and Colorado Senate races could really change the storyline tomorrow.
9:00 - Exit polls in Wisconsin suggests this may be closer than thought
8:49 - With W.V. being called for Manchin, looks like Dems will hold Senate. House will be a very different story. Virgina, which was purple in 08, looks to be red again.
posted by Jay at 8:50 PM |
Quick Predictions for Today
The GOP takes over, wins 55 seats from Dems, but nets 51 after losing their own seats in DE-At Large, HI-1, FL-25 and IL-10.
Senate
Democrats hold the Senate, 53-47. Wins in Colorado and West Virginia. Losses in Nevada and Wisconsin. Surprise win for Democrats in Alaska, but won't be decided for another month. California is closer than expected
Governors
A couple key races, Dems win Florida, Colorado and Ohio. GOP wins in Oregon and Illinois.
(More detailed predictions if I can find the time today)
posted by Jay at 7:07 AM |
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Football
posted by Jay at 9:23 AM |
Saturday, September 11, 2010
9/11 Nine Years later
Let’s not make this about religions, but combating the extremists in any culture or religion.
I could talk about my own events of that day, but they seem less important against the anti-Islam wave that seems to have finally arrived. (And to his credit, rarely given here, George W. Bush was the primary reason that the anti-Islam wave took so long to hit the American shore.)
**This is the first year that I had to explain September 11th to my 10 year old. He actually asked me if he ever saw the Twin Towers (he did).**
posted by Jay at 10:31 PM |
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Once Again Jon Stewart Provides The Wisdom So Needed By America
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
Municipal Land-Use Hearing Update | ||||
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posted by Jay at 10:29 PM |
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Pesky Facts
Maybe we need more immigrants in Arizona. Seems like maybe that would reduce the crazy quotient.
posted by Jay at 10:46 PM | ">