Public Policy Polling

We've been giving you (and ourselves) a short break on the public polling but after Thanksgiving we'll get back to our normal two polls a week schedule and turn our eyes toward 2013/14...so...where would you like us to kick off our polling for the next cycle? We'll take suggestions through the weekend, pick finalists and put them to a vote on Monday, have voting through Thursday, take question suggestions for the winner next weekend, and launch them the Monday after Thanksgiving!

On our final polls for this election cycle we also looked ahead to the 2014 race for Governor in every state that has one, testing the sitting incumbent against a generic opponent of the opposite party. Here's what we found, grouped into three different categories:

Folks in a whole lot of trouble:

Many of the Republicans who were swept into office by the wave election of 2010 may have a hard time winning a second term if 2014 doesn't prove to be another huge year for their party.

In Pennsylvania Tom Corbett trails a generic Democrat 47/37. In Maine Paul LePage trails a hypothetical opponent from the opposite party 49/41. Both of them became unpopular pretty early in their terms and have stayed that way.

Other Republicans who look highly vulnerable next time around are Florida's Rick Scott who trails a generic Democrats 48/44, and Ohio's John Kasich who leads a potential foe only 44/43. The good news for these folks at least is that their numbers have been on an upward trajectory during their second year in office- they both trailed by much wider margins at this time a year ago.

Folks who look favored for another term, at least for now:

Three other Republican Governors elected in 2010 lead hypothetical Democratic opponents for 2014 by single digit margins- they look like favorites for now but could become more vulnerable. Those are Michigan's Rick Snyder (47/41 against a generic Dem), Wisconsin's Scott Walker (50/43), and Iowa's Terry Branstad (49/40). All three of these Governors posted pretty poor numbers during their first year in office but have seen significant improvement in their standing in year 2.

Democrat Dan Malloy of Connecticut also belongs in this category. We've tended to find him as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country so far but he saw a major improvement in our last poll to the point where he led a hypothetical Republican foe 48-37. It's hard to say what might have produced such a sudden, substantial improvement- perhaps his leadership during the hurricane? if that is the case we'll have to keep an eye on whether his improved numbers are permanent or just fleeting.

Folks who look pretty safe for now:

Democrats Mark Dayton of Minnesota and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, and Republican Brian Sandoval of Nevada have all had consistently high approval numbers since taking office and continue to. Dayton leads a generic Republican 51/38, and Hickenlooper does 54/33. Sandoval leads a generic Democrat 55/32.

We'll kick off our more extensive 2013/2014 cycle Gubernatorial polling the week after Thanksgiving.

PPP's final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25 points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.

In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent voters, 59/34. He's down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under 45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic for a long time to come. Obama's actually running slightly ahead with white voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics it fuels his overall 6 point lead.

In Nevada Obama's going into election day with a large lead. We find that among early voters he's up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to vote tomorrow but he'd need a much wider margin than that given that most of the state has already voted. Obama's leading based on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).

The greater intrigue in Nevada will be the Senate race where we find Dean Heller leading Shelley Berkley 48/46 with Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek at 4%. VanderBeek seems to mostly be pulling from Berkley- his supporters are voting for Obama by a 56/27 margin. Heller needs those folks to follow through on voting third party to hold on to his small advantage.

There is one good sign in the poll for Berkley that speaks to the potential for an upset. Among early voters she's leading 52/44, running only three points behind Obama's 55/44 standing. If she can somehow continue to only run 3 points behind him among election day voters there's a good chance he could pull her across the finish line assuming that he does indeed end up taking the state by a margin of 4 points or more.

If Berkley wins it's definitely going to be the Democratic lean of the state that does it for her. She is very unpopular with only 39% of voters viewing her favorably to 55% with a negative opinion. By contrast Heller's approval rating is 47/42.

Finally, Colorado is set to legalize marijuana tomorrow. 52% of voters support the amendment to do so, compared to 44% who are opposed.

Full results here

PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).

In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.

Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.

Full results here