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SNAPSHOT as of November 6, 12:00PM EST:
Obama: 312
Romney: 226
Meta-margin: Obama +2.46%
RSS
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 99.2%, Bayesian Prediction 100.0%

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Meta-analysis of polls

Reducing state-level Presidential polls to a single high-precision snapshot. more
Presidential History and snapshot (click for detail)

EV and Meta-Margin history
State-by-State Presidential Maps
Interactive (Java) Maps:
- With current polling
- With +2% for Obama
- With +2% for Romney
Senate and House

--> General outlook 2012 Polls:
Senate (10/31): 53 D/I, 47 R (50% CI: 53-55 D/I)
House current polls

The Power Of Your Vote

(why care about this?)

State	Margin	Power
NH	Obama +2%	100.0
IA	Obama +2%	82.2
PA	Obama +3%	77.8
OH	Obama +3%	74.0
NV	Obama +5%	71.9
VA	Obama +2%	71.0
CO	Obama +2%	63.7
WI	Obama +4.5%	44.7
NM	Obama +6%	30.1
FL	Tied	26.6
MI	Obama +5.5%	21.6
OR	Obama +6%	19.1
NC	Romney +2%	5.2
MN	Obama +7.5%	3.2
LA	Romney +13%	0.9
NJ	Obama +12%	0.00091492

Meta-Analysis Thread
- With Jay Ackroyd at 9pm (soon!)
  November 8, 2012 | 7:25 pm
  Hi, all. A bit inundated with media, and also recovering. However…join me with Jay Ackroyd on a webcast of Virtually Speaking, in 1.5 hours – at 9pm Eastern. See you! call in: 646 200 3440
- Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)
  November 6, 2012 | 11:47 am
  Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be used – and therefore reduce uncertainty. We’ll have that in a bit. Calculating and double-checking…stand by.
- Test – Facebook open thread
  November 1, 2012 | 3:45 pm
  (original version released November 1, 3:45pm on temporary site)
  
  I miss my commenters! Let’s see if Facebook-based threads are sustainable. Open discussion thread for the Presidential race. Ro-mentum, early voting, whatever…have at it!
- Archive for Meta-Analysis Thread »

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Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history

About this site

Sam’s optimized picks

Data from…

Brain Books by Sam

Blogroll

Details of the Meta-Analysis

Monthly Archives

Browse the Archives...

by month:

by Category:

Meta-analysis of polls

Presidential History and snapshot (click for detail)

State-by-State Presidential Maps

Senate and House

The Power Of Your Vote

Meta-Analysis Thread