The Nasdaq 100 will at least boink the upper Bollinger Band and then grind around into a new rally leg if past is prologue.  The US indexes hit a point of short-term over bought, but resumed climbing right away to new highs after a quick hit.  This has to be considered bullish activity.  Maybe we grind though the Fiscal Cliff ™ noise and the upcoming FOMC and then get some Santa going?

The caveat (isn’t there always one?) is that this assumes NDX is not just filling a gap.  It must stay above the green line.

Why Increased Revenues Won’t Solve Fiscal Cliff  Tom McClellan  11.30.12
A Different Kind of Gold Investor  TGR  11.30.12
In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the US  EWI  11.30.12
Why the Idea of Secession is Spreading  Bill Bonner  11.30.12
BEA Raises Q3 2012 GDP Growth Estimate to 2.67%  Consumer Metrics  11.30.12
Strong Breadth  B.I.G.  11.30.12
Paul Krugman’s Dangerous Misconceptions  Acting Man  11.30.12
Hyperinflation & the Pernicious Myth of Modern Monetary Theory  Jesse  11.30.12

biiwii.com/wordpress/news-analysis/

With all the weird ratios and indicators I use, sometimes just a simple look at a disgusting picture like USD’s weekly chart is needed; in this case to reaffirm the bullish market stance for an intermediate swing.

You know, charts do not get much uglier than this.

Admittedly, the H&S is just theoretical at this point, but the Bear Flag up to resistance and MACD look flat out lousy.  This chart reaffirms as well that the d Boys (that’s deflationists) have probably had their day for a while.

Meanwhile, we endure these clowns in Washington and their Fiscal Cliff ™ drama and the mainstream media that fan the flames.

This is just a friendly reminder about how bloody important it is for the HUI-Gold Ratio (HGR) leading indicator (to the precious metals sector) to maintain its higher lows status.

Yesterday the goons apparently attacked ‘paper gold’ (according to sources who stand on guard for this stuff) after the HGR had become weak.  A pleasant thing happened however, as the HGR did not buy the take down in nominal gold.  2 Hour chart above.

Thus the critical higher low to last summer’s low remains in place despite a savage day yesterday.  Daily chart above.

Which allowed HGR to maintain itself well above the critical ‘Armageddon 08′ low.  Weekly chart above.

Which itself was a higher low to the kickoff of the secular bull market in 2000 (in nominal HUI, not this ratio).  Monthly chart above.

The HGR does indeed look lame over the big picture, but as long as the higher lows are in place and as long as macro fundamentals (e.g. the real price of gold) are in place the above is a view of a buying opportunity, as pained as it is to endure for those already all in.

It is a view of opportunity as long as we do not get violations, so you can see why it was a little unsettling when the ratio began to waterfall (by the 2 hour chart at top) into what we now assume was a well coordinated hit (in line with the terrible CoT data noted in this space a couple days ago.

It’s all in good fun I suppose.  At some point the goons will be behind us, as will this accursed noise about the Fiscal Cliff ™ in which markets are finding the latest emotional obsessions.  Indicators like the HGR quietly whir beneath the surface and while it got hairy the other day, it remains unbroken.

www.biiwii.com, Twitter, Free eLetter

Pivotal Events  Bob Hoye  11.29.12 pdf
That Republican Tax Pledge  Bill Bonner  11.29.12
Fund Managers Talk Gold Mining  TGR  11.29.12
Yes, I am Optimistic!  Chris Mayer  11.29.12
Gold Stocks Approaching a Crossroads  Jordan Roy-Byrne  11.29.12
Special Dividends Through Year End  B.I.G.  11.29.12
Today’s News & Traders’ Blog  INO.com  11.29.12
Comex Open Saw 24 Tonnes of Paper Gold Dumped at Market…  Jesse  11.29.12

biiwii.com/wordpress/news-analysis/

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