Contribute Now to pollcalc

by Sam Wang

Generally, I believe that donations ought to be made in cases where the outcome is relatively uncertain, e.g. in the 20-80% probability range. This maximizes the per-dollar impact of your donation in affecting the outcome.

A perfect example is the U.S. Senate. Although the Democrats are certain of getting to 51 seats, a simple majority, more seats will help enact a Democratic agenda. In addition, Senate races cost less money than the national race, so your money will mean more to the candidates.

Your money is most effective in cases where the races are tightest. Current polling margins for many races can be obtained at Pollster.com. In the Senate, the closest races are currently in Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oregon. Therefore you should donate in one of those races. Winning all of them would lead to a 58-42 majority.

You probably came to this site through my polling meta-analysis. If so, I thank you for your readership and for your support.

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