Methodology

Our team of dedicated industry forecasters produces over 40 forecasts each year, covering 220 countries on a range of topics from TV subscribers to mobile advertising revenues to smartphone usage.

We believe that forecasts should be prepared as part of a collaborative, integrated process involving both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Informa’s 5-stage forecast methodology:

• Forecast scope – Including metric scope (overall objective), geographical scope and horizon scope.
• Market mind-map – This process identifies the key players (and their role in the value chain), key drivers and inhibitors of growth and the addressable market.
• Data collection – Four main data types are researched and analyzed: operational; financial; socioeconomic and demographic. We source data using both primary and secondary research techniques.
• Model design – Three core techniques are used when designing models: causal/explanatory (e.g., multiple regression); time-series (logistic curves, exponential smoothing, ARIMA) judgemental. Economic theory also plays an integral part in our model design; our understanding of concepts such as elasticity of demand and experience curves enables us to identify appropriate modelling assumptions. We also use scenarios to illustrate different views of a market’s potential development.
• Validation - on the production of the first set of forecasts, these are validated via internal and external benchmarking.

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