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Urban fantasy: confirmed undead

Aug 24th, 2009
by Tim Holman.

Much of the discussion concerning the general state of the SFF market tends to ignore urban fantasy. However, remove urban fantasy from the current SFF bestseller charts, and they collapse. Most of the bestselling authors disappear; many of the most successful new authors launched over recent years disappear; many of the authors with most rapidly growing sales disappear. Remove urban fantasy and a very different picture emerges of the state of the SFF market.

Last year, I posted briefly on the increasing number of urban fantasy novels at the top of the fantasy bestseller charts in the US from 2004-07, and following a conversation in the office have just checked the stats for 2008. Of the 20 bestselling fantasy books of 2008, no fewer than 15 were urban fantasy. Include science fiction, and still 9 of the Top 20 bestsellers in the SFF market were urban fantasy.

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This week, no fewer than 28 of the Top 50 fantasy bestsellers in the US are urban fantasy titles, and this week is not exceptional. The rise of urban fantasy has without any doubt been the biggest category shift within the SFF market of the last 10 years in the US. Elsewhere, the trend has been less dramatic, but often significant and it is continuing to be an upward one.

How does this affect SFF publishers? Naturally, publishers respond to trends (and publishers tend to spend more time and energy trying to follow trends than setting them). If, for example, higher sales can be expected from an urban fantasy debut than a hard-SF debut, more publishers will be more inclined to publish more urban fantasy debuts than hard-SF debuts. More authors being published in one category will generally mean fewer authors being published in another. Particularly when the alpha category starts to dominate bestseller charts.

So, if urban fantasy is dominating the bestseller lists, does it follow that it is also dominating SFF publishers’ lists? It seems not – or at least not to the same extent. The proportion of urban fantasy titles published last year by the major SFF imprints in the US was 14%, considerably less than the proportion of urban fantasy books on the bestseller charts.

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Needless to say, some imprints publish more urban fantasy than others (the range is from approximately 3% to 33%). It’s clear, however, that urban fantasy is more prevalent on the SFF bestseller charts than it is on SFF publishers’ lists. Urban fantasy is trending upward on both, but will this discrepancy continue? Putting it another way, can you imagine an SFF imprint publishing, for example, 5 books each month, 3 of them being urban fantasy? In today’s market, it’s quite possible that this imprint is more likely to succeed than one with 3 out of every 5 books being something other than urban fantasy.

It’s up to individual publishers, of course, to determine the balance of their lists, and thankfully we don’t all end up with the same strategy. However, publishers are still likely to reconfigure to some extent when there is a significant category shift in the market. For example, editors with expertise in the urban fantasy field are likely to be in higher demand (others less so). Why hire an editor with a brilliant publishing instinct for hard SF if hard SF only makes up 2% of the publisher’s business? Ditto marketeers, publicists, and designers. Elsewhere in the industry too: literary agents are more likely to take on urban fantasy authors if they know there’s a good chance of finding enthusiastic publishers for them; and, last but by no means least, booksellers are more likely to find promotional space in stores for urban fantasy authors if they’re confident of strong sales.

When we launched Orbit in the US, we took the decision to publish across the spectrum of SF and Fantasy – even those parts of it that, if the marketplace were to be believed, provided a lower expectation of sales. If we had followed the current market in the strictest sense, at least half of our list would have been urban fantasy (or half of our expected revenue, which isn’t always the same thing). For urban fantasy fans, of course, this might have been great; for the SFF field more generally, I’m not so sure.

At the moment, urban fantasy is finding a larger readership than any kind of SF and the majority of other fantasy sub-genres. However, there’s no reason to think that this will always be the case; and perhaps the growth of urban fantasy is indicative of the wider potential appeal of other kinds of SFF genre fiction. Whether this is true or not, the challenge for SFF publishers not transforming their imprints into urban fantasy imprints is clear.

Posted in: Posts.
Tagged: trends · urban fantasy

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25 Comments

  1. spacer Andy says:
    August 25, 2009 at 2:15 am

    Are sales of non-urban scifi and/or fantasy dropping (and if so by how much) or is urban fantasy growing the market for scifi and fantasy in general?

    Over the last few years I have changed from being mostly a fantasy reader into mostly a scifi reader myself, but I do still enjoy some fantasy and i have started reading urban fantasy as well.

  2. Cheryl’s Mewsings » Blog Archive » Oh No, Link Salad says:
    August 25, 2009 at 11:22 am

    [...] Holman has some more fascinating data, this time proving that urban fantasy is keeping the SF&F business [...]

  3. spacer Tim Holman says:
    August 25, 2009 at 1:10 pm

    Andy: great question.

    In the US market, there were slightly more SFF books sold in 2008 than in 2007. This doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that sales of non-urban-fantasy SFF books did not decline.

    In the UK (where there has not been such a dramatic increase in urban fantasy sales), the total SFF market declined in 2008, though almost all of the decline can be accounted for by an adult-edition Harry Potter release in 2007. Although sales went down in 2008, they were still higher than in 2006.

    It is worth bearing in mind that underlying trends can sometimes be obscured when looking at data from one year to the next (since you’re not comparing identical publishing programmes from every publisher). Eliminating the various anomalies in the data isn’t easy, and it is possible to draw different conclusions from it, but my view – based on the available data and direct publishing experience – is that the market for books published as category SFF (excluding urban fantasy) is reasonably stable in the UK and declining in the US.

  4. spacer Valentin Ivanov says:
    August 26, 2009 at 6:49 am

    Thanks! I really like to idea of going about this in a stringent way as oposed to relying on handwaving arguments!

    I recently looked into the demography of the speculative fiction sub-genres myself, using the monthly Locus reviews. The results were piblished in Strange Horizons (see the web link). True, I didn’t separate the urban fantasy from the fantasy category, but my conclusions seem to agree with the numbers given here. In fact, the grouth of the urban fantasy may be the explanation why we see such a surge of the fantasy books in the reviews.

  5. spacer Nicole Peeler says:
    August 26, 2009 at 7:33 am

    I think UF is a more accessible genre for readers unfamiliar or uncomfortable with the idea of SF/F, and series such as Twilight and True Blood (The Southern Vampire Mystery Series) have made it doubly so. Therefore it makes sense to me that, right now, sales are very high in UF. However, once a customer new to SF/F begins browsing that section, looking for a new UF title, it might make them Orc-curious. In other words, once they start reading and shopping in the UF market, they may springboard into more traditional SF/F.

    They are certainly more likely to read across the genre than if they’d never entered that section of the bookstore in the first place.

  6. spacer Tim Holman says:
    August 26, 2009 at 8:46 am

    Nicole: I completely agree. Accessibility has been key to the success of UF, and it may well be that UF readers are drawn to other kinds of SFF because of the genre connection. The idea that somebody might only be looking at other kinds of SFF because they’re browsing for UF also highlights a key issue for SFF publishers: are other SFF genres actually inaccessible (or less accessible), or is it just that the potential readers of them are not being reached effectively enough? I don’t think it can be argued that epic fantasy, for example, has an unavoidable accessibility problem when Tolkien (books and movies) can excite millions. I certainly agree that some SFF sub-genres are by their nature more accessible than others – but I’ve got a feeling that the issue of accessibility might be as much to do with the marketing (in all senses) of genre than the books themselves.

  7. Southern Fried Chicas » Blog Archive » This –N– That says:
    August 26, 2009 at 4:04 pm

    [...] to Tim Holman over at The Publisher Files: “Of the 20 bestselling fantasy books of 2008, no fewer than 15 were urban fantasy. Include [...]

  8. The Great Geek Manual » Geek Media Round-Up: August 26, 2009 says:
    August 26, 2009 at 8:58 pm

    [...] The Publisher Files declares Urban Fantasy Undead. That’s right, dead, then returned from the dead. [...]

  9. spacer Nicole Peeler says:
    August 27, 2009 at 7:50 am

    Tim:

    I think much of the problem lies with the issues you raised with your cover blog post, regarding the tendency of SOME fantasy publishers (but not Orbit, obviously), to wedge weird cartoony blonde women with buxom cleavage and bizarrely muscular calves encased in fur boots onto their covers. The woman are usually wielding a weapon; there is some kind of wizard or dragon behind them; and everything is pastel.

    It takes a lot of loyalty to a genre to open up a book like that at a cafe, or on the subway. You might as well be holding a sign that says, “I Studied Klingon at University.”

    People like you will be unfazed, but the rest of the world will have a wee giggle.

    That’s why Orbit rocks. Your covers are amazing. Who wouldn’t read the Orc book, in public? But think of all the ways that cover could have gone horribly wrong and become the kind you wrap in paper on the subway, like it’s a 40 oz of Schlitz?

    Just because we’re nerds, doesn’t mean we don’t have a sense of aesthetics (or a modicum of street cred) but not all publishing companies recognize this.

  10. spacer Nicole Peeler says:
    August 27, 2009 at 7:51 am

    And by you, I meant us. spacer

  11. spacer Harry Markov says:
    August 27, 2009 at 8:48 am

    I just want to underline that the reason why Urban Fantasy has boosted its sales lies within television as a medium. It was not long ago when shows like Buffy and its spin-off Angel created dedicated fan bases in several countries across most continents. This opened doors to shows like Warehouse 13, Fringe, Sanctuary and Supernatural and many others, which as far as classification goes are Urban Fantasy. Since television has a bigger role in the average person’s daily routine, commercials and such can easily affect his tastes and shows like these with high ratings immediately open appetite for those people that also like to read to experience similar stories, but with books.

    And since there is no formula on how to write UF, much of the world’s mythologies and urban legends remain open for interpretation. I can see how curiosity towards a more detailed exploration of different mythologies and tropes touched in UF could push a reader into other SF/F genres. In this sense UF is very accessible and also an introductory genre.

  12. spacer Tim Holman says:
    August 28, 2009 at 6:49 am

    Nicole: very nicely put! And when you say “not all publishing companies recognize this”, I think it’s important to identify which part of the publishing company. I’ve often heard talk, for example, of the power wielded by sales and marketing departments (and related suggestions that the only people who matter when it comes to covers are the buyers at the major chains). Not in my experience, but I’ll be posting on this at a later date.

    Harry: and I agree. But SF-al stories aren’t exactly hard to find on TV (and even more so in movie theaters, and in video games). I’ve heard it argued that this might be the reason SF-category fiction isn’t thriving at the moment – that there’s plenty of other SF out there. I don’t agree with this.

  13. spacer jamie dessart says:
    August 28, 2009 at 10:40 am

    Question for all: where can I find a good working definition of urban fantasy? Also, any idea historically when the name was first used and by whom? I’ve very interested in tracking this from a scholarly perspective.

  14. spacer Mark Chadbourn says:
    August 31, 2009 at 6:11 am

    Very interesting article indeed. I’m wondering about the definition of ‘urban fantasy’ too. Are we really talking about the “new horror” – vampires, shapeshifters and werewolves – or traditional fantasy in an urban setting? I’m guessing the former, which would make urban fantasy the true successor to the horror boom of the eighties.

    There are parallels. Stephen King and his imitators succeeded on such a grand scale because, imo, they reflected a world and characters that was hugely recognisable to the vast bulk of readers and then shaded in the fantastic elements. There wasn’t that instant barrier of the bizarre that prevents a lot of mainstream readers sampling SFF. The Urban Fantasy of the True Blood stripe does the same.

  15. spacer Tim Holman says:
    August 31, 2009 at 7:35 am

    Mark: the trends here derive from the urban fantasy of vampires, shapeshifters and werewolves (contemporary urban fantasy), which I should have specified. I know that there are alternative definitions and reasonable arguments concerning which books could be considered urban fantasy, but the category shift highlighted in this post specifically relates to the vampire, shapeshifter and werewolf variety.

    I’ve got a feeling (no charts, I’m afraid!) that we are also seeing more “traditional fantasy in an urban setting”; however, I suspect that this might be related more to current trends within other-world fantasy than the forces that are contributing to the increasing popularity of contemporary urban fantasy.

    I completely agree with the 80s horror parallel (though I suspect that the audience is often quite different, in spite of obvious horror elements in much contemporary urban fantasy).

  16. spacer Rose Fox says:
    August 31, 2009 at 10:09 am

    Are you including paranormal romance (e.g. Laurell K. Hamilton) in your “urban fantasy” designation?

  17. spacer Tim Holman says:
    August 31, 2009 at 10:53 am

    Rose: I’m including whatever falls within the SFF market data, and that includes Laurell K. Hamilton. Those books categorized as paranormal romance don’t appear in SFF market data. I know that there is debate over whether certain books are more correctly designated UF or paranormal romance, but I believe the data as it stands is good enough to portray the UF trend within the SFF market accurately.

  18. spacer Rose Fox says:
    August 31, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    Oh yes, not arguing with your results at all, and I think it’s great that you’re doing this analysis. The field needs more real market research.

    I am intrigued that paranormal romance is billed in the market data as a subgenre of romance rather than a subgenre of SF/F/H (not least because PW reviews it under SF/F/H). For that matter, I think of urban fantasy as a subgenre of mystery at least as much as a subgenre of SF/F/H, but I also tend to see subgenres as tag clouds rather than hierarchical trees, so it really isn’t surprising that this sort of categorization scheme doesn’t quite match what’s in my head!

  19. spacer Patricia Mathews says:
    September 3, 2009 at 1:45 pm

    For a presentation (and possible book) that is currently in preparation, I have defined three main types of paranormal fiction series as follows. My focus is on 21st century paranormal fiction:

    Soul Mate Romance Series: (SM)
    In a paranormal soul mate romance story, the focus is on the heroine as she falls in love with her future mate, generally a paranormal being (e.g., vampire, werewolf, demon), at first sight. By the end of the book, they marry, or at least head off into a happy future together. There may be bumps along the way (ah, those stressful second thoughts and pesky plot intrusions!), but these books concentrate on the romance and end with the feeling that the couple will live happily ever after. Although they are similar to regular romance novels, the soul mate bond is much stronger than in regular romances. In fact, the soul mate bond is a bond for life: if one dies, the other will also die almost immediately.

    Urban Fantasy Series: (UF)
    In an urban fantasy, the protagonist generally is an insecure loner with some type of developed or undeveloped supernatural power (e,g,, necromancer, wizard, witch, empath, psychic, shapeshifter), lives in an urban environment in the contemporary world, and has plenty of cynical attitude. The protagonist is often adopted, with birth parent(s) who deserted or died during his or her infancy. Generally, the story is told in a first-person narrative in a multi-book sequence and does not have the typical romantic, happy ending. Romance may play a part in the plot, but it is not the primary focus. This sub-genre is more closely connected to American noir fiction (i.e., the hard-boiled detective) than to fantasy or romance fiction, although there are definitely elements of fantasy involved as well.

    Chick Lit: (CH)
    Paranormal chick lit features attractive, hip, career-driven female protagonists, typically in their twenties and thirties, with some type of supernatural trait—from psychic to succubus. The heroine, who generally lives in an urban area, is frequently obsessed with her appearance and loves to shop (especially for shoes). As a rule, the plot follows the heroine’s love life and her struggles for professional success (often in the publishing, advertising, or fashion industry). The tone is breezy and irreverent. The narration and dialogue frequently include profanity as well as current slang and clichés. The heroine’s close relationships with her friends are very important to the stories. Sensuality levels are generally high.

  20. spacer Jennifer Rardin says:
    September 4, 2009 at 7:20 am

    Thanks for this, Tim. At the end of October I’m slated to speak to about 140 Illinois librarians about why they should embrace urban fantasy. I’m calling my talk “Monster Cuddling: 101.” Your data will help my case!

  21. spacer Tim Holman says:
    September 6, 2009 at 7:53 pm

    Jennifer: I hope the data helps. One of the advantages of talking to people about relatively well-defined genres such as ours is that trends can be identified more accurately and confidently. There are always some who don’t believe the numbers (usually because they don’t want to believe the numbers), but I always think it’s worth including facts and figures if they’re available and relevant. Hope it goes well!

  22. Some good news for those writing UF « Kathleen Peacock says:
    September 7, 2009 at 4:52 am

    [...] 28, 2009 by Kathleen Interesting post on Tim Holman’s blog about urban fantasy sales and the percentage of UF titles being [...]

  23. The Windup Links « Torque Control says:
    September 8, 2009 at 2:18 am

    [...] Holman’s graphs of the commercial rise of what we are now calling urban fantasy; see also Paula Guran’s notes [...]

  24. A Ton of Links | Mostly Geek says:
    September 26, 2009 at 11:53 pm

    [...] – Mr Holman is the Publisher at Orbit. He’s writen some cool stuff including the state of the Urban Fantasy sub-genre and what gets onto the covers of fantasy [...]

  25. Genreville » Blog Archive » Relaunch in Six… Five… Four… says:
    December 8, 2009 at 1:37 am

    [...] Tim Holman notes urban fantasy’s domination of the SF/F bestseller lists. [...]

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