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by Matt Hinton

Of the many footnotes accompanying Johnny Manziel's emergence as one of a very small handful of must-watch players in college football, begin with the fact that almost no one watching Texas A&M's spring practices expected him to be the Aggies' starting quarterback. No, by all accounts at the time, that job was Jameill Showers' to lose. It was Showers, the reports said, who possessed the arm, the experience, and the poise. Manziel? Talented kid, sure, but too green. Too erratic on the field and off. This is all on the record.

Through six games, Showers has yet to attempt a meaningful pass and the myth of Manziel -– also known as "Johnny Football," a born natural -– is already taking root. How could it not? The Aggies have been outrageously good on offense, most notably in the process of nuking Arkansas for 716 yards on more than nine yards per play on Sept. 29, in the game that saw Manziel set a new SEC record for total offense in just his second SEC start. Last week, they dropped 678 yards and 59 points on Louisiana Tech, and Manziel broke his own record. In between, they rallied from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Ole Miss on a pair of late touchdowns. Manziel is the most productive all-purpose quarterback in the conference, his top five receivers average nearly 15 yards per catch with a dozen touchdowns and the offensive line is anchored by a pair of future first-rounders on either end.

None of which is necessarily relevant Saturday against LSU. The only defense Manziel has seen that remotely resembles the Tigers -- athletically or on paper -- is Florida's, which took a couple quarters to figure the Aggies out in the opener but shut them down completely in the second half once it did, allowing the Gators offense to rally out of the halftime hole for the win. As prolific as A&M has been offensively, the Tigers have been equally stingy, setting up shop right behind Alabama (again) in the national rankings for total defense.

Historically, this is the time of year that surprise "September Heisman" types -– see also: Jacory Harris in 2009, Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez in 2010 –- tend to run head-first into reality, and it doesn't get much realer than LSU's defense. If Manziel is more than that, we're all about to find out.

No. 6 LSU (-3.5) at No. 18 Texas A&M (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This time last year, LSU was cruising toward an apocalyptic, winner-take-all collision with Alabama, ranked No. 1 with seven consecutive victories by an average margin of nearly four touchdowns. Through seven games this year, the 2012 Tigers are actually generating more yards per game (395.7) and allowing fewer (219.6) than their 2011 counterparts, but they also seem to have hit a wall. In three SEC games, the offense has twice as many turnovers (six) as touchdowns (three), and failed to crack the end zone at all in a sobering loss at Florida. (For the season, the current outfit has already turned the ball over a dozen times, four more giveaways than the 2011 edition committed in the entire regular season.) After back-to-back, top-ten slugfests with the Gators and South Carolina -– and with Alabama only a bye week away –- the Tigers aren't looking for any style points. Saturday is only about getting out of College Station in one piece, with SEC and BCS championship goals intact.

No. 20 Stanford (-2.5) at California (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Fox)

The "Big Game" comes much earlier than usual this year, just as Cal –- a loser in four of its first five –- seems to have found their footing in wins over UCLA and Washington State. Stanford, on the other hand, is flirting with serious disappointment: since upsetting USC on Sept. 15, the Cardinal have dropped two of their last three to Washington and Notre Dame, respectively, and barely escaped an overtime shootout with Arizona in between. Given the opportunity in front of them after knocking off the Trojans, there's not much solace in their standing as the best two-loss team in the nation.

Sans Andrew Luck, most of the attention at Stanford these days goes to their workhorse tailback, Stepfan Taylor, and the huge, athletic tight ends, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo, whose versatility allows the offense to line up in pretty much anything from old-school power sets to four-wide spread formations without changing personnel. The Cardinal's real strength, though, is the front seven on defense, which is also manned by a handful of future draft picks and ranks among the top ten nationally in rushing defense and tackles for loss. They've also recorded 14 sacks in the last four games, which is pretty much the last thing a quarterback who's been hit as often as Cal's Zach Maynard has this season wants to hear.

BYU (+13.5) at No. 5 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Before last week, the Cougars' trip to South Bend was shaping up as a race to the first safety. Between them, neither Notre Dame nor BYU had allowed an offensive touchdown since September 15, a remarkable streak spanning 25 consecutive quarters over nearly a month. For the Fighting Irish, the streak survives intact, albeit by the narrowest possible margin following last week's controversial goal-line stand to beat Stanford in overtime. For BYU, on the other hand, the facade came tumbling down all at once in a 42-24 rout at the hands of Oregon State, whose backup quarterback, Cody Vaz, lit the Cougars up for 332 yards and three touchdown passes in his first career start.

Redshirt freshman Everett Golson isn't going to do that kind of damage as a passer, and Notre Dame isn't going to ask him to. Assuming there's no hidden dimension to BYU's middling offense the Cougars have been waiting eight weeks to unleash, just keeping the defense out of unnecessary trouble should be more than enough to get the Irish to 7-0.

Nebraska (-6.5) at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The last time we saw Nebraska, the Cornhuskers were being ripped for 498 yards (371 rushing) and 63 points in a wipeout loss at Ohio State. On their only other road trip this season, the Huskers were gashed for 653 yards (344 rushing) in a 36-30 loss at UCLA. On their last road trip of 2011, they were gashed for 518 yards (238 rushing) in a 45-17 loss at Michigan. On the road, against competent, versatile offenses fueled by athletic quarterbacks, Nebraska's defense has been routinely reduced to mincemeat.

Northwestern doesn't strike as much fear in anyone's heart as the Buckeyes, Bruins or Wolverines -- at least athletically speaking -- but the Wildcats are 6-1 on the strength of a competent, versatile offense fueled by arguably the most versatile quarterback in the country, Kain Colter. Colter will line up anywhere -- quarterback, tailback, receiver -- on any given play. Between them, Colter and tailback Venric Mark are averaging more than 200 yards per game from scrimmage, better than any other rushing/receiving combo in the Big Ten, and Mark can flip the field in a flash as the league's most dangerous punt returner. At the very least, an upset in Evanston won't be nearly as shocking as last year's ambush in Lincoln, which eventually kept the Cornhuskers out of the Big Ten Championship Game.

No. 17 Texas Tech (-1.5) at No. 23 TCU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

The line on this game has been volatile, opening in TCU's favor before shifting a full five points in the direction of Texas Tech, suggesting many more gamblers caught the Red Raiders' resounding 49-14 upset over West Virginia than caught TCU's equally resounding 49-21 upset at Baylor. Both wins served as unexpected affirmations on the heels of disappointing losses on October 6. Yes, Texas Tech's defense may actually be as good as the numbers suggest, after all, and yes, TCU can survive a Big 12 shootout in the absence of starting quarterback Casey Pachall. At precisely the point that their seasons could have begun to careen out of control, the Raiders and Frogs were both at their best.

The bigger challenge this week is for Texas Tech to take that show on the road, where historically the Raiders have not been nearly the threat they are in Lubbock. On the same note, TCU has been stellar in Fort Worth, where its record stands at 40-4 since 2005. Either way, the winner gets to hold on to pretensions of a serious Big 12 title run for at least another week.

Michigan Stat