Category Archives: epistemology

Even More Things that Are Not Arguments

Posted on 2014-10-04 by TJ

Canada is sending about 600 members of the RCAF and a dozen aircraft of various types to support Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their war with ISIS. Here are some things that are not arguments: 1) “ISIS are EVIL! They … Continue reading →

Posted in epistemology, ethics, history, politics, probability, psychology, war | 1 Comment

How Bad is the Porn Industry?

Posted on 2014-10-01 by TJ

Some quotes (a few words have been changed or omitted to hide identities): I am overwhelmed with sadness, panic, fear, despair. I know I want to quit, but at this point it’s been 9 years. I am so sick of … Continue reading →

Posted in epistemology, politics, psychology, science | Leave a comment

Where is the Warming? Part 2: Vancouver Again

Posted on 2014-06-25 by TJ

Science is more of an art than a science. I did a number of obviously stupid things in my previous quick look at Vancouver temperature data. Fortunately, this blog doesn’t have any readers so I get to catch my own … Continue reading →

Posted in epistemology, physics, science, thermodynamics | Leave a comment

Something for Everyone

Posted on 2014-05-14 by TJ

So I’ve published a book (that’s a link to the CreateSpace store… Amazon links are down below.) Darwin’s Theorem is a story about stories (the working title for a long time was “Metastory”) that’s also a mystery, a romance, an … Continue reading →

Posted in epistemology, ethics, evolution, god, politics, religion, science, war, writing | Leave a comment

Explanation vs Prediction

Posted on 2014-05-05 by TJ

The name of my consulting company is Predictive Patterns Software Inc, and as the name suggests, a lot of my work has been writing algorithms (software) that finds patterns in data that are predictive of outcomes. I’ve worked mostly in … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, economics, epistemology, history, life, politics, prediction, probability, psychology, war | Leave a comment

The Bonferroni Correction

Posted on 2014-04-03 by TJ

Despite sounding a bit like the title of a Robert Ludlum novel, the Bonferroni Correction is a somewhat controversial fix for a common issue in statistical analysis. The issue itself is nicely illustrated by this particular bit of wisdom: June … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, probability, psychology | Leave a comment

Reflections

Posted on 2014-03-21 by TJ

It’s been a busy couple of months. The first part of this was written a few weeks ago and a whole lot has already changed, mostly for the good. I’ve sold my boat, and therefore have experienced the other of … Continue reading →

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Why Speculation About MH370 is Evidence of Innumeracy

Posted on 2014-03-17 by TJ

Modern air travel is ridiculously safe. Aircraft are not designed using prayer, or crystals, or chi, or any other pre-scientific or anti-scientific “way of knowing” that is demonstrably far less effective than publicly testing ideas by some combination of systematic … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, probability, psychology, religion | 8 Comments

Market Predictions

Posted on 2014-02-27 by TJ

You may have seen that “scary chart” that some idiot is promoting as the presaging the possible end of the world. It’s so spectacularly stupid I figured I’d do a few minutes of actual analysis of the “argument” and how … Continue reading →

Posted in economics, epistemology, history, prediction, probability, psychology, religion, science, software | Leave a comment

What is Faith?

Posted on 2014-02-07 by TJ

I’m a Bayesian, and I think you should be a Bayesian too. Bayesianism fundamentally changes our view of what we are doing as scientists and human beings. Back in the dark ages (say, about 1990) scientists still had a tendency … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, probability, religion, science | 1 Comment