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In its latest Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raises its forecast for global consumption of oil to 90.8 mb/d in 2013, 240 kb/d more than in last monthโs report and 930 kb/d (1.0%) up on 2012. A raised 4Q12 demand estimate and heightened expectations for China are the main contributors to the hike.
Global crude oil supplies fell by 170 kb/d in December, to 91.2 mb/d. Non-OPEC production rebounded by 90 kb/d from the prior month, to 54.2 mb/d and is expected to increase by 590 kb/d in 1Q13 y-o-y. For 2013, non-OPEC production is projected to rise by 980 kb/d to 54.3 mb/d, the highest growth rate since 2010.
OPEC crude supply in December fell to its lowest level in a year at 30.65 mb/d on lower output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Average OPEC crude output reached an historic high in 2012 in the wake of continued global demand growth. The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2013 was raised by 100 kb/d, to 30 mb/d.
OECD industry inventories drew by 18.7 mb in November, led by a further drop of 11 mb in middle distillate stocks, extending earlier declines. On a forward demand basis, total products cover fell by 0.5 days to 30 days in November. December preliminary data point to a further 18.4 mb decline in OECD industry inventories.
Global refinery runs rose 1.5 mb/d y-o-y to around 75.9 mb/d in 4Q12, with growth in refining activity concentrated in China, India and Russia. Favorable refining margins, a gradual reduction in offline capacity and a cold snap in Asia and the FSU supported refinery throughputs in the last months of 2012.
January 18, 2013 in Brief | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
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B4...that would be true in a pure 'supply and demand' world but we are very far from that with lobbies, speculators, price fixing, OPEC etc etc. Oil prices are fixed by a few people NOT by demand and certainly NOT by supply.
Supply and demand does not change overnight but we pay about $0.40/gal more on weekends than on week days. That is called price fixing???
Posted by: HarveyD | January 18, 2013 at 01:34 PM
Speak for yourself bro.
Posted by: ToppaTom | January 18, 2013 at 09:58 PM
At almost 91 million barrels per day, the world can expect more air pollution, climate changes and extreme weather?
Posted by: HarveyD | January 19, 2013 at 08:19 AM
@HD,
YES!
Posted by: Roger Pham | January 23, 2013 at 01:29 AM
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When demand goes up, the price goes up and it slows down the economy and so people start using less and then the price goes down again. Then people start using more and the price goes up and the economy slows down and so people start using less and then the price goes down. Then people start using more and the price goes up and the economy slows down and people start using less and so the price goes down. Then people start using more and the price goes up and the economy slows down and so people start using less and the price goes down. Repeat that infinitely because humans are morons.
Posted by: Brotherkenny4 | January 18, 2013 at 12:17 PM