Adam Lind’s Value
By Jonathan Judge on November 5, 2014
So the Brewers found their first-baseman, trading with the Toronto Blue Jays for left-hander Adam Lind in exchange for Marco Estrada. Reaction to the move has been almost uniformly positive, and justifiably so.
Over the last few weeks, we talked about the Brewers’ on-base problem last year, and found that it was driven by one general problem: their hitters’ refusal or inability to work counts and take walks.
Adam Lind doesn’t have that problem. He walked at a 9% last year, and Steamer projects him to walk at a 9% rate again next year. That’s solidly above league-average.
But Lind’s walk rate wasn’t why the Brewers traded for him. First base was actually one position where the Brewers had no problem drawing walks last year: Mark Reynolds drew them at an 11% rate and Lyle Overbay at a 12% rate. Their problem was that Reynolds and Overbay couldn’t consistently do anything else. Brewers first-basemen had a .287 OBP last year, the same as the shortstop position. In other words, they were abysmal.
OBP, as we discussed recently, is driven not only by walks, but also by hitting for power and batting average in balls on play (BABIP). Lind offers both of these two later attributes, and that was what the Brewers were shopping for. Last year, Lind’s BABIP was .369 and he slugged .479. Both numbers may drop a bit, but even assuming regression, Steamer projects Lind to have a .338 OBP with a .451 slug and a net .346 wOBA. Those numbers are excellent and much closer to the production one sees from the Pirates, whom the Brewers need to emulate at the plate.
The flip-side of Lind, as plenty of you have noted, is that he requires a platoon partner. Virtually all left-handed hitters struggle to hit left-handed pitching these days, but Lind is a prototypical extreme case. For his career, he has a 128 wRC+ against righties, and a 53 wRC+ against lefties. His true talent against lefties is probably better than that, as he’s only had about 900 PAs against them, but a little positive regression is not going to put much lipstick on that pig. Lind has many strengths, but this is one glaring weakness.
Fortunately, Doug Melvin gave this some thought, found that the NL Central is a right-handed heavy division as far as pitching goes, and that the Brewers would only see about 150 PAs or so against left-handed starters next year. Given Lind’s injury history, Melvin seemed to view these 150 PAs as an opportunity to give Lind some rest and help reduce his risk of re-injury.
The question then becomes who will take those 150 PAs. After all, if Lind’s platoon partner gives back much of the value Lind provides against righties, then Lind is not that valuable of an acquisition. Many have suggested that Jonathan Lucroy could be moved over from catcher to take those PAs, which would help keep Lucroy fresh while also keeping his bat in the lineup. That’s not a bad idea, but that effectively makes Martin Maldonado Lind’s platoon partner. Maldonado’s projected 2015 OBP per Steamer is .286, and despite being a right-handed batter, Maldonado has shown no special ability to hit lefties so far. That makes Maldonado, and by extension Lucroy, a subpar option to take Lind’s plate appearances. Admittedly, Maldonado is going to play regardless once a week, and the production of a backup catcher, particularly a superior defensive one like Maldonado, pretty much is what it is.
But if the Brewers think he is ready, and their budget doesn’t support adding a corner infielder, then Jason Rogers makes more sense. Rogers has consistently shown power, quality contact, and patience against lefty pitchers in the minor leagues, and hitting primarily against lefties would be the smartest way to ease him in to major league hitting. Rogers admittedly scuffled a bit at Nashville last year, and he probably could use some more time there. Steamer also does not have high hopes for him overall in 2015: they forecast a .308 OBP and a .390 slugging percentage. At the same time, they see him walking at a league-average rate, and if he can do that and hit the mistakes, then the weak side of the platoon may be in reasonable hands.
So, in an offseason where we felt the Brewers had no choice but to pay Adam LaRoche, the team instead managed to trade a pitcher on the outs (Marco Estrada) for a lefty slugger with tremendous upside. For all his perceived old-school tendencies, Doug Melvin excels at the one quality you can’t scout or calculate, and that is the ability to sniff out and make good deals. With Adam Lind, he seems to have done so again.
Follow Jonathan on Twitter @bachlaw.
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What about having Ramirez as the right side of the platoon and Jimenez as 3B for those starts. That would effectively make Jimenez the other side, but would give more defensive flexibility than Rogers. Not sure if Jimenez is ready, but I like this idea assuming he is.
I don’t think Ramirez will play 1B at this point in his career, if he hasn’t already.
Jimenez has played 1B, so he is even more likely than Ramirez to be a platoon partner.
I assume we are figuring that its Jiminez or Rogers, but not both. Since Rogers has options and Jiminez doesn’t, it might be safe to assume Jiminez, if he doesn’t end up getting waived.
or Jimenez, I suppose.
[…] how often he’ll be able to play, however, given his heavy platoon splits and injury history. Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker has an effort to pin down his […]
“for a lefty slugger with tremendous upside”
If you meant tremendous upgrade over the nobodies they had on the roster at that point then I’ll agree, but Lind is 31 with a career 6.6 fWAR so I wouldn’t say he has tremendous upside.