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Peter Gammons: Cherington, Red Sox Faced With Long Winter Ahead

November 9, 2014 by Peter Gammons 23 Comments

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Ben Cherington left Sunday for Phoenix because it is his turn to chair the General Manager Meetings. He was able to enjoy his final day before the trip seeing Amherst beat Williams and spending the day with fellow Lord Jeffs, Dan Duquette and Neal Huntington, and when the meetings begin Monday, he can begin to figure out what pieces fit where—and for how much—after six weeks looking back at the worst-to-first-to-worst ride and trying to approach the winter Season of the Which(?).

This is a critical winter for Cherington. On the one hand, he sees this period as an opportunity, with a farm system he had a huge hand in developing with Theo Epstein seemingly ready to begin to fill a number of holes, and in a division where some teams, like Toronto and Tampa Bay, have a narrow window, and as much as they were a dominant team, the Orioles face several difficult contractual situations.

On the other hand, while one owner, Tom Werner, has suggested they have oodles of money, and another, Larry Lucchino, this week said they will not stand for another losing season, there is clear pressure to restore the team to contending status, which means keeping luxury boxes filled, NESN ratings competitive and the GNP of Red Sox Nation competitive with that of the nation of Chad. Both Werner and Lucchino were simply being optimists, but words take on meaning far beyond their intent in a major media market.

First, that demands that this organization that is built around an inner circle heavily experienced in player development, make the right decisions on which young players are ready to contribute in 2015, which young players must be held onto for the bigger picture of the five year window, which young pitchers can be starters, which might become their answers to the Kansas City Troika and, most important, which young players are chips to find what they need to sell the $15 lobster rolls.

It’s not as if Cherington started doodling all this on a notepad on the flight to Phoenix. He is an exceptionally thoughtful, reasoned man, and while he may have lost two important evaluators to the Dodgers and a rising star to the Marlins, his inner circle with Mike Hazen, Allard Baird, Ben Crockett, et al, is really smart and detailed; in fact, the best news since the Derek Jeter end to the season is that Hazen didn’t get one of the general manager openings.

He acknowledges the Red Sox have to begin their plans acquiring two starting pitchers and what he calls “an impact left-handed bat.” They have one starting pitcher who won as many as eight games for them in 2014, Clay Buchholz, eight wins, 5.34 ERA. The next biggest returning winner? Allen Webster, five wins, 5.63 ERA. Joe Kelly, Ruby De La Rosa and Anthony Ranaudo each won four games as starters.

Watching lineups salute opposing right-handers throwing anything that wiggled the last two months was painful, especially in a home park built for left-handed hitters. Other than David Ortiz, their leading left-handed home run hitter against right-handed pitching came down to a tie between Stephen Drew and Daniel Nava, four apiece. Granted, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli were hurt much of the year and everyone in the organization held themselves accountable for underestimating the widening jump between Triple-A and the majors (between the increased strike zone, shifts, +++ power bullpens and diminished minor league at-bats), hence some of the disappointment in the performances of players like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, whose elite defensive season was clouded by his .180/.245/.228 slash with 80 strikeouts in 250 at-bats. When the Boston Red Sox are 11th in runs, 12th in homers and 14th in slugging, you start waking up in the night hearing a voice saying, “Gary Geiger isn’t coming through that door.”

This we know: Cherington isn’t trading Mookie Betts, and Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz and Christian Vazquez are going to be in there every day with Betts and Pedroia at the top of the lineup. Bogaerts is working out in Arizona at API with Pedroia, and will be the everyday shortstop, especially after he bounced back from two months of struggles to hit .313 with four homers and an .806 OPS in 24 games in September.

But here’s a hypothetical quandary: Thursday night at an Arizona Fall League game, one highly-respected veteran scout offered the opinion that Deven Marrero, who is hitting .320/,443/.420 in that league, is the best defensive shortstop in the American League and that, in his opinion, Marrero is a better player than the Indians’ phenom Francisco Lindor. That set off an interesting debate, split, since several scouts believe, like Mike Roberts, than Marrero is going to hit. The who’s better debate is for five years from now. The question, asked a Red Sox official, was, “what happens if Marrero hits this spring and really is Brandon Crawford II?”

Or will his performance in Arizona make Marrero a chip to a team seeking a shortstop like Philadelphia (as part of a Cole Hamels package), Oakland (as a part for Jeff Samardzija or Sean Doolittle), or, less likely, the Mets?

“We’ll worry about that if and when it comes time to think about it,” said the official. “There’s nothing wrong with Xander being pushed.” Javier Guerra is only 19 and probably headed to Greenville next season, but he is one of their most prized future prospects, so if Marrero were traded, Bogaerts would have to be a three or four year commitment at shortstop.

Before one starts worrying about the whole Bogaerts to third base issue, realize there may be five months to two years before they worry. In the meanwhile, Cherington, Hazen and company will see Pablo Sandoval’s agent in Phoenix and see how viable pursuing The Panda may be. During the World Series, Giants officials all stated concerns about a five year deal for Sandoval in the National League. “The Red Sox can bat him third, play him at third and then let him DH with Bogaerts or Garin Cecchini playing third.” Sandoval has great, lithe feet, a big arm helped by his ability to get in position to throw, and his defensive analytics put him in the top third of defensive third basemen in 2014. Chase Headley gets mentioned, but he’s had three or four good months in his career, hit as many as 14 homers once, is three years older than Sandoval and has a medical back history that Cherington is well aware of, since two of Headley’s GMs in San Diego were former Red Sox front office allies.

Or they could trade Napoli, get a left-handed bat at first (Adam LaRoche?) and go find another third baseman. Hanley Ramirez has made it clear he will play third, left or right, he has always deferred to Ortiz, Cherington has known him since Hanley was 16…but has also had a medical history.

How the outfield fits…Betts is going to play somewhere. Rusney Castillo is likely to play. Yoenis Cespedes? He is a major favorite of Chili Davis; days after the trade, hitting coach Victor Rodriguez got a call from Chili extolling Cespedes and his potential. Daniel Nava has been a solid player. Davis also could find a willing pupil in Bryce Brentz, who has rare tape measure power, kills left-handed pitching and could, healthy, be a Mike Morse-type player.

What they do not know is if Shane Victorino, who makes teams win, will be healthy. Or exactly where Allen Craig is at this point in his career. Or what to make of Bradley. Or what Alex Hassan would do if given a role job in the major leagues, given his minor league plate discipline track record.

John Farrell, Victor Rodriguez, Yadier Molina and Alex Cora are convinced that Vazquez will hit, because of his great feet, balance and September improvement (.277/.351/.736), not to mention Lucroyesque defense. “You can do a lot of things with him that you can’t with most catchers,” says Farrell. “Go back and see me when I broke in,” says Molina.

But all that is moot if the starting pitching isn’t addressed. Take all the pitchers on their current roster and their combined won-loss record as starters for the Red Sox was 27-37. Now, when Cherington made his comment about not needing an “ace,” he was saying that there are many ways to get to the whole team that can make it through October. Jon Lester is an ace; he went down in the play-in game. Clayton Kershaw is a once-in-a-lifetime ace; the Dodgers lost both his starts. The Tigers lost playoff games started by Max Scherzer and David Price.

But that is deceiving. The front-of-the-rotation guy is more important in today’s post-season setup than ever before, because of the days off. Madison Bumgarner started seven of the Giants 17 post-season games. He threw nearly 32.9 percent of their 160 innings, which over a 162 games would be a 501 inning workload. So while many—especially the Cardinals development folks—see Joe Kelly’s ceiling as a 2-3 and the Red Sox still believe that Buchholz will come back, especially with Vazquez—they need two 180-220 innings starters.

They can take Hamels salary. Now, if Pat Gillick has a major say in trades, then Manuel Margot is a prototypical Gillick player. 19. Tools galore (115 games, 42 extra base hits, 42 steals, Devon White effortless defense in center field). Five teams that scouted the Florida west coast in the Instructional League all had Margot in as the best prospect they saw this September. Then they’d have to go from there.

They can probably sign James Shields, if at 34 he’d take the higher AAV and three years. The adjustments he made before his Game Five start—the turn, the curveball rather than cutter and the angle on his split—impressed teams, and according to Brooks Baseball his velocity was up all season from 2013. Lester and Scherzer? Probably not for them, although while Scherzer is 30, the fact remains that in his career he has thrown 28 fewer innings than Kershaw, only 160 more than Bumgarner, factoring in post and regular seasons. Francisco Liriano is a thought, Cincinnati (Mike Leake?), San Diego (Tyson Ross?) and Oakland are possibilities. There are some thoughts that Detroit might trade Price, a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, and re-sign Scherzer; although if Price is available, the Cubs might be first in line.

They have extensively scouted Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda, and will again be there when he starts against the US All-Stars this week. As of now, they do not see him as more than a backend starter. But that could change.

One of the starting spots will go to one of their own, with De La Rosa, Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo out front. By June, there will be Brian Johnson (their most advanced prospect, whose quick tempo, command, and mix including his six different curveballs could make him a much better pitcher than the gurus realize), Henry Owens and Eduardo Rodriguez on the will-call list.

Then in the spring Farrell and Juan Nieves will try to figure out who could be a Wade Davis type of reliever. They’d love to have Andrew Miller back, and Luke Hochevar, one of the best anywhere in 2013 before Tommy John Surgery, is a free agent. Barnes intrigues many as a potential elite 7th-8th inning guy. Brandon Workman’s stuff has skewed up out of the pen. There is thought that if Webster can do a one-pitch-at-a-time focus like Carlos Carrasco did in his remarkable transition with the Indians, that his stuff is so good he could play like a Herrera or Davis or eventually start.

The Royals and Orioles showed how those elite 3-6 out power relievers used at the most important leverage points of games (remember how Bruce Bochy used Jeremy Affeldt in every inning in the series from the second through the 10th, or how Buck Showalter saved Miller for the biggest moments with Cabrera and Martinez?) are actually more important roles than closers who come into clean ninth innings. There, strikeouts and power are less important than throwing strikes. Think about this: only 28% of one inning save situations in 2014 were to protect one run leads, which means solo home runs do not tie or cost 72% of save situations.

The success or failure of the 2015 is going to entail much more than free agent signings and off-season deals. Most important is their evaluation and development of their own young players, as well as Rusney Castillo, and, come September, what Betts, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Johnson, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes and others turn out to be. The fact that Cherington, Hazen, Farrell and Crockett have all been farm directors speaks volumes about where the heart of this organization lies.

Filed Under: Gammons Files Tagged With: anthony ranaudo, Ben Cherington, Jackie Bradley, Joe Kelly, john farrell, matt barnes, mlb, mookie betts, pablo sandoval, Pitching, prospects, red sox, theo epstein, trades, Xander Bogaerts

Comments

  1. spacer Gland1 says:
    November 9, 2014 at 9:12 pm

    $15 is a good deal for a lobster roll

    Reply
    • spacer Career High says:
      November 10, 2014 at 12:32 am

      I’ll pay that much for a nice packed lobster roll with some drawn butter. You ruin it with mayo that detracts from the lobster flavor then absolutely not.

      Reply
      • spacer Flash Gordon says:
        November 10, 2014 at 9:33 am

        Mayonnaise is one foul concoction.

        Reply
    • spacer Flash Gordon says:
      November 10, 2014 at 9:32 am

      I’ll buy a few if they find 1 and 2 starters and put a winning roster together. And I trade organic free range eggs for some awesome hard shells every Wedenesday.

      Reply
  2. spacer KauaiCoffee says:
    November 9, 2014 at 9:19 pm

    Is everybody so convinced that Mookie Betts “does’t have the arm for 3B” that they are writing him off completely as an option at third? He seems to be an excellent athlete with quick reactions and soft hands, so he should be able to catch the ball. Is his throwing arm SO weak that he isn’t worth a shot? Is throwing not a teachable skill? Betts is not going to take Pedroia’s starting position, and he is not going to push the $70 million Rusney Castillo to the bench. So Betts has no starting role unless they try him at 3B or SS. What am I missing?

    Reply
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