FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Each week here on Fantasy Football Today, I’ll bring you a few guys at each position whose stocks are rising and falling based on recent performance compared to their previously perceived value.

Week 1

We’re basically weighing one game against preseason theories and 2013 statistics. Since it’s only one week, we shouldn’t entirely dismiss (good) preseason theories, but we also can’t ignore what actually happened on the field.

Quarterback

Rising

Matt Ryan grabbed everyone’s attention with 448 yds and 3 TDs, leading all Wk 1 QBs.

Matt Ryan, ATL
This weekend showed just how strong the Falcons pass offense can be with Julio Jones and Roddy White each on the field and healthy. Ryan attempted only one more pass than his counterpart Drew Brees, yet threw for 115 more yards. The Saints were supposed to be the team with a much-improved pass defense. Ryan’s week one puts him into “start no matter what” territory until further notice.

Jake Locker, TEN
Locker completed 67 percent of his passes to eight different Titans receivers against a Chiefs team that was a relatively heavy favorite at home this week. If Locker can continue to spread the ball around like he did this week, he could turn into a very strong streamer and/or bye week fill-in in 2014.

EJ Manuel, BUF
He isn’t a priority yet, but it’s time to at least put him on your radars. After a bad preseason, Manuel was being written off as an NFL quarterback, much less a fantasy quarterback. Against the Bears he showed good decision-making ability. If he continues that and runs it a few times a game, he could go from the ranks of left for dead to actually serviceable if called upon in fantasy.

Falling

Tony Romo, DAL
Something clearly was not right with the Cowboys passing game against San Francisco. Romo and his receivers seemed to be on a different page throughout the entire game. There are any number of contributing factors to Romo’s wretched performance: San Francisco’s defense, Romo’s lack of preseason playing time, or perhaps Romo’s back is still a major issue. Whatever it is, I’d be nervous right now in any league where I’m depending on Romo.

Robert Griffin III, WAS
RGIII strength as a fantasy quarterback ended after his rookie year, when he tucked it and ran . In Week 1 against the Texans, Griffin had three carries for two yards. If this trend continues, Griffin might have to be considered a streamer, not a weekly must-start.

Tom Brady, NE
I’m sure you saw the stats in the preseason that said Brady is an amazing fantasy quarterback when Rob Gronkowski is playing. Well, Gronk played in Week 1 and led the team in targets, so why did Brady complete barely over 50 percent of his passes? He is still Tom Brady, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the situation calls for it.

Running Back

Rising

Knowshon Moreno, MIA
Remember that time when Lamar Miller was going to be the man in Miami? Me neither. Once he was given a chance, Moreno seemed to run away with the Dolphins starting running back job. The Dolphins could still give Miller some run, but Moreno’s performance was too impressive to ignore by Dolphins coaches and by fantasy owners.

Terrance West, CLE
Early in the summer, many in the fantasy world thought that West could outright take the job from Ben Tate. Late in the summer, it became clear that Tate was going to be the lead guy with the Browns after clearly outplaying West. Then, in Week 1, Tate left the game and West entered. Six carries and 100 yards later, West looks like he can be a solid fantasy contributor if Tate misses an extended period of time. Teammate Isaiah Crowell is also rising after scoring two touchdowns, but West looks like he would be the one who leads the a Tate-less Browns in carries.

Chris Ivory, NYJ
The box score looks great: 102 yards and a touchdown. That’s not the full story, as 71 of those yards came on one long run. The important thing to look at though is the carries: 10. If Ivory can get around 10 carries per game switching off with Chris Johnson, he could bring back some decent fantasy value. I wouldn’t call him a weekly starter, but someone who could be considered a viable start when the Jets are matched up with a poor run defense.

Falling

Bernard Pierce, BAL
You’d think with the Ray Rice news, Pierce would be well on his way up. A 2.3-yard per carry performance before getting yanked due to a fumble has to make us question Pierce’s stranglehold on the job in Baltimore with Rice gone. I think he’s still the most likely guy to be the Ravens starter, but it’s not as set in stone as we might have thought a few days ago.

Toby Gerhart, JAC
Gerhart owners got exactly what they hoped for when they took him: a majority of the carries –- 18, despite missing some game time with an injury. The problem is what he did with them. I’m not sure if it’s him or the Jaguars offense – both backup running backs also averaged under three yards per carry – but that Week 1 performance has me concerned. I’d stick with him because of the workload, but with lower expectations.

Doug Martin, TB
Martin’s Week 1 could be chalked up to facing the Panthers defense, but even against the staunchest of opponents, a supposedly elite running back should average more than one yard on his carries. With the awful week one and now a leg injury to keep an eye on, Martin owners seem like they might be facing another season like 2013.

Wide Receiver

Rising

Allen Hurns, JAC
Whenever a wide receiver comes out of nowhere to put up a big game in Week 1, people will almost always react the same: “Is he the next Kevin Ogletree?” Sure, it’s possible Hurns will be a one-week wonder, and he will continue to be in the Jaguars offense, so I wouldn’t go too crazy acquiring him. But four catches for 110 yards is nothing to sneeze at, and someone does need to emerge as Chad Henne’s top receiver (in theory). I wouldn’t mind using an excess roster spot on him to see if he can keep it going.

Markus Wheaton, PIT
With the departures of Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, someone needed to fill those voids. Wheaton was the obvious choice, but we still had to see him perform first. And perform he did. Wheaton tied Le’Veon Bell for the team lead in Week 1 targets with seven, hauling in six passes for 97 yards. Antonio Brown is still the man in Pittsburgh, but there are plenty of Ben Roethlisberger passes to go around to keep Wheaton on the WR3/Flex radar.

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR and Brandin Cooks, NO
I’m lumping these two together. There was a lot to like about these two heading into the season, but both came with one huge caution flag: They’re rookies. Rookie wide receivers generally take time to adjust to the NFL. After seeing these two each produce in Week 1 though, it appears safe to say that we can look past their rookie status.

Falling

Vincent Jackson, TB
Jackson tied for the team lead in targets (nine9 but could only catch four of them for 36 yards. It’s a good sign that he is getting the targets, but the Josh McCown-led offense might hold him back from his true potential as a WR1. Like with Doug Martin, this performance could potentially be brushed off as a rough matchup, but there might be more to worry about here than just the Panthers being tough.

Torrey Smith, BAL
There was some chatter coming into the season that Smith might finally reach WR1 status. At the very least, he’s expected to come in as a solid WR2, based on where he was going in drafts (late fifth round). After a Week 1 where we saw two different Baltimore receivers more than double Smith’s target total, I’m thinking we may have the same old Torrey Smith. He’ll have his big weeks, but the fourth-year wide receiver still isn’t an absolute must start.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
If you watched the late Monday Night game, you saw ESPN reference it over and over again: Palmer was spreading the ball around to everyone but Fitzgerald. I get that big time receivers will have their down games, but this was down to the point of major worry. Fitzgerald ended the game with only one catch on four targets. It’s great for the Cardinals if they are able to spread the ball around as much as they did against San Diego, but bad for Fitzgerald if they are spreading it and he’s not first in line.

Tight End

Rising

Dennis Pitta, BAL
Pitta and teammate Steve Smith Sr. tied for the league lead with 15 in Week 1 targets. I don’t think Smith will remain among the league leaders in targets, but I wouldn’t entirely rule it out for Pitta. I don’t think he’s the playmaker to ascend to the status of the elites (Graham, Gronkowski, Thomas), but he could be a reception machine that gives his owners a healthy score from week to week at the tight end position.

Martellus Bennett, CHI
Being a Bills fan, I watched every single play of the Buffalo-Chicago game on Sunday. At times, it seemed like Cutler was clearly looking for Bennett ahead of the two big name wide receivers. Brandon Marshall did end up leading the team in targets with 12, but Bennett came in a close second with 10. Sure, Alshon Jeffery did leave midway through the game, but Bennett was getting the looks while Jeffery was on the field. His upside is limited with Marshall, Jeffery and Forte around, but Bennett should be able to maintain low-end TE1 status throughout the year.

Larry Donnell, NYG
With all the excitement over high upside tight ends (think Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce and Ladarius Green), Donnell flew completely under the radar. After leading the Giants in Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards, Donnell won’t be under the radar any longer. When the Giants got deep in Lions territory, it was clearly Donnell that Eli Manning was looking for. With his wide availability, Donnell should make for a nice injury or bye week fill-in for fantasy owners this season.

Falling

Jason Witten, DAL
The Cowboys passing game was an all-around disaster in Week 1, so it’s tough to tell for sure if Witten’s bad week was his fault or Tony Romo’s. He did tie Dez Bryant for second-most targets on the team (six), but Witten only ended up with two catches for 14 yards. Until the Cowboys show they are a competent team or Witten shows he’s still the same guy he’s always been, Witten might be off the list of “must start” tight ends.

Charles Clay, MIA
Clay was an interesting guy in drafts this summer. He hovered in the weird zone between clear-cut starters and high upside fliers. People who crave consistency loved making Clay a late-round target, though. One problem: Consistency suggests putting up solid scores weekly. In a game where the Miami Dolphins scored 33 points, Clay only wound up with two receptions. If Week 1 is a sign of things to come, the Dolphins are a running team that will look to Mike Wallace first when it’s time to throw. Clay will have useful weeks, but he’s also not a must-own, depending on your options.

Jordan Reed, WAS
When you draft a player that missed a lot of games last year and was dealing with an injury in the preseason this year, the last thing you want to see is that player leaving the first game of the year. Reed still has enough upside to wait through the current hamstring injury, but it’s also worrisome to depend on a guy that just can’t seem to stay on the field.

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Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 9/2/14

Final scheduled update of the year. Post roster cut to 53 players. A lot of movement at the bottom end of each position as teams fill out the back end of their rosters.

Quarterbacks

• Matt Schaub (-30) – Whether our not Schuab’s elbow had anything to do with it, the Raiders are already looking towards the future.
• Derek Carr (+25) – He gets the start Week 1 in Oakland and the Raiders hope he keeps the job for good.
• EJ Manuel (-8) – You don’t pay Kyle Orton $5 million to ride the bench. Manuel should be avoided in fantasy drafts.

Running Backs

• Ben Tate (+6) – The coaching staff thinks rookie Terrance West still needs some seasoning before he’s ready for a significant workload.
• Knowshon Moreno (+6) – I flip-flopped Moreno and Miller this week. I think it’s only a matter of time before Moreno proves to be the better all-around RB.
• Dan Herron / Isaiah Crowell / Latavius Murray – All No. 3 running backs got slight bumps. Sleeper material.

Wide Receivers

• Michael Floyd (-1) – Bumped his projections down just a bit as John Brown looks like he’s going to be a significant part of the offense.
• Miles Austin / Andrew Hawkins (+4) – They are your starting receivers in Cleveland, for what it’s worth.

Tight Ends

• Rob Gronkowski (+1) – Gronk claims he’s going to play Week 1 in some capacity. Look for him to be limited early in the season.

Kickers

• Cairo Santos (#15) – Beat out Succop in Kansas City.
• Ryan Succop (#28) – Signed by Tennessee.
• Brandon McManus (#25) – Will kick for Denver while Prater serves his suspension.
• Patrick Murray (#30) – Kicking for the Bucs.
• Cody Parkey (#17) – Beat out Henery in Philadelphia.
• The Saints apparently want to go for two every time.

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/28/14

Quarterbacks

• Shaun Hill (+5) – It appears the Rams are comfortable with Hill as their starter for the foreseeable future.
• Cam Newton (-1) – Getting bad vibes about this team the closer we get to the start of the season.

Running Backs

• Jamaal Charles (-2) – Speaking of bad vibes… I still love Charles but the injuries to the o-line, poor play by Eric Fisher and multiple injuries throughout the team have the Chiefs trending downward. Just a slight bump down for Jamaal.
• Doug Martin (+3) – Rookie Sims is out and addition of Mankins should help every so slightly.
• Reggie Bush / Joique Bell – A slight shift in distribution between the Detroit RBs.
• Pierre Thomas (-8) – Ingram and Robinson are ready to be the main runners on first and second down. Thomas stays as a receiving threat and is a better value in PPR leagues.

Wide Receivers

• Josh Gordon (dropped) – His appeal was lost. Gordon will miss the entire 2014 season.
• Brandin Cooks (+7) – Tacked on some yardage to Cook’s receiving totals.

Tight Ends

• Rob Gronkowski (+2) – Sure would be nice to see Gronk get some quality practice time in next week.
• Tim Wright (+23) – Wright improved his fantasy stock by landing in New England. He’s on the back-end of the TE2 radar until his usage in the offense becomes clear.

Kickers

• Chandler Catanzaro (#19) – Replaces Jay Feely (cut) in Arizona.

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/25/14

Unscheduled updated for WR Wes Welker (concussion) K Matt Prater (4-game suspension) and QB Sam Bradford (ACL).

Quarterbacks

• Sam Bradford (dropped) – Tough break for the Rams as they lose their signal-caller for the second-straight year.
• Shaun Hill (#28) – Hill be the Week 1 starter but isn’t even a QB2 at this point. He will be available on your waiver wire if he shows well during Weeks 1 and 2.

Wide Receivers

• Wes Welker (-20) – Welker has three concussions in 10 months. Even if he’s ready for Week 1, his injury risk pushes him below Sanders.
• Emmanuel Sanders (+14) – Sanders will have a bigger role inside and out if Welker misses any time.
• Danny Amendola (-10) – I still think Amendola is a decent value at his current ADP (10.09) but he’s not on the field in two-WR sets, limiting his opportunity.
• Allen Hurns (#101) – Inserted the UDFA receiver in Jacksonville.

Kickers

• Matt Prater (-20) – Four-game suspension makes Prater undraftable in re-draft leagues. There are plenty of kickers and no reason to carry two on your initial roster.

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/21/14

Note: No change to Le’Veon Bell or LeGarrette Blount until we get a better idea of the punishment they may or may not receive as a result of their dope arrest last night.

Quarterbacks

• Matthew Stafford (+1) – Added a passing TD to Stafford’s totals.
• Jay Cutler (+1) – I really like Cutler’s ceiling this season. Health will be the only thing that keeps him out of the top ten.
• Cam Newton (-2) – Personnel concerns are enough to kicked him down a Tier.

Running Backs

• Doug Martin (N/A) – No change as Sims’ injury reflects more on backups Rainey and James.
• DeMarco Murray (-2) – Been debating all season how heavy Murray’s use will be in this offense. Still like him a lot but decided to scale him back as I expect Dunbar’s role to more than just change-of-pace.
• Christine Michael (-7) – Robert Turbin has the trust of the coaching staff. If Lynch goes down, a committee approach will likely be used.
• Chris Polk (-10) – There is no handcuff for McCoy right now. Polk’s hamstring injury is such a concern the team acquired Kenjon Barner from Carolina.

Wide Receivers

• Jordy Nelson (+1) – Slight bump for the Packers’ receivers as it appears no true threat at tight end is going to emerge.
• Randall Cobb (+2) – See above.
• Jeremy Maclin (-4) – I love Maclin’s ceiling but his injury concerns are growing.
• Markus Wheaton (+8) – Ranked too low originally. The kid has upside value if he can hold onto the No.2 receiving spot.

Tight Ends

• Vernon Davis (-2) – The more I study, the more I like Crabtree to steal the show in 49ers passing game this season. Davis is TD-dependent and will be hard-pressed to notch double-digit scores this season.
• Antonio Gates (-2) – Adjusted the distribution between Gates and Green.

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The Manziel hype machine is out of control. He’ll be a fantasy QB2 at best.

QB Johnny Manziel
(2013 QB Rank—N/A)

As one of the most polarizing players in the NFL, Johnny Manziel provides a similarly tantalizing dilemma for fantasy owners. He has undeniable physical gifts, but does he have enough between the ears to win the starting job and run with it? A dynamo on the ground and in the air, Johnny Football dazzled the college ranks for two years at Texas A&M. He showed improved development as a pocket passer in his short collegiate career, but enters a pro system that will undoubtedly test his discipline and maturity.

A positive for Manziel is the presence of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan knows a little something about getting the most out of fleet-footed rookie quarterbacks. Expect Shanahan to employ Manziel on a bevy of rollouts and bootlegs to give him the throw/run option. No matter who is under center, the Browns will use a running-based offense, especially considering the potential loss of All-Pro receiver Josh Gordon. Manziel will be a part of that attack and with enough playing time, he could approach 100 carries.

Any potential fantasy impact that Manziel might have will be tied to playing time. If he can win the job in camp, he should start all 16 games. Manziel’s cocky attitude, reckless play style and sinewy rocket arm harken back to a young Brett Favre. In his first year as a starter for the Packers, Favre put up 3,000+ yards passing and had a respectable 18-14 touchdown to interception ratio. With a limited offense, experience and weapons to throw to, Manziel’s full-season stats are most likely capped at QB2 potential. Keep a close eye on his development, as Manziel could be a valuable spot starter late in the season for a needy fantasy owner.

QB Brian Hoyer
(2013 QB Rank—#44, 17.5 FPts/G)

Lacking the physical gifts of his rookie competition, Brian Hoyer is a backup-level talent that will struggle to put up numbers in this Cleveland offensive system. While Hoyer has the chops to lead and brings a two-game spark to a Cleveland team that was again spiraling out of control, he’s a career journeyman quarterback. Hoyer’s upside is limited by a run-based offense and the presence of Johnny Manziel. Hoyer will battle for the starting gig in the preseason, but remember that Manziel remains the franchise’s future. Unless Hoyer plays lights out and the Browns win games, Manziel is going to siphon starts away at some point this season. While his work ethic and leadership are admirable, Hoyer simply doesn’t bring enough to the table to be a valuable piece of your fantasy roster and is nothing more than a QB3.

RB Ben Tate
(2013 RB Rank—#33, 8.2 FPts/G)

Injuries and playing time have prevented Ben Tate from ascending into the upper tier of young runners. Given a one-way ticket to starter’s snaps in Cleveland, Tate has a chance to showcase the skills that made him a fantasy darling in 2012. Back in the zone-blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan, Tate will benefit from a familiar scheme and strong Cleveland offensive line. Sporting a great 4.6 yards per carry average for his career, Tate seems primed to climb the rankings and be a fantasy centerpiece. But before you go and make Tate a high draft pick, consider some of the red flags, the biggest being his injury history. In just three seasons Tate has missed eight games because of injury, and played hurt and ineffective in several more. He simply hasn’t displayed the ability to stay healthy for an entire season and is a good bet to break down with too voluminous of a workload. His durability was most likely a reason why his free-agent reception was very lukewarm. The bigger roadblock to Tate’s success could be his teammates. Terrance West, the third-round pick out of Towson has been impressive this offseason, as has undrafted free agent and former five-star recruit Isiah Crowell. If West’s successful exploits continue into preseason action, look for Tate to cede a large volume of touches to him. Timeshare and injury concerns figure to limit Tate, but in an offense built to run the football, look for Tate to approach the 200-yard carry range and be a low-tier RB2 for your fantasy squad.

RB Terrance West
(2013 RB Rank—#52, 4.1 FPts/G)

Stoutly built at 5’9’’, 225 lbs. with quick feet and good vision, Terrance West has a chance to carve out a large role in the Cleveland running game. Capable of heavy workloads, the Atlantic 10 prospect from Towson also has a nose for the end zone with 84, yes 84 touchdowns in three college seasons. As he continues to develop as a pass catcher (only 36 career college receptions) expect West to get the bulk of his work inside the 20. West is going to challenge Tate for playtime as soon as the opening weekend and is a must-handcuff for anyone drafting Tate as a starter. Should Tate miss time during the season, West could quickly pick up RB2 value, but for now, add West as a high-upside RB3 and hope he sees the field early and often.

WR Josh Gordon
(2013 WR Rank—#1, 16.2 FPts/G)

Overflowing with talent and unfortunate decision-making, Josh Gordon is at a career crossroads. At the time of this writing, 2013’s fantasy monster at wide receiver is appealing his yearlong suspension. If he somehow wins any measure of his appeal, whenever he steps onto the field he will be a fantasy stud no matter if Brian Hoy