For years now, the thought of drafting a Patriot running back and thrusting him into a starting lineup has given fantasy footballers nightmares. I am here to tell you that if you avoid New England’s backfield at all costs simply because it’s New England, you are doing yourself a disservice. The Patriots’ backfield is not the best for fantasy, but it certainly isn’t the worst.

In the regular season, New England scored the third most touchdowns of any team. Their 61 total touchdowns easily led the AFC (the Chargers were second with 46). The Patriots only trailed the Saints (66), and the Packers (70). While Tom Brady did do the bulk of the work, the Patriots weren’t afraid to pound the rock into the endzone. Simply put: the Patriots are one of the leagues highest scoring offenses and they still use running backs inside the five. That is why BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been a solid RB2 for a couple of years now.

New England played this season with five running backs, and you’ve probably heard about all of them at some point or another over the past six months. They are Green-Ellis, Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Kevin Faulk, and Shane Vereen.

Green-Ellis led all Patriots running backs with a +13.5 PFF grade. He had 405 snaps and touched the ball in every game. He was once again a workhorse down by the goal-line, registering 11 touchdowns, tied for fifth in the league. In terms of fantasy points? He ranked 22nd. He has scored double-digit touchdowns in two straight seasons. However, he might not even be in New England next year. He signed a one-year contract before the 2011 season began, and is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Keeping five running backs on the roster could be challenging. The Patriots must decide what to do with Green-Ellis. Faulk won’t play forever. Woodhead doesn’t have the size to be an every-down back. That’s why Belichick drafted two running backs in the 2011 draft – Ridley and Vereen. Vereen only saw the field 26 times this season over three games, so we didn’t get enough of a sample size from him to make many judgements. Vereen should see more playing time next season, though. Ridley, on the other hand, carried the ball 87 times (second-most on the team), and looked pretty darn good. Ridley already looks like the most complete back on the team.

Here is a look at New England’s three most relevant backs in 2011. This chart shows snaps, fantasy points, and points per snap.

Woodhead’s 0.14 PPS was one of the worst among running backs, according to Alessandro Miglio’s 2011 PPS report. Woodhead’s poor season does aid to the never-trust-Belichick syndrome. However, Woodhead is not your typical running back and nobody was expecting him to be the Patriot’s best fantasy option in 2011. This season it was Green-Ellis. Next season, I’m putting my money on Ridley.

Green-Ellis’ PPS is inflated somewhat because of his 11 touchdowns. However, such is life with running backs in fantasy. You just have to take advantage of that. With only one touchdown added to his numbers, Ridley’s 0.23 PPS is pretty impressive. We don’t want to assume too much, but I think it’s safe to say that if Ridley had received those goal-line carries instead of Green-Ellis, he would have found the endzone around 10 times. If we add 50 snaps and nine touchdowns to Ridley’s real totals (giving him the goal-line carries, essentially), he ends the season with 0.41 PPS. That number would have ranked him in the “best” category in Miglio’s PPS breakdown.

Some people (myself included), think that Ridley will become more of a factor as early as this postseason. If you are in a playoff league, I wouldn’t go running to add him to your roster just yet. Green-Ellis is still on the team and will still get the goal-line carries. However, if we look at how Ridley’s season has played out, he has earned himself more and more playing time.

This chart breaks down his first eight games and his last four games by snaps, percent of snaps, and carries. There are only 12 games because Ridley did not receive snaps in the other four.

Ridley has fresh legs heading into the postseason. In his last four games, his total carries have steadily increased. Ridley’s young legs have shown throughout the season. He had 10 runs this season that went for 15+ yards. Green-Ellis had a season long of 18 yards and just four carries that went for 15+ yards. Using PFF’s Breakaway Percentage, over 46 percent of Ridley’s yardage came on runs of 15+ yards.

There’s still more. Ridley’s 5.1 YPC average was the best on the team, and significantly higher than Green-Ellis’ 3.7 average.  Ridley led all Patriots (with at least 20 carries) with a 3.0 yards after contact average. Green-Ellis and Woodhead were at 2.1 and 2.3, respectively. Ridley forced 11 missed tackles on 87 attempts. While not much better than BJGE and Woodhead, Ridley still led them in missed tackles per attempt.

Ridley has ensured that he will receive more carries next season. If Green-Ellis goes (which truly remains to be seen), Ridley will likely step into the role Green-Ellis has played the last few seasons. If Green-Ellis stays, expect to see much more of a split in terms of workload. Either way, Ridley has a bright future. He’s no first-rounder yet, but Green-Ellis has proven over the last two seasons that even a New England running back can be RB2 material. Next season, it’s Ridley’s turn.

Have any questions or comments? Send them to Tyler Loechner on Twitter @PFF_Loechner.

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