StormTracker

Since December 1, Fargo Moorhead has officially recorded a high above freezing 36 times.  That is nearly one day out of every two.  The record for the most days above freezing during the three principal months of winter is 44 such days set back during the winter of 1923-1924.  With 20 more days left in climatological winter to challenge that mark, this winter is already ranked as having the 9th most days above 32 degrees since 1881.

This is all in stark contrast to the past four winters.  As many of you probably remember, the past 4 winters all finished with below average temperatures.  Those winters combined had a grand total of 34 days with a temperature above freezing, not quite matching what we accomplished this year in just over two months.

My strong suspicion is we will not break the record, but either way, this mild winter has certainly given us a taste of the warmer side of our climate.

The official snow total for January 2012 was 8.0 inches, well within the range of what would be considered average for the month.  Our current 30 year average snowfall for January is 11.1 inches because of some recent heavier snowfalls during the month, but the historic average is 8.5 inches, so last month’s snow total although considered light by many, was very typical for the month.

The melted snow and rain added up to 0.58 inches of liquid which also falls near average for January.  The average liquid precipitation in January is currently 0.70 inches.  Although many recent winters have been quite snowy, the month of January has not typically been the problem month in recent years.

The last time the month of January recorded over 20 inches of snow was back in 1997.  Including this year, since 2000, Fargo Moorhead residents have had to shovel less than 10 inches of snow in 10 of those 13 years.

January 2012 continued our stretch of months with above average temperatures.  Last month was our 8th straight month with temperatures above the 30 year average with most of that stretch finishing well above average.  The average temperature in January was 19.6 degrees which tied 1931 for the 4th warmest January on record.   That is 10.3 degrees above average for the first month of the year.

Last month was the first January that finished with an above average temperature since 2007.  In fact, 7 out of the past 9 Januaries finished below normal perhaps adding to the overall pleasant feel of the month.  When compared to January 2011 the difference is striking.  Last year the month recorded an average temperature of just 3.2 degrees, which means, on average, each day of January this year was over 16 degrees warmer than what we recorded last year.

The warmest temperature in January was a 55 degree high on January 5 which was also the warmest temperature on record for the month.

The lower 48 states have for the most part recorded a mild winter.  Locally, the month of December finished 11.2 degrees above average and the month of January is currently running about 10 degrees above normal.  If February records temperatures this mild, the winter of 2011-2012 will challenge the winters of 1986-1987 and 1930-1931 as the warmest winter on record.

Yet, as we enjoy one of our warmest winters since 1881 in the Red River Valley, other parts of the world have not been so lucky.  As a general rule, if one part of the Northern Hemisphere is well above average, you will almost always find another area that is recording the opposite extreme.  For example, on January 17, parts of the northern Sahara Desert received an unusual snow event of several inches.

Plus, much of India has experienced a very cold winter with temperatures averaging 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with Bangalore recording their coldest January on record to date.  The cold Indian winter has created much hardship for millions of people.

I have been asked numerous times in the past week if I thought Fargo Moorhead would break the record for the least snowiest winter on record.   When I mention that we have already passed that mark, there always seems to be a sigh of disappointment from the person who asked.  Plus, when I mention we may not even end up in the Top 20 least snowiest winters on record, the disappointment seems to change to a surprise.

Recent winters have tended to skew our perception as to how frequent in the past so called brown winters occurred.  Our current snow total is approximately 1 foot, already more than the winter of 1957-1958 when only 9.3 inches was measured.   The winter of 1911-12 recorded 23.9 inches and is currently ranked as the 20^th least snowiest winter.

Therefore with 3 months left in our potential snow season, we need to record less than 12 more inches to even finish in the bottom 20.  The last time we accomplished that was during the winter of 1986-1987.

Just a weeeee bit chilly in Alaska this morning.  The red numbers are the air temperature in ˚F.  Green numbers will be the Dew Point where it is warm enough to be recorded.  Coldest Day in Fairbanks since 2006, which is when we had our last warm winter (no coicidence).

Snow is like the star quarterback or running back on a football team.  It gets all the publicity and to a large degree for good reason.  Snow gathers our attention; it needs to be shoveled and plowed.  It creates hazardous travel conditions and often disrupts our schedule.

But the long 50 yard pass for a touchdown that makes the highlight reel would not be possible if your offensive line did not do their job.  In the same way, although everyone notices the snow, the moisture content of the snow is something that largely goes unnoticed.  Yet in the end, it is the most important element of a snowfall.  Although until the event on Sunday this winter has been mainly brown, precipitation amounts have been far from zero.

The three principle months of winter average 2.14 inches of liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) and since December 1, officially, Fargo Moorhead has recorded 0.87 inches of precipitation, certainly below average, but not by as much as most people would probably guess.

The term air mass is used frequently by meteorologists.  By definition an air mass is a large volume of air that has similar properties.  Those properties would include temperature and often moisture content.  These air masses will develop certain characteristics over the course of many days or weeks by remaining in a certain geographic regions.

In the winter, the far northern latitudes receive little or no sunlight allowing the air in these areas to become increasingly cold.  Plus, because the nearby moisture source, theArctic Ocean, is frozen over, the air also becomes very dry.  Although the term Arctic is frequently used when colder air moves in, most of our colder air masses locally originate in centralCanadaand not in areas above theArctic Circle.

Therefore, by definition many of our cold snaps in the winter should be referred to as a polar air mass, notArctic.  Although, the air mass the moved through a couple of days ago was of true Arctic origins originating in Siberia and interiorAlaska.

Yesterday in this space, I mentioned that our just completed first half of winter was the warmest such stretch since 1881.  As the old saying goes, records are made to be broken, plus, as I wrote about earlier in the week, the winter of 1877-1878 may have started even warmer, so the term record is a relative term with a database of only 130 years.

Yet, the past several weeks was still impressive to me in the sense that these exceptionally mild temperatures occurred during a time-frame when many atmospheric and oceanic signals suggested that temperatures would be colder, or at least nearer to the long-term average.  Again, our database of past events is limited, especially when it comes to oceanic conditions which have the largest overall impact on our weather, yet glancing through the data, I could not find a winter that started off well above average with similar overall conditions to what is currently present in the oceans and in several atmospheric oscillations currently in play.

Simply put, this winter is a prime example of our limited skill in forecasting beyond 1 or 2 weeks.

January 15 marked the half-way point of climatological winter and that stretch we just finished was the warmest on record.  The period from December 1 through January 15 averaged 25.3 degrees which was not only the warmest such period on record; it was the warmest by over 3 degrees.

The previous record for the first-half of winter was back in 2006-2007 with an average temperature of 21.8 degrees.  The second half of that winter finished much colder, yet, that winter overall still finished above average.  As many of you will recall, after that winter, the next 4 all finished with below average temperatures.  The first half of the winter of 2008-2009 finished with an average temperature of just 2.8 degrees which was the 13th coldest such period and a remarkable departure from what we have recorded this year.  The past month and a half was not only warm, but relatively dry.

Since December 1 Fargo Moorhead has officially recorded 0.53 inches of rain and melted snow which was the driest start of winter in 10 years.