It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. This is the 4th of the season, so I am a little bit behind where I’d like to be at this point. I may need to start forecasting other variables than just snow, but I really wanted to avoid doing that this season. We’ll see as the season continues.

The last PBR forecast called for snow of 1-5 inches from January 28th to the 29th. If all five are in range, it’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range is On Target. Here’s how they fared:

Albany: 0.0
Binghamton: 1.4
Buffalo: 5.3
Rochester: 4.8
Syracuse: 0.7

Only Binghamton and Rochester were in range, so that’s a Complete Miss. Buffalo and Syracuse were just off the thresholds, so this may be one of the better missed forecasts I’ve had. But a miss is still a miss, no matter how close or far it is.

That brings the average down a little. I still have 6 PBRs and 2 SITDs to get done, so there is about half left to go. But looking at the results, I’m going to have to do a little better on these PBRs to have a chance!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

I got a call from Andrea who writes for a newspaper in Washington, DC.  She’s ready to take a road trip come tomorrow (Monday) in search of snow seeing how they have only received 1.7 inches of snow so far this season.  Here is where your help is needed.

We have nothing on the ground here in Syracuse and from what I’ve heard Binghamton is the same way.  Most likely Buffalo, Rochester and Albany are showing just grass too.  I mentioned to her that Fulton probably has some snow on the ground from the 30+ inches they received about a week ago or at least some decent size snow piles.

The question is, do you have snow on the ground where you live right now?  Does the Tug Hill still have a lot  of snow?  Remember she is coming from DC so the closer to DC the snow is the better rather than Andrea having to drive all the way to Fulton.  If you do have snow on the ground can you post in the comments section and let us know where it is.

This has to be one of my most embarrassing posts ever.  Living in the Syracuse area and I have to ask if there is any snow out there   Ok enough said and thanks for any feedback you can give us.

Have a Great Super Bolw Sunday and think of these numbers 3-0 & 8-4.  Go Giants!!!

I don’t remember a winter quite like this one, and I’ll be doing something I didn’t think I’d ever do with these forecasts. We’ll get to that later, but first, it’s a look at the January prediction.

Fore January, I was expecting below average snowfall. If all 5 cities were below average, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Below are the totals with average in parenthesis.

Albany: 7.5 (17.6)
Binghamton: 17.2 (22.2)
Buffalo: 20.8 (25.3)
Rochester: 19.9 (28.2)
Syracuse: 24.6 (34.0)

All five were below average, Bull’s Eye! Let’s check the standings. Remember that with the SITD forecasts, a Bull’s Eye is worth 4 points.

Still not at the 1.00 goal, but I’m getting there. I’m pretty sure the latest PBR was a Complete Miss, but the next Point Blank Range edition will show that result. Either way, I’m doing a bit better now than I was at the last forecast update.

With that out of the way, time for the February outlook, and for what I believe is a first for me, it’s basically a repeat of last month! Hey, if it keeps working, keep using it, right?

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is 10 inches or more below average, snowfall for February.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for February.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

Well, look at that, it’s February! Time to take a look back at January’s snowfall for the GSB cities.

Albany: 7.5
Binghamton: 17.2
Buffalo: 20.8
Rochester: 19.9
Syracuse: 24.6

The big winner was Syracuse with just over 2 feet of snow! Um…what the heck kind of January was that? All of the GSB cities were below their average for the month! Wow. Let’s go a little bit deeper than just snowfall and check the precipitation stats.

Albany: 2.26
Binghamton: 3.04
Buffalo: 4.42
Rochester: 3.32
Syracuse: 3.88

For comparison sake, here is each city’s average precipitation for January:

Albany: 2.59
Binghamton: 2.45
Buffalo: 3.18
Rochester: 2.41
Syracuse: 2.50

Four of the GSB cities had above average precipitation, and Albany was pretty close to average. It just didn’t fall as snow. A bit colder weather (ok, A LOT MORE colder weather), and we may have been talking about some decent snowfall numbers for the month.

Either way, it’s been a very snowless season so far. But I can’t shake the feeling that will change at some point this season. I mean, it can’t be like this the whole season…can it?

Hey, have a great weekend everyone! Enjoy the Super Bowl!

1/30 8:30 pm – All the stats should be up to date right now other than Albany who hasn’t reported this last update.

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Ahhh, the clean, fresh look of a new snowfall.  Something we haven’t been seeing much of this season.  All of the cities including Albany are still in the snow race.  I still have a hard time saying Albany still has a shot at winning this late in the season.  All as it will take is a nice nor’easter or two that hangs to the east of Syracuse and they are golden

Buffalo set a date record with 4.4 inches of snow breaking the old record from 1909 of 4.3 inches of snow.  Rochester picked up 4.8 inches yesterday while Syracuse, Binghamton and Albany are showing little or no snow for yesterday but most of their snow if any came during the overnight which isn’t being reported yet.  Syracuse should have several more inches to add to their totals come the next NOAA update and I’m not quite sure about Albany and Bingo.

Our snow contest got a mention in the Wall Street Journal today which is pretty cool IMO.  Meteorologist Eric Holthaus writes some weather articles for the WSJ and gave us a mention.  Thanks Eric   You can check it out at blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/01/30/weather-journal-what-even-happened-to-winter/

I’ll update the snow totals when NOAA puts them up later this evening.  Have a Great Monday All

For the 3rd time this month, it’s another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. Before I get into the outlook though, I have to check how the previous one fared.

That forecast was for the 12th and 13th, with anticipated accumulations being 1-6 inches. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range would end up being On Target.

Here’s how much snow each city had as a 2 day total:

Albany: 2.6
Binghamton: 5.5
Buffalo: 6.4
Rochester: 5.5
Syracuse: 12.1

Buffalo was just over while Syracuse was was the big winner of the two days. The other three ended up in range, so it’s On Target.

I’m finally on the board, but still a ways away from the 1.00 average. I could really use a Bull’s Eye, so here it goes!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Syracuse is still winning by just a few flakes and nearing the end of January the Golden Snowball trophy is still up for grabs.  To be honest I don’t think any of the 5 GSB cities really have an advantage right now which is kind of cool that it’s so close this far into the season.  I think it’s time to do a snow dance once again.  Only 2 per season and this is the last one so lets hope it works.  I’ll post after it’s over which will be in the next day or two.  As always, no media or photos allowed

I was just reading around and came across an article that Sean Kirst just put out a little while ago.  Those of you that visit here frequently each season know how much Sean loves our snow contest and is probably the biggest reason why our fun snow race is as popular as it is today.  Last year he even took me out on my Birthday.  Well not exactly out but he made me walk around the freezing snowy city streets, sit in a snow banks for hours to get a good picture and he even made me carry the Golden Snowball trophy the whole time.  OK, truth is it was all fun and neither one of us wanted to carry the trophy because we were both afraid we would drop and break it   True story!

Now that would have been a story for sure.  Headlines read “Oracle of Snow Contest Breaks Golden Snowball Trophy”.  Better yet “Award Winning Journalist Sean Kirst Says Oops as Trophy Crashes” .   I decided to be the brave one (like I had a choice) and carried it after our attemp to get Dennis Nett, the photographer to carry it failed.  All in all it was a blast though and a Birthday to remember.

Where was I?  Oh yeah, anyways Sean who is a journalist for the Post Standard and Syracuse.com has an article out with his normal witty style and I love how Syracuse Mayor Miner took up a bet with Mayor Ryan of Binghamton.  All in fun and check out Sean’s article Here at Syracuse.com . 

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Have a Great Day All….

I don’t think it’s going to happen but….  Looking at some of the cities least snowiest seasons there is a chance that some of the Golden Snowball cities just may break their records.  Keep in mind that there is still a lot of time left in the snow season but with the lack of snow this season it is still possible.

I know Albany won’t break their record.  Just a good gust of wind should blow enough snow over from Syracuse to put them over their pitiful record of 13.8 inches   As for the other cities though you would have to think that it’s possible.  All 4 of the cities have less than half of their least snowiest season on record.  Steve Madsen who resides in Buffalo AKA – the General   Syracuse & Binghamton dates back to 1951 – 52 season.

* ALBANY *
Min – 13.8 inches ( 1912 – 1913 )

* BINGHAMTON *
Min – 47.8 inches ( 1988 – 1989 )

* BUFFALO *
Min  -  22.4 (1889-1890)

* ROCHESTER *
Min  -  29.2  (1932-1933)

* SYRACUSE *
Min – 59.4 inches ( 2001 – 2002 )

Then on another note, the snow contest is still wide open to any of the 5 Goldensnowball cities.  Yup, even Albany has a real chance right now of winning the Golden Snowball trophy which would be the first time ever for them.  I think if that happens then Stephen or Sean Kirst should shave their head   In my opinion it’s not looking good for Syracuse right now and this could be the season they go down.  One or two good storms could plow any of the cities way past the others.  Good Luck to all of the GSB cities and hopefully the Snow Gods will bless you with some snow soon

Right now in the National snowfall contest at the Golden Snow Globe site the big 3 from NY are getting their butts kicked   Anchorage, AK continues to add to their totals and at last update they were about 65 inches ahead of Syracuse.  I think one of the big 3 will need quite a few storms to catch up but it will be interesting to watch.  I’ll try and update those stats in the next couple of days.

Have a Great Day All and let’s hope this next round of snow due anytime now drops more than they are forecasting

Updated 1/14  6:30 am – All of the Golden Snowball Cities are up to date

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Updated 1/14 1:00 am – All of the snow stats for the day haven’t been reported yet.  Syracuse and Binghamton are valid as of 10 PM, Albany didn’t report the last update and Buffalo and Rochester’s snow stats are only up until 4 PM.  Chances are that Albany, Buffalo and Rochester will have some (maybe a lot) more snow to add come tomorrow morning.  The snow is hanging just north of Syracuse trying to slide toward the city so they may have more to report also.  Here is what we have so far according to NOAA.

Syracuse - 8.0 Record – Old Record 6.1 in 1989  They also set a rain record for the day.
Buffalo – 6.4 Record – Old Record 5.1 in 2000
Binghamton – 5.5
Rochester – 5.5
Albany – Trace?????

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Start the GSB snow contest TAKE TWO – Let’s restart the contest all over like it never started to begin with. Here we are just about half way through January and only a foot of snow is leading the snow contest. Only a foot of snow for Syracuse which has held the bragging rights for the past several years as the snowiest city in the Golden Snowball contest.

Albany, which I consider the place to go in the winter to get away from the snow actually has a realistic chance right now of winning the contest. It would be the first time ever for Albany. They added another 2.6 inches of snow today to add to their totals for the season. Enough snow to slip past Rochester and go into 3rd in the snow contest. Albany in 3rd place in the middle of January just don’t seem right does is? Well, way to go Albany I suppose. Makes me wonder what Governor Cuomo
has up his sleeve

Make sure ya’s check out Stephen’s Point Blank Range Forecasts below

Right now the Golden Snowball Trophy is up for grabs for any of the cities. Snow is in the forecast for all of the GSB cities I believe and come the end of the weekend (probably sooner) there may be a new leader. I’m taking a guess that come the end of the weekend (Sunday Night) it will be

Rochester
Syracuse
Albany
Binghamton
Buffalo

Which city do think will be winning? Leave a comment with what you all think the line-up will be come the end of Sunday.

Take it slow driving and have a Super Day All

Looks like the Upstate NY region is going to get some snow for the end of the week. Before we get into that though, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

I believed Syracuse woul