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We seek to pick winning funds with superior management and quantitative characteristics linked to strong performance. Our quantitative research uses the most comprehensive mutual fund database in the world to determine the best strategies for long-term investing success. We then supplement those studies with extensive qualitative research of portfolio managers, analysts, and traders through onsite visits and follow-up phone calls.
 
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Russel Kinnel is director of mutual fund research for Morningstar, Inc. and editor of Morningstar FundInvestor, a monthly print newsletter for individual investors. He also writes the Fund Spy column for Morningstar.com, the company's investment Web site.

Since joining the company in 1994, Kinnel has covered the Fidelity, Janus, T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard mutual fund families. He helped develop the new Morningstar Rating for funds and the new Morningstar Style Box methodology. He also is co-author of the company's first book, The Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: 5-Star Strategies for Success, which was published in January 2003.

 
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Russel Kinnel,
Director of Fund Research and Editor, Morningstar FundInvestor
Russel Kinnel is director of mutual fund research for Morningstar, Inc. and editor of Morningstar FundInvestor, a monthly print newsletter for individual investors.
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How My Picks For 2009 and Beyond Fared
What a difference a year makes. My picks for 2009 and beyond came right near the market bottom. At that point there were so many attractive investments, I had a slew of picks to share. It's a good reminder that the best buying opportunities usually come when everyone is redeeming their funds and general panic has set in. I examined how the funds did from Jan. 8, 2009, through Jan. 31, 2012. I used Jan. 8 because the electronic copy of FundInvestor is usually available on the 7th of the month.

I was still a fan of equities at that point, but some allocation funds looked attractive, too, particularly for those too weary to hold on to a pure equity fund.

Overall, about two thirds of my choices outperformed their peers and their category benchmarks. And 79% outperformed the broad benchmarks. All told, only three of my 23 fund picks had less than a double-digit annualized return. Let's take a look.

Large Value
I had one rebound pick and one red-hot fund pick. Wouldn't you know it? The rebound pick did better.

Dodge & Cox Stock DODGX had come in for a lot of criticism because of its poor 2008 showing, but I kept the faith. The fund returned an annualized 13.6% from Jan. 8, 2009, through Jan. 31, 2012. That topped its average peer and its category benchmark but lagged the S&P 500.

Fairholme FAIRX, as you might have heard, cooled off since I picked it. It returned an annualized 8%, which lagged all three tests. Still, I consider both of these funds keepers.

Moderate Allocation
Sticking with that theme, I selected Dodge & Cox Balanced DODBX, which returned 13.1% annualized--just a hair below Dodge & Cox Stock's return. That topped peers and the category benchmark but not the broader benchmark.

Foreign Large Blend
I picked four from this group. Two were standouts, one was middling, and one stunk up the joint. Harbor International HAINX was tops with a 13.3% annualized return, which went 3-for-3 on the performance tests. Litman Gregory Master International MSILX likewise posted a 12.1% return, which also topped peers and indexes alike.

Manning & Napier World Opportunities EXWAX returned a respectable 9.3% annualized, which topped the broad benchmark but not the secondary category ones.

Artio International Equity II JETAX returned a meager 3.3% annualized as its top-down work backfired. Specifically, it favors China and India over the resource-producing emerging markets like Brazil and Russia. Still, the fund's long-term record is encouraging, and all four of these funds are keepers.

Foreign Large Value
Oakmark International OAKIX and Causeway International Value CIVVX came through with top-quintile returns. Oakmark's 17.5% annualized return thumped the indexes and its peers with a top-percentile performance. Causeway's 11.1% likewise swept all three tests. At the time, Causeway had fallen off some investors' radar screens because of a stretch of middling returns, but our analysts remained fans of its experienced managers and sound strategy. Both remain keepers.

Small Value
Allianz NFJ Small Value PNVDX produced an outstanding 18% annualized return as dividend-paying small caps surged back into favor. That topped the broad benchmark and category benchmark but was actually a hair below the median small-value fund, so it passed two of three tests. The fund is still a keeper.

Large Blend
Longleaf Partners LLPFX and Sequoia Fund SEQUX delivered great returns of 19.9% and 16.8% annualized, respectively. Those figures swept the three performance tests. I remain a big fan of both, though of course they get where they are going in different ways. Both are focused, but Sequoia leans a little more toward quality and Longleaf toward deep value, so Longleaf has more short-term volatility. Both are keepers.

Convertibles
Ahh, to go back to early 2009, when lots of convertibles were available with double-digit yields. No more. I went with the more conservative Vanguard Convertible VCVSX just to be on the safe side. Its caution meant it just barely finished behind its median peer and the convertible benchmark. However, that 16.5% annualized return was better than the S&P 500 and the broad allocation benchmark. Hold on to this one.

Pacific Asia Ex-Japan
Matthews Pacific Tiger MAPTX produced the best return of the lot with an outstanding 26.1% return. Not only did that thump broad foreign and world market indexes, but it also was top-decile for its category and about 500 basis points ahead of the category index. This remains a keeper.

U.S. Real Estate
T. Rowe Price Real Estate TRREX produced the second-highest return of the group with a 25.2% return. Not too shabby. However, it only won 2 of the 3 performance tests as the category benchmark was 15 basis points better. Nonetheless, this is one of the better real estate funds.

Small Blend
Curtis Jensen's Third Avenue Small Cap Value TASCX disappointed. While 13.1% is a nice absolute return, that's well behind all three performance tests. The fund has now lagged three calendar years running. We like the process and would hold on, but patience is growing thin.

Global Real Estate
Third Avenue Real Estate Value TAREX returned a decent 13.8% annualized. That topped the MSCI EAFE but lagged the category and the category benchmark. I do like Michael Winer's unorthodox emphasis on non-REITs, so I'd stick with it.

Foreign Small/Mid Value
Imagine how much better this scorecard would look if I'd ignored Third Avenue. Third Avenue International Value's TAVIX 10.9% return did at least beat both indexes. However, Amit Wadhwaney has lagged his average peer since 2009.

Foreign Large Growth
Harbor International Growth HAIGX returned 11% under Jim Gendelman. Again, a good figure that beat both benchmarks while lagging its average peer. This fund is borderline for being categorized as "throw it back." Subadvisor Marsico has been under pressure from a high debt load and a key manager departure. Some weak macroeconomic calls have hurt a number of their funds.

Large Growth
Vanguard Primecap Core VPCCX had a nifty 16.1% return, which beat the S&P 500 but lagged its peers by a hair and the Russell 1000 Growth by 300 basis points. This one is most definitely a keeper. Great managers and low costs are tough to beat.

Diversified Pacific Asia
Matthews Asia Dividend MAPIX was a great winner across the board. Its 19.6% return pummeled indexes and peers alike. As you probably know, I'm a big fan of funds that can tap high return assets while dialing down the risk somewhat. I'm quite pleased at how well it managed to do in a rally.

World Stock
This is one of my favorite categories, and I had three picks to share. All three swept the three performance tests. David Samra and Dan O'Keefe's Artisan Global Value Investor ARTGX led the way with a great 16.5% return as they took full advantage of the market panic to scoop up some deals of a lifetime. Will the next three years deliver such strong returns for this and other world-stock funds? I doubt it, but they may well be respectable.

Dodge & Cox Global DODWX also produced a top-third showing with a 15.2% annualized return. You know I'm a big fan.

Marsico Global MGLBX proved to be one of the best bets at the firm with a fine 15% showing. Unfortunately, comanager Cory Gilchrist left Marsico late last year. I'd be inclined to take my profits and move on.

Commodities
Harbor Commodity Real Return HACMX generated 14.6% annualized returns, which was much better than the commodity benchmarks and the peer group fared. The fund is run by PIMCO, and it has done an outstanding job. It's a fund best used in moderation, but I'd keep it.

More...
How My Picks For 2009 and Beyond Fared
SEC Proposes Radical Changes to Money Markets
MFI Webinar April 10, Plus Fidelity Manager Changes
How Did My Choices From 2007 Fare?
Final Buy the Unloved and Other Flow Data for 2011
Sequoia to Close to Some Sales Channels
Satterwhite Takes Manager of the Year
Studzinski Retires From Oakmark Equity & Income
Correction, Plus Two Fund Reopenings
Manager Invest $, Now in Funds 500
More...
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