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Ryan Reynolds vs. A Lot of Penguins: Box Office Predictions

June 15th 2011 15:55
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We're not even at the end of June, and we're already at our third superhero action extravaganza. The previous entries, Thor and X-Men: First Class have performed well and beyond the doubts of a few naysayers, but neither have been the big-business flick that we have seen with The Dark Knight and Iron Man. Will that void be filled in by The Green Lantern or will that be reserved for the upcoming Captain America.

Even with only a few days left to its opening, it's still hard to track what can of business will be expected for Lantern. While the third superhero flick this summer, it will be the first non-Marvel property and is instead from its archrival, DC Comics. Unlike Marvel, DC has struggled with their non-Batman output lately (Superman Returns, Jonah Hex), so the success of Lantern will determine whether will be see anymore of the superhero (The Flash, Wonder Woman) grace the silver screen anytime soon.

Granted, the Green Lantern has become one of DC's most popular and best selling comic series, and it'll be interesting to see how that success will translate at the box office. The film also relays on the star-power of Ryan Reynolds, who has always proven to be a likable (if a bit smug) presence in romantic comedies, but it remains to be seen if he can truly make it as an action star (if I remember correctly, his last superhero movies were the dreadful Blade: Trinity and X-Men Origins: Wolverine). The movie is directed by Martin Campbell, best known for Goldeneye and Casino Royale, but whose non-James Bond films are not-so-successful (Vertical Limit, Edge of Darkness).

I also have to wonder whether its 3D presentations will prove to be another setback, as public interest in the format is waning, which has culminated in the underperformance of fellow summer flicks like Pirates 4 and Kung-Fu Panda 2. In the end, I expect a strong opening weekend number, but I'm uncertain whether will lead to good legs at the box office.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $65,000,000-$75,000,000

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To honest, had this movie come out when I was around ten, I would be all over this. "Jim Carrey with a bunch of cute penguins? Hell yeah, sign me up!" Nowadays, I look at the trailer and see it as yet another attempt from the actor to maintain his relevance in the movie world. Not that Carrey isn't still popular, and he has still far from being another nineties comic oddity (he ain't no Pauly Shore). At the same time, it's hard to judge Carrey's popularity will go on as his recent films like Yes Man or A Christmas Carol only received a 'meh' reception when the came out. The news that Carrey may be working on sequels to Bruce Almighty and Dumb and Dumber proves that Carrey himself is aware of his battle to stay in the big league.

Mr. Popper's Penguins, an adaptation of the classic children's book, may seem to be a step in the right direction. However, the penguin-crazed that swept the nation a few years seems to have cool down a bit, which may smell trouble for this and other upcoming peguin-friendly flick, Happy Feet 2.

However, it's release is a nice bite of counter-programming to The Green Lantern, and might become of the more successful family films this Summer which is already in an action frenzy.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $25,000,000-$35,000,000

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