CURRENT MAPS

1100  4 FEB   2012   … STARDATE  201202.04

The extreme winter pattern that has developed over Europe is locked in position and shows absolutely no sign of breaking over next 7 to 10 days.  Complicating this is an development of a prolonged period of extreme winter weather ….a real historic old timers massive BLIZZARD…   over Southern Europe which is going to continue for another three days.  This is just exceptional weather and one that is meteorologically  extremely significant and a very good learning experience for anybody wishing to understand the nuances of European WINTER  weather.

What makes this extreme winter weather  in Europe  even more significant  is that the  atmosphere has responded to the arctic blast and a deep trough   in the Jet stream over central and Eastern Europe …by building a equally strong  Ridge  over the Azores and Spain.  This massive Ridge is  BLOCKING the deep trough over central and Eastern Europe and Western Russia/  Ukraine  from moving   west .   And this includes the 1060 mb  massive  Arctic HIGH over  NW Russia .   There  is  literally NO place for the Deep trough in the Jet stream   with  the  deep arctic cold  or the center of the massive  HIGH over Northwest Russia ….to move .   In other wirds  the arctic  cold    has No  place to   drain or  “spread ” out  like  it  does in the North America  when  Canadian arctic HIGH pressure systems dropped out of Canada and move towards the VA  or Texas .    Instead  it just sits  there   and it’s colder and colder as more and more mass of snow continues to fall.

This image shows the temperatures from yesterday afternoon on February 3 and this morning February 4.  Remember these numbers are in Celsius NOT Fahrenheit…  But there are plenty of temperature converters  you can access through Google to convert them if you cannot do the mass in your head.  -18c   is    ZERO degrees F   …-10C  =14F

As you can see most of Southern Germany was at or below zero as was all Poland.  There were several locations in the western and Central Ukraine as well as Belarus which dropped  down to an astounding  -33c this morning.  And many locations on the afternoon of February 3 in France   (of all places)   did not break  32 degrees  F.   Most of Germany saw max temps in the teens and single digits as the western  Poland  Austria and Hungary.   Many locations in the Ukraine and Belarus did not get above 04 Max temperatures yesterday and if you look at the readings in the the Balkans even south of the Danube their locations which did not get above 0  degrees   F  !!!

This image shows the European and Asian temperature anomalies from last night.  The BOTTOM  map shows the actual  850 mb  temps and you can see how impressive the cold most of Europe is…   while the  TOP map shows the temperature anomalies relative to normal and the dark purple   and violet colors s show the extreme anomalies over Western Russia  …eastern …central… and now Western Europe.

The morning satellite picture shows a massive clouds swirl covering southeastern Europe.  There  is  widespread heavy snow and high winds and now blasting that crap out of most of the Balkans and the Western Ukraine.

The surface  map from overnight tells the reasons WHY  quite nicely…  This is from the European model and we can see that last night there was a moderately strong area of   LOW pressure over Southern Italy…  and   the Large arctic HIGH of 1059  MB over Northwest Russia near Saint Petersburg.  If you look of the BLACK  Lines which are the Isoabrs … you can see that the arctic HIGH  pressure extends all the way into France and Eastern Spain.  The interaction between the surface low  of 1002 MB  and the   1059 HIGH is producing strong east winds across the Balkans feeding the moisture into the elevated train and producing massive  snow falls this morning on the surface maps and reports.

If you take a look of the RED lines …which of the jet stream configurations…  you will notice that there is a Upper Low associated with the surface Low over Corsica and Sardinia  -   which I have highlighted in darker GREEN.   But there is a second ULL over   Poland  and the   western Baltic  Sea….  which is going to get pulled into the big Low over the Mediterranean over the next three days and produce ANOTHER   blizzard .

Here we can see that on the European Model   valid  for 72 hours from now.  The Low that was over Italy is  now  over Greece and it is Much  deeper..995 MB.   What has happened here is that the Low over Italy has strengthened as the Upper Low over Poland has been pulled into the southern  Upper Low.   This process is known as the Fujiwara effect  and while it doesn’t happen very often at the surface it does happen more commonly at the upper levels the atmosphere.

Even more impressive is the pressure gradient!!!!    The 1061 massive    Arctic HIGH  is still there  and it has moved at all…  while this 995 Low is trying to move into the Bulgaria and Romania ans from Greece.  Of course it can’t but the interaction between them is producing a lot more Black Lines an extremely strong winds across all of southeastern Europe and into the western half of the Ukraine.  Also  keep in Mind the  blizzard is still raging past 72 hours!!!!

Also take a look at what’s going on over Spain   …the Azores and the United Kingdom.  The ridge in the Jet stream   there has continued to expand and push towards Iceland and the west coast of Norway.  Keep in mind the  Teleconnection  here…  This massive  Azores  Ridge means that the system over the Balkans can become very strong and deep and also ensures a prolonged extremely heavy snow event because neither the arctic high or the deep low over Greece can move.

This next image shows the GFS snowfall  forecast for the next 72 hours and most of the Balkans and Western Ukraine are going to disappear under a blanket of 2 to 3 feet of snow because of the current heavy snow falling over the region….  And the 2nd massive blizzard which is going to start Sunday.

Finally this Last image shows that changes snow cover for Europe over the next eight days.  The image on the left is based upon the snowfall as of this morning … February 4…  The image on the right based upon the model data eight days some now February 12.   These maps  speak for themselves….

WOW.. just    wow…

so much  to say  so much to say   so much to say –   DAVE MATHEWS    BAND.

Really I do.  If you  are a energy meteorologist  or   a TV  meteorologist…   this winter has not been particularly enticing here in the  U.S.     Of course given  that the last two winters have been gangbusters  those two types of  Meteorologists   probably need a break.  BUT if you are  agricultural /Grain  meteorology   –  and I do far more Gain  weather than energy weather -    and it’s been gangbusters  all around the world and helluva lot of fun.

Every single day I am issuing forecasts not just for the U.S.  Plains /  Midwest but for Argentina and Brazil …South Africa… Australia Europe… the Ukraine… Southwest Russia and Kazakhstan and then when their growing seasons are up and running China and India  as well.

wow…. Ya know when  I think about it… I do a lot of work every day.  Plus the  web site and the FB  page.  But really it’s not work at all because if I couldn’t forecast weather I probably starve to death.  Right now for example  much of Argentina and Southeast Brazil bring areas have been devastated by a  drought and three prolonged key ways since mid December.    One location in West Central Argentina  — Santiago Del  Estero — reported a Max temperature of 50°  C   or  122 degrees  F.  Now that reading is probably in error but a lot of  places and Argentina on the 30th sought Max temperature of 40 degrees  C   or 105  degrees F.   However a monster  HEAT DOME  has moved into Eastern Brazil which is  going too slowly drift towards Bolivia and Paraguay over the next several days while at the same time a cold front moves into Central Argentina.  This cold  front is going stall because of the heat dome blocking its path and portions of  Central Argentina could see some pretty good rains…  But then  there may be yet another interval of significant heat in Argentina in mid February!

Now if we take a look over in Russia … several locations this morning January 31 temperatures drop to -28° C /-18F. !  Even more important is that for most of December and January the Ukraine and southwest Russia has seen much  above normal temperatures.  There  has not been a lot of snow cover and some of  the winter wheat crop has already tried to break ground in Southern Ukraine and
southwest Russia.  Now along comes as monster arctic HIGH at  1061 mb  over  Northwest Russia near Saint Petersburg which has spread the cold all way to the  Rhine river!  This morning in Bulgaria  many locations had temperatures dropped to zero degrees Fahrenheit .

If this sounds like I am  really enthusiastic about  weather worldwide…  I really am.  But the truth of the matter is that I get this  excited about ALL weather almost every single day.  As a result I can go out of my way to  post about how warm it’s going to be in the Middle Atlantic states 7 to 10 days out with the same amount of enthusiasm  that I have for a big winter storm.   So while it  IS true  that I do love East Coast snowstorms and East  Coast hurricanes a lot …I try not to let my fondness for those particular type of weather events distract me or by state in any way.  And one of the ways I do that is to get excited about weather which many of you may not feel is all that
great or noteworthy.

Some of you have noted over the past week  that  in the  debate   about the  idea of FEB 2012 turning   colder and  or stormier for the  eastern Conus … my overall perspective  or  attitude    has changed.    Lead me be upfront and frank about this     YES  my perception  and  views  about February 2012 has changed from   from  what it was last week.  Now  some of you…  may view me  as   “Johnny come lately“  to the party as other well known meteorologists have been talking about a much colder and potentially more winter like February 2012 for the last couple weeks.     OK fair enough.

But if you are going to make that same judgment then it’s only fair to note that some of these other same meteorologists have been banging the drum for a major pattern change over North America several times this winter and  as we all KNOW .. it has NOT  happened.    One energy trader made a joking comment  to  me   that this well known private meteorologist up in New England    “has forecasted seven of the last zero pattern changes…”     OUCH…

In the arguments I made  over the past few weeks against the  idea of  a  BIG  pattern change …  I tried  to drive home the importance and the significance of the huge Polar Vortex in the jet stream sitting up north of Alaska …on the Asian side of the Arctic circle.  Time and time again I stated that in order to get a pattern change in North America that feature has to move or break down or shift or do something  …because as long as it stays there  nothing is going to happen  regardless of what any model might or might not be  saying .

Now  we are  finally  seeing that huge Polar Vortex breaking down and changing.  That is why I am  more bullish about February than  I was before.    I set up by specific criteria or checklist of things which I had to see happen  FIRST  before I jump on board.  Now that I see those    things happening my perspective has changed.    To me is not important as to whether or  not to   “call it FIRST!  “   You don’t get extra money …the girls don’t think  you are any  sexier and you don’t dance any better.
I think it is very important to notice that few if any of the meteorologist   that have the  “ call it first  “  attitude never come out and say  ” the issue is uncertain”  or  “ the issue is undecided“.     Yet as we all know small changes often lead to very big variations   as you go further out in time.  Therefore the perspective / goal of always trying to   CALL IT FIRST  can only  Blow   up in your face because sometimes you can not call it First.  Sometimes you cannot  make the call   right now  based on the current data.

The problem is that if you decide to chase the  goal   of   “Calling  it  first “   is the most important thing as a professional meteorologist …  you may get on TV the most  but  in the end     you will  also  get the reputation   of    “forecasting seven of the last nonexistent pattern changes”.   In the end you will end up cutting off  your  nose despite  your face because all  of your forecasts  will be looked at with a great deal of skepticism and of little value to people who have serious money and  would d normally be interested in what you  have to say.

THE FEB 5-6  EVENT….  its coming  North !!!!!

The models at midday are clearly not in agreement.    All the models do  agree that a strong ocean Low was going to form and stall over Southeast Canada/ Newfoundland over the next 4 days .  This deep system will set up a strong  CONFLUENT  flow in the polar jet …  That will allow for a relatively cold area of High pressure over Eastern Canada  too develop  (near Montreal ).  So far so good.
However the European Model with its bias  to develop systems too far to the west …ends up closing off the upper Low over western KS.     At the same time the  Ridge  over the West Coast  of  N America –part of the +PNA    – begins to develop so the Ridge traps the upper Low  over  KS is delayed for several days.  The precipitation shield completely falls apart as  the Upper Low  tries to Under cut the Ridge and move into the Great Lakes.  By the time the precipitation finally reaches the Appalachians and the East Coast the cold air source over southeastern Canada is gone so whatever falls is mild and rain.  I believe that the European solution  for  FEB 5-6  at  Midday  is   NOT   the correct solution.

On the other hand      some   of you  out there  –and I   know you who are   because I have seen your posts on various whether forms–   are arguing that the flat weak Low   on the  12z and 18z JAN 31  GFS solutions   that moves off the NC / VA coast is underdone…  and / or that we will see a bigger Low pressure area come off the coast and it will come further  North…  Well that  is not correct either.

The problem is that strong northern branch of the jet stream cutting  across New England.  As long as that feature  is there and supplying the cold   air this Low pressure area cannot  possibly come UP the coast.  If anything  the Low will continue to get crushed and stay fairly flat and unorganized the cause of the strong polar jet over New England.

Now let’s be careful  with what I just said.    I did NOT  say the Low that comes off the North Carolina Virginia Coast cannot possibly come north the matter what.  What I said was that as long as that strong polar jet remains over  New England the Low cannot   come north.

My view is that we are going to see a system that will be struggling to hold together as it moves off the North Carolina were Virginia Coast.  It will bring some snow and ice to MD   se PA  s NJ     Northern DEL  and ice to rain over eastern  and central  VA.  It is possible that the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley could see pretty good ice event…  say from Charlottesville  North to Winchester and Martinsburg.

THEN WHAT?

The operational European this afternoon as well as the European ensemble was  very bullish on the much colder pattern coming into the U.S.  However I have to  let you know that a LOT of energy meteorologist treated the European model with a tremendous amount of skepticism and disbelief.  The general view is that the pattern is going to turn colder for a 10 or 15 day  period …say from   FEB 5/6   to   FEB 15-19.  But that the cold is not going to be nearly as severe as some other meteorologists have been screaming about for the past two weeks.

That argument is based on the fact that the Polar Vortex that forms in North America stays over northeastern Quebec Canada and is not really far enough to the south or west to drive the arctic air into  the CONUS.     Indeed if you look at the day 10 European map at the 500 mb  you will see a a very deep intense and large    PV  in Eastern Canada.   And as you can see the   COLD air   pool around the   PV is equally impressive .  But  notice that the  deep blues  and purples are not coming south into the U.S.   as the   arctic  cold is   pretty  much trapped around the immense circulation of the Polar vortex.

In order to get this severe cold into some portion of the Great Lakes or New England in the second or third week of February …the PV has got to come  further south and west more towards the northern Great Lakes.  The current  position as forecasted by the  Day 10 operational European  or the   day 10  European  Ensemble is just not far enough to the south and west to drive true  arctic air into the U.S..

In other words its cold but it is not bitter cold and it is not severe cold.  If you like cold weather   then  FEB 2012  is going to be the  pretty  good.  The cold pattern could last for a couple weeks of February.  But it may be that some have been overselling this colder  pattern by a significant amount.

One last point before I  close.  Since January 29 I have been talking  about the possibility of a significant East Coast winter storm threat sometime around February 10-11-12.  I continue to see the potential  on the 0z and 12z  models …on the  GFS  and European operational models .. and on the  GFS and  European    ensemble mean  patterns.  It’s quite likely over the next few days that the GFS model in particular   will  LOSE  the  possible    southern Low….  By either crushing a completely in the cold a pattern or by losing the   southern feature.  My view is that the system for February   10-11-12 has far more serious potential then the  FEB 5-6   event .

Again this sort of confidence I have  for this  potential threat may seem to some of you to be a surprise or hard to figure given my reluctance to forecast the pattern change earlier in January.     But as I said many times once you know what sort of features   at  850  700    500    and 300 mb  mb   and what   those  maps  look  like for  big East coast snowstorms…   then the   favorable  pattern are  rather easy to detect several days out.    When the pattern is there  I am   there  and if the  potential is there  I can be rather positive about the chances if I think it’s warranted.   But if the pattern is not there I don’t give a hoot  in  hell  what  ANY weather model   is  depicting or  not   depicting — I won’t jump and I will be pessimistic .

My goal with East Coast snowstorm has always been to walk the line where you can see it coming and tell people it’s going to be big event several days out but not to oversell it or overhyped the event  just to get viewer clicks or readings .  My goal has been and will always be  here at wxrisk.com when it comes to East Coast  snowstorms… that If I say  its   coming   it is…  And when I say it’s going
to be serious   it is.

Well that’s the goal anyway.

  Before you read the  forecast   BELOW  Please    click on     THIS   LINK .   There are some  points  I need to make   before you read the forecast below   

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.AS   OF  210   EDT 29 JAN    2011 ……    If   you are running a  weather   sensitive Business…   such as a   Propane or Energy…  Mountains resorts… Marinas …. landscaping….  or  construction  and    you need    DETAILED    two and three   week forecasts  you  really should   try  VA   BUSINESS  Weather  Newsletter    ( The   VA Business  Weather Newsletter   is a paid  subscription    service.   If you are interested    send me an   Email at  wxrisk@comcast.net  or   at   facebook.com/ wxrisk  )

 CLICK  ON  THE  MAPS   FOR   FULL  SIZE 

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THIS  COMING   WEEKEND      (FEB 3-4-5)

SUMMARY 

The overall pattern across North America  is  GOING   to  turn in  major way   over the next 10 days.   JAN  31  FEB 1 and FEB 2  will be    SUPER MILD   over  all of MD VA  WVA  NC  DE … with   much of NC  and   eastern half of  VA   reaching  70 degrees or close to it   on the 31st and FEB 1  and Low 60s on the  1st.      A Low will track  through the  Great Lakes and   Northern New England  FEB  3…   and that  Low drives a  cold front   into  the region   FEB  3-4 … with the front stalling over  TN and  NC.    All the Models  show a  2ND Low  developing on the front  FEB 5  and this Low COULD  become a  Big  east coast winter  storm.  IF  there is  enough cold air in place   Northern NC   central and  sw VA    and eastern  MD …COULD  see a Ice  event  and   WVA   western and central  MD   could see a   good size snow event.    BUT   some data  does  NOT  have enough  cold air in place over va nc   for  snow or ice…  so this forecast is  VEERRRRRRY risky.
FRIDAY   FEB  3	SATURDAY   FEB 4	SUNDAY  FEB 5 temps here may be   significantly lower