Civitas Poll Shows Etheridge Closest to McCrory in Gov Race

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March 2, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. – A new poll from the John W. Pope Civitas Institute shows former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory well ahead of his most-likely Democratic challengers in the race for governor.

Registered voters were asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today and the candidates were McCrory, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, a Democrat. Of those who responded, 46 percent picked McCrory. Only 32 percent chose Etheridge.

The margin of victory was even larger when the poll asked about a matchup between McCrory and Lt. Governor Walter Dalton. McCrory was favored by 49 percent, compared to 30 percent for Dalton.

The only other widely known Democratic hopeful in the race, state Rep. Bill Faison (D-Orange), trailed 21 points behind McCrory.

“McCrory has a solid base of support,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. For example, 36 percent of the respondents said they definitely would vote for McCrory; only 21 percent of the respondents said the same about Etheridge.

“With 19 percent undecided in the poll, and other things being equal, Etheridge would not only have to win his primary, but have to win over a big majority of the undecideds to triumph in the fall,” De Luca added. “A lot can happen between now and November. But right now McCrory’s campaign looks to be in a very good position.”

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling see www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Full text of questions

If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican, or Bob Etheridge, the Democrat?

46%    Total McCrory
32%    Total Etheridge

36%     Definitely McCrory
9%       Probably McCrory
2%       Lean McCrory
19%     Undecided
2%       Lean Etheridge
9%       Probably Etheridge
21%     Definitely Etheridge

If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican, or Walter Dalton, the Democrat?

49%    Total McCrory
30%    Total Dalton

37%     Definitely McCrory
10%     Probably McCrory
2%       Lean McCrory
20%     Undecided
2%       Lean Dalton
7%       Probably Dalton
20%     Definitely Dalton
2%       Refused

If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Bill Faison, the Democrat?

48%    Total McCrory
27%    Total Faison

38%     Definitely McCrory
9%       Probably McCrory
1%       Lean McCrory
22%     Undecided
2%       Lean Faison
8%       Probably Faison
18%     Definitely Faison
3%       Refused

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted Feb. 27-28, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

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