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ECRI - Why The Recession Call Stands
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Written by Doug Short | Thursday, 15 March 2012 16:59
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 ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT March 15, 2012 Doug Short Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice. Let's start with the current state of the economy. A couple of weeks ago, we publicly highlighted ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index (USCI). It's important to understand that the USCI isn't a random concoction of data, but rather the gold standard for measuring current economic growth, as it summarizes the key coincident economic... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Written by The Economist | Tuesday, 13 March 2012 14:26
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THE ECONOMIST March 12, 2012"THE most beautiful deleveraging yet seen" is how Ray Dalio describes what is now going on in America's economy. As America has gone through the necessary process of reducing its debt-to-income ratio since the financial crash of 2008, he reckons its policymakers have done well in mixing painful stuff like debt restructuring with injections of cash to keep demand growing. Europe's deleveraging, by contrast, is "ugly". Mr Dalio's views are taken seriously. He made a fortune betting before the crash that the world had taken on too much debt and would need to slash it. Last year alone, his... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Financial Repression Has Come Back To Stay
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Written by Carmen Reinhart | Tuesday, 13 March 2012 13:55
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BLOOMBERG March 12, 2012 Carmen M. Reinhart As they have before in the aftermath of financial crises or wars, governments and central banks are increasingly resorting to a form of "taxation" that helps liquidate the huge overhang of public and private debt and eases the burden of servicing that debt. Such policies, known as financial repression, usually involve a strong connection between the government, the central bank and the financial sector. In the U.S., as in Europe, at present, this means consistent negative real interest rates (yielding less than the rate of inflation) that are equivalent to a tax on bondholders... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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US Deficit Increases - Nothing To Worry About
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Written by Tyler Durden | Monday, 12 March 2012 19:35
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ZEROHEDGE March 12, 2012 Tyler Durden A few days ago we noted that based on preliminary data, the February budget deficit would hit $229 billion (yes, nearly one quarter of a trillion in one month, about where real Greek GDP is these days) - the largest single monthly deficit in history. Unfortunately, this number was low: the final February deficit was just released and the actual print is $231.7 billion. It also means that in the first 5 months of the fiscal year, the US has raked up $580 billion in deficits, oddly matched by $727 billion in new debt issuance, 25% more new debt issued than needed to fund... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Fisher: Investors Should Prepare For Less Easing
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Written by Steve Matthers and Aki Ito | Tuesday, 06 March 2012 15:24
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BLOOMBERG March 5, 2012 Steve Matthers and Aki Ito Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he opposes additional Fed purchases of securities and urged Wall Street to get ready to become less dependent on monetary easing. "I would suggest to you that, if the data continue to improve, however gradually, the markets should begin preparing themselves for the good Dr. Fed to wean them from their dependency rather than administer further dosage," Fisher said today in a speech in Dallas. Financial markets "have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided" after the 2008 financial crisis, he... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Will Oil Continue Heading Higher
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Written by Frank Holmes | Tuesday, 06 March 2012 14:54
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US GLOBAL INVESTORS Frank Holmes CEO and Chief Investment Officer Does it feel like it costs an arm and a leg to fill your car these days? While consumers may continue to feel the bite from higher gasoline prices, investors can use these rising prices to their advantage. Beginning in March, crude oil has a seasonal wind at its back. For nearly 30 years, the third month of the year has been the best month for crude oil. As you can see in the chart below, over the past 5-, 15- and 30-year cycles, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices head higher in March, and have generally continued to climb through September. On... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Written by Karen Damato | Monday, 05 March 2012 21:45
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Wall Street Journal March 5, 2012 Karen Damato Interview With Rob Arnott, Chairman of Research Affiliates If you're a baby boomer, you've got a big problem when it comes to the investment returns you can expect in retirement: It's the sheer number of other boomers who are also getting ready to leave the workplace and rely on their portfolios to help pay the bills.That's the depressing conclusion Robert D. Arnott, a portfolio manager, asset-management executive and inveterate researcher, has come to in more than 20 years of studying demographic trends and financial-market results. The problem in a nutshell: The ratio of... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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I Wouldn't Touch The Markets With A 100-ft Pole
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Written by Becket Adams | Monday, 05 March 2012 13:36
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THEBLAZE March 3, 2012 Becket Adams He was an architect of one of the biggest tax cuts in U.S. history. He spent much of his career after politics using borrowed money to take over companies. He targeted the riskiest ones that most investors shunned — car-parts makers, textile mills. That is one image of David Stockman, the former White House budget director who, after resigning in protest over deficit spending, made a fortune in corporate buyouts. But spend time with him and you discover this former wunderkind of the Reagan revolution is something else — a scared investor who doesn't own a single stock for fear... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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It's An Aweful Time To Invest
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Written by John Hussman | Monday, 05 March 2012 13:10
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HUSSMAN FUNDS March 5, 2012 John P. Hussman, Ph.D. Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market. Rather, it is a market that again stands near the highs of an extended but volatile trading range. I am convinced that the breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions. Importantly, the market is again characterized by an extreme set of conditions that we've previously associated... Joomla Templates and Joomla Extensions by ZooTemplate.Com |
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Michael Lewis - Blindness Of Wall Street
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Written by The Slate | Friday, 02 March 2012 21:17
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Michael Lewis' clear, concise and scathing commentary about the blindness of Wall Street. According to Michael our future generations will look back upon this period with disbelief as to how we could have allowed our financial system to run amok.
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