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Boston Marathon Weather Forecast and 12-Year History

If you've ever wondered how much Boston Marathon weather conditions influence race finish times, we've got your answers.

[Also see our Exclusive Boston Marathon Coverage, with everything else you need to know.]

More often than not, forecasts (links below) can be unreliable as the weather changes unexpectedly on race day. And what you experience at the starting line in Hopkinton can differ radically from what you'll face once past Heartbreak Hill, heading toward Boston.

Variability in conditions has been significant in recent years, from one of the hottest races in decades (2004) to a wind-whipped chilly rainfest in 2007. See weather conditions for the last 10 years below.

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Wondering how weather affects finish times? Temperatures averaging above 60 make a clear difference. And current forecasts for Hopkinton and Boston indicate that 60+ degrees may be reached.

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As most Boston runners met qualifying standards, the average finish times in any weather will be faster than regular runners at races like the Chicago Marathon. But comparing the two along the lines of temperature/speed correlations, there are some similarities when it comes to the heat.

The 2010 Chicago Marathon was a hot one, temperatures soaring into the 80s. A total 36,159 runners made it through high temperatures to cross the finish line. While the heat did not rival 2007, and the mid-event cancellation of that race, the 2010 race was marked by a much higher than average finish time -- 4:43:38 -- and roughly 2000 runners dropping out. And this result was consistent with an analysis we had conducted before the event.

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Before the Chicago race, we wondered: how do differing temperatures impact average finish times? We plotted the average finish times and average race-day temperatures for the last 11 years to find the answer.  And it seemed to be generally good news for runners as long as temperatures stay below 65 degrees. However, when the average temperature soared over 65, average times would drop, we noted.

And that's just what happened in 2010: high 70s average temperature, and a 4:43:38 average finish time.

In earlier years, when the average temperatures are between 40 and 65 degrees, average finish times may vary within a range of between 4:19 to 4:27. Only an 8-minute difference. Not bad. The exception year was 2008, when a 57 degree average temperature was met with a very slow finish time; we'd venture to say this is because runners were being extremely cautious, in the wake of the 2007 meltdown.

What conditions will Boston marathon runners experience on race day? Time will tell, in more ways than one.
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